We've spent time pressure-testing our Expected Goals model against the most popular public models in hockey: @JFreshHockey's https://t.co/Bhn1QMaeSD, @EvolvingHockey, @NatStatTrick and @MoneyPuckdotcom.
The verdict: across 260 skaters (1,000 TOI minimum) last season, our on-ice results track https://t.co/Bhn1QMaeSD at a 0.99 correlation, about half a point apart on average. Built completely independently. Landed in the same place. We measure certain sequences better, while they measure others better.
That's not a knock on anyone else. The public models split into two camps, and the differences come from measuring the game's sequences differently.
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Suzuki is better than Matthews right now, and that’s not bait.
Suzuki: 5.58 WAR / 6.23 xWAR
Matthews: 1.72 WAR / 2.24 xWAR
Suzuki also has the edge in durability, defensive impact, contract value ($21.9 million surplus), and our 2026-27 projection.
Right now, this isn’t close. It’s Suzuki.
#GoHabsGo #LeafsForever #NickSuzuki #AustonMatthews #NHL
@kckrebs37@the_habitant It would be interesting, but what if Europe starts promoting and taking over half the league? Then we got a whole lot of travel and logistics issues. Time zone difference would be wild between west coast and European teams.
Sports that add the most years to your life:
1. Tennis (+9.7 years)
2. BADMINTON (+6.2 years)
3. Soccer (+4.7 years)
4. Cycling (+3.7 years)
5. Swimming (+3.4 years)
@CorsiMerchant@hockeyalchemy I work off results and compare them to the gold standard of publicly available models. This isn’t my first rodeo. Your animosity over someone using AI is weird. Which AI hurt you?
We measured every 5v5 shift in the NHL for three straight seasons. 442,621 of them.
We asked one question: when this player is on the ice, how much does the other team's offense shrink? Adjusted for teammates, competition, zone starts, and score.
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@mndamico@StarrandDamico When salary cap rises, player salaries go up. It is a mathematical certainty. I don’t think the players will take issue with big free agent signings. The culture is above it.