Biotech💯.Day-trader. 16 years experience. Long/Short/Options. Always look for +\- perspectives in Biotech. Not Investment Advice.Catalyst Trades Focus 🚀🚀🚀.
Reasons I like $SPRB here 🧬:
📊 High institutional ownership - 91.7% held by funds inc Citadel, Wellington, Balyasny
📉 Short interest 13.4% of a ~2.7M share float - squeeze setup on any catalyst
🏦 Novo Holdings (Novo Nordisk’s $150B arm) - 3.9% strategic stake
📋 BLA filing Q4 2026 - Priority Review likely - PDUFA mid-2027
🩸 Fatal pediatric disease - zero approved competition globally
⚡️ Full FDA fast-track stack - BTD + Accelerated Approval + Priority Review eligible
💰 $69M raise this week at $50 - Leerink, Guggenheim, Oppenheimer - overallotment exercised in full next day
🇭🇰 Harbour BioMed 3.8% stake - exercised into equity - not passive
📊 3/3 analysts Buy - Oppenheimer, Leerink, H.C. Wainwright - avg PT $217 high $283 - 210%+ upside from ~$70
😈 Shkreli long - $500 PT - “will be approved - new standard of care.” He’s more often right than wrong - see this as good for a catalyst move
🎯 Single clean asset - M&A magnet - Novo already inside the tent
⚠️ Key risk - CMC execution into Q4 BLA filing
It’s a rare one in terms of all the points lining up and where it is right now on valuation - one to watch👀 Long $SPRB
$XBI $IBB
BREAKING: Solar energy accounted for 12.8% of US electricity production in May, surpassing coal at 12.2%, marking the first time this has occurred in a full calendar month.
Solar generation surged +17.0% YoY in May while coal output declined -11.0%, continuing a historic shift in the US power mix.
This shift has been supported by years of rapid solar deployment, while rising electricity demand from AI data centers further boosting investment in new generation capacity.
As a result, solar and battery storage together accounted for 91% of all new US power capacity installed in Q1 2026.
Meanwhile, natural gas remains the dominant source at 37% of the US electricity mix.
The AI revolution is accelerating America's energy transition.
$OTLK - little nibble. They’ve hit that ATM hard this morning. This was $2.50 prior to the last decision. Seems like a solid R:R here. Will likely run back over $1 at least with 2 month review.
$NVS “We are always looking for opportunities that fit our core therapeutic areas… We want to do deals that make sense, and we have the capital to be able to do that”
$MLYS is especially relevant because CV and renal medicine are among $NVS's core therapeutic areas
BO soon?
2 quotes I jotted down but whole thing worth listening too.
$MLYS CEO re: buying back royalty "whether alone with a partner or if someday a company wanted to acquire us, in either case it builds value"
CFO: "buying back the uncapped royalty is not incongruent with a BD strategy"
Interesting perspective on $ABVX - after hours action is crazy. I did buy a piece @$73.50 and ready to sell at this level if it pulls back. Only because @A_May_MD knows his shit.
So $ABVX went from ~$180 after hours to ~$69 on the slide below, which people have (misguidedly IMO) interpreted as a cancer risk in the high dose arm.
This looks very much like noise - 2 cases (one each, a rate of 0.5%) of the 2 most common cancers in the world (breast and prostate). Zero cases in the low dose arm. NMSC is a throwaway side note and almost always age related - as they noted they *were* in this case. The only thing to adjudicate is the prostate and breast cases.
They also noted ZERO cases in the long term extension study from phase 2, which consisted of well over 100 patients and has had some patients on drug for 7+ years, ALL of them on drug for >2 years.
2 cases (again, 1 each) of the 2 most common cancers in the world among all those patients (P2+P3) over all those years. This is noise.
Let's say you *don't* think this is noise for the high dose...
Well, then it's a good thing that the low dose showed zero malignancy signal vs placebo and *still* came in with efficacy vastly above the market's expectations (39% delta vs 40% for the high dose).
The low dose with 39.3% delta and no cancer signal is right there with the (previously) highest reported efficacy drug, Rinvoq...Except, Rinvoq has a black box warning that has *5* bullet points:
-Serious infections "leading to hospitalization or death"
-Higher rate of all cause mortality "including sudden cardiovascular death"
-MALIGNANCIES "including lymphomas and lung cancers"
-Higher rate of MACE (including heart attacks and strokes)
-Thrombosis (including pulmonary embolism)
So, let's say you do think this gets a black box warning for malignancy risk (even despite all the notes above, and the fact that the low dose had zero cases of non-NMSC malignancy and was balanced with placebo on NMSC)...
...then you are looking at a WORST CASE scenario of 1 bullet on a black box warning versus *5* for Rinvoq (and the other JAK inhibitors).
The 2nd highest clinical remission delta for a non black box warning drug ever is...Entyvio at 26%....
So you have 2 JAKi with 5 black box warning "points" and remission deltas of 39.8% (Rinvoq) and 30% (Xeljanz).
Again, WORST case, $ABVX gets 1 black box warning "point" despite all the evidence that this is just noise and had 39.3% and 40.3% remission delta.
Want something without a black box? You're looking at 20-26% delta. And again, that's *if* this is actually something the FDA doesn't think is noise. You've got the 25mg dose with literally zero signal versus placebo and 7+year P2 dataset saying zero signal as well with many of those patients having been on higher than 25 mg doses.
At $70 AH this is a $6B company? Absurd from my perspective. At worst this is the most efficacious drug in the industry with a black box warning 1/5th as bad as the JAKis that do big numbers in this disease at WORST.
$OTLK - little nibble. They’ve hit that ATM hard this morning. This was $2.50 prior to the last decision. Seems like a solid R:R here. Will likely run back over $1 at least with 2 month review.
$ARTV FDA alignment on a single Phase 3 trial evaluating AlloNK plus rituximab in 150 refractory RA patients with ACR50 at six months as the primary endpoint
$ARTV FDA alignment on a single Phase 3 trial evaluating AlloNK plus rituximab in 150 refractory RA patients with ACR50 at six months as the primary endpoint