@vtchakarova You have been arguing for some time that a ceasefire and a de facto frozen conflict are the most likely outcome of the war in 2026. Given recent developments, do you still see that as the most likely scenario, or has your view changed?
@vtchakarova Curious, what is your prediction? I believe the US will entangle with Russia and put the Nord Stream pipelines back into service, while earning their share both by selling their LNG and making money on the pipes.
@donaldtusk The real problem is the constant finger pointing and politicians behaving like influencers. No one addresses the root cause of the disagreement… instead, everyone blames others.
Ich halte die Medienkritik am „Nein“ von Kanzler Merz für einseitig. Durch jahrzehntelange Zuwanderung, vor allem aus muslimisch geprägten Ländern, leben heute etwa 5,5 Millionen Muslime in Deutschland. In Teilen dieser Communities gibt es anhaltende Integrationsprobleme, Radikalisierungsrisiken und Spannungen, die bei Nahost Konflikten immer wieder aufflammen. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist ein klares „Das ist nicht unser Krieg“ keine bloße Schwäche, sondern eine strategische Rücksichtnahme auf die innere Stabilität. Natürlich spielen auch fehlende Kriegsziele, wirtschaftliche Interessen und die öffentliche Ablehnung eine Rolle.
Die Realität einer teilweise polarisierten Gesellschaft darf man bei außenpolitischen Entscheidungen nicht ignorieren.
@vtchakarova I will believe it when I see the picture… Trump would have posted it if he had one. He paraded Maduro through New York, and this is a bigger fish.
The core issue is the absence of any coherent plan or strategic vision, neither for their own countries nor for Ukraine. What they fail to recognize is that war fatigue has taken hold across Europe long ago. European publics are no longer prepared to extend unconditional support to Ukraine. Politicians continue to project their own narrative onto the public sphere, a narrative that bears little resemblance to the lived reality and priorities of ordinary Europeans. The coming elections will make that divergence clear.
There are only two options to end the war:
1. EU arms Ukraine more and joins the war, closing the skies and boots on the ground. Calculating that this will push Russia to the negotiation table, and the war will be quickly over.
2. Drop Ukraine/Zelensky, pushing him to give up Dombas. Calculating that Russia will not demand more, and will not restart the war in a couple of years.
So what will it be?