dreco.eth

@BillenAndreas

Chicago

Joined November 2014

78 Following

48 Followers

97 Posts

BillenAndreas retweeted

NoLimit

@NoLimitGains

about 2 months ago

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL Nobody’s talking about this, but I will. Since 1970, the median home is up 17x. The S&P is up 75x. Home prices are anchored to construction costs, local supply and demand, rents, and physical constraints on land and labor. So what is the S&P actually tracking? Margin debt just hit $1.28 trillion. All-time record. Up 36% in one year. Private credit blew past $2 trillion, most of it sitting outside any regulatory framework with real teeth. Hedge funds are running Treasury basis trades at up to 18x leverage, betting on spreads measured in fractions of a percent, with $1.85 trillion on the line. In 2008 you could at least point at the problem. Subprime, CDOs, Lehman at 30:1. Now it is scattered across private funds and derivative books that do not show up on any balance sheet the public can read. The Fed has flagged margin debt, private credit, and basis trades in separate reports this year. Flagging something and fixing it are very different things. Markets do not crash when things get bad. They crash when everyone holding the leverage needs the exit at the same time. Look at that chart again. Then tell me the 75x is organic. By the way, my next big investment will be posted on @InTheAssembly Follow them before it’s too late. If you don’t, you’ll regret it.

$NoLimitGains's tweet photo. 🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL Nobody’s talking about this, but I will. Since 1970, the median home is up 17x. The S&P is up 75x. Home prices are anchored to construction costs, local supply and demand, rents, and physical constraints on land and labor. So what is the S&P actually tracking? Margin debt just hit $1.28 trillion. All-time record. Up 36% in one year. Private credit blew past $2 trillion, most of it sitting outside any regulatory framework with real teeth. Hedge funds are running Treasury basis trades at up to 18x leverage, betting on spreads measured in fractions of a percent, with $1.85 trillion on the line. In 2008 you could at least point at the problem. Subprime, CDOs, Lehman at 30:1. Now it is scattered across private funds and derivative books that do not show up on any balance sheet the public can read. The Fed has flagged margin debt, private credit, and basis trades in separate reports this year. Flagging something and fixing it are very different things. Markets do not crash when things get bad. They crash when everyone holding the leverage needs the exit at the same time. Look at that chart again. Then tell me the 75x is organic. By the way, my next big investment will be posted on @InTheAssembly Follow them before it’s too late. If you don’t, you’ll regret it.$

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