BDC

Not financial advice. We may hold long or short positions in any securities mentioned, and may buy or sell such securities without prior disclosure.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

$SNAP is a uncrowded bc Evan's track record as CEO and capital allocator is historically bad.

Would you invest in a hedge fund that loses 40% a year? Nobody would.

The bet the bulls are making, the few of us, is that @evanspiegel will see the light and do the right thing. I believe in him

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

If only Evan at $SNAP had been sleeping around. Would be a banner year for Blue Duck! Sigh.

Disclaimer: totally kidding. I like Evan. And I think SNAP equity has potential. And Evan is a good human which is why eventually he will do right be shareholders.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

@GavinSBaker I think the board is worried about the news that hasn't dropped yet. When the media goes for blood, suddenly new revelations always appear. It's a sad reality and also an unfortunate aspect of mob nature to go for the kill shot when a great person is down.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

UMichigan knew that their football coach was sleeping w/ his secretary and giving her perks and that is was a distraction. But they didn't do anything about it until it went public. Institutions will always cover up until they can't and then when they do throw the leader under the bus, they do it dramatically to cover their own butts while pretending they had no knowledge of it prior. I agree that an extra-marital affair should not on its face be grounds for termination of a legendary founder. But what else does the board know that maybe we don't yet know?

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

Good post. I also see some other X users saying that this could be a clearing event. I don't think so. This could rather mark the beginnings of discovery. What lies beneath, few people know other than Jensen.

[PAA Research @ActAccordingly]

As the headlines and memes arrive fast and furious on this feed regarding the latest revelations on Jensen, one name from yesteryear keeps coming to mind: Hank Greenberg.

Is Jensen the Hank Greenberg of this cycle? The circumstances of their departures are quite different, but the implications could have meaningful parallels. $AIG had its tendrils in EVERYTHING at the peak of Hank's powers, just as $NVDA is in every nook and cranny of the AI trade today. Both companies ascended to an endemic status in their respective industries because of their leader's guile, will, aggressive use of capital, and other "financing arrangements". We know what happened with $AIG and the financial system in the post Hank-era, what's in store for $NVDA and all of the AI ecosystem players that rely on Jensen's backstops and other forms of circularity?

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

Not sure Jensen gets ousted on the China spy affair alone if it was just an honest mistake.

Maybe the news of a 2nd affair with a subordinate would be enough to do it. But since that story just broke, would think they would investigate more before deciding he has to go. Maybe they knew this story was coming so they were ready. But also, he should get some due process given how critical he is to the company he built.

Also possible that their preliminary investigations of these matters turned up other misconduct more directly associated with the company. That's the risk which is also a risk for the entire AI trade.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

Jensen could be out. No obvious successor here. Not a deep bench at the company with largely flat org chart. Does this have potential to unravel the house of cards of circular deals? How critical was he in shaping those deals and whatever else was being worked on?

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

@P_Remarks from a DAU standpoint I'd much rather be SNAP where mins per user remains firm and the total user number is stagnant off a large base than be PINS or RDDT where the former really doesnt have any real use case in an AI world and the latter is losing all its Google traffic.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

@SnorlaxCapital @P_Remarks Yeah $nflx traded at 35x ev/ebitda then too.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

Cost / employee is not efficient.

The market is not dumb. There's a reason the stock went up after our letter advocating for external Specs funding and a reason it went down after the Q3 earnings with zero new information on that front and an ad revenue miss while pulling DAU disclosure.

A more decisive demonstration of concern for shareholders is obviously required at this point.

Specs remains the elephant in the room. Cool product. Potential for sure. Close to mass market commercialization? No, not the current version at least.

Earning the right to invest in Specs only happens if you can grow ads dd%. Instead its decelerated to lsd%. One issue or another is a hallmark of the Snap advertising business every quarter at this point.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

Evan, it's disingenuous to offer Waymo as evidence of an instance where they should NOT have raised external capital. Fact is, $GOOGL Search is one of the most profitable and dominant businesses of all time supporting billions of cumulative earnings, FCF, and trillions in market cap. The margin for error at $SNAP is much thinner; the cumulative score card at SNAP measured by stock price, is not even in the same universe as $GOOGL. Sure they could have funded Waymo internally. Maybe they should have. But SNAP is not GOOGL. Not even in the same conversation.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

Evan - I like that you're on X doing this. It's an improvement and shows that there is a care factor. That said, there's a lot more within your control here which would unlock value. For example, $SNAP cost / employee remains substantially higher than peers (ex META who has their own spending issues which have weighed on the stock). Cost / employee is ~2x $RDDT, for instance.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

$spy puts were dirt cheap, yesterday

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

@LogicalThesis The weekly workshop is jotting down what’s up, what’s down, and what’s “so-so”?

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

Evan - the real litmus test here will be if you sell any stock now that the window will reopen.

Also, why even discuss +15% ad revenue growth in the annual letter right before printing +3% for N. America? This is not good messaging. It also distracts from strong "Other" revenue growth which should be highlighted more.

Obviously, Specs and associated capital deployment remains the elephant in the room.

[BDC @BlueDuckCap]

Jassy said that $AMZN capex will increase meanigfully in 2027, which we know is off a base of $220B in 2026. Before the AI build, the average annual capex increase was ~$9B. A "meaningful" increase in 2027 would be $90-100B or so, putting 2027 capex around $315B.

Given that OCF has also increased nicely, approaching $200mn annually exiting this year, and +34%.

At what point does the story, or will it, become about 2028 and 2029 positive FCF inflection?

Even if capex stays high (say $300B which is crazy but who knows), assuming OCF growth continues which seems reasonable, we start to look at substantial FCF most likely hitting in 2028. There's a path to $450B in OCF (2029/2030) (less $300mn in capex equalling $150B in FCF.

It's also possible that capex intensity of the build phase steps DOWN, just given the size of this spend. What if 2030 capex is back to $220B? We are looking at run rate FCF of $230B annually which is $23 in fcf/share.

This is the map that Jassy and Bezos see. Its a long term plan and it does not match with the short term-focused market. But if they execute, the map is highly compelling and does justify today's spend cycle. Note that the highest FCF ever for AMZN prior to this cycle was $26B. So we are looking to spend for 3-4 years to 9-10x FCF on the other side.

[Jasper Ridley @JasperRidley]

This is why $STIM is more asymmetric than any molecule company. Usona beats $CMPS to market?

They will still need a channel to get to market, with reimbursement for $STIM the same either way. More competition for drug developers just means more volume for $STIM.

Probably wrong, NFA.

[Jasper Ridley @JasperRidley]

$LFST is one of the largest mental health clinic network. As they explore new treatment modalities, they are finding TMS and SPRAVATO has striking efficacy.

Would seem to make $STIM pretty valuable.

https://t.co/UGYv0jnCSR

Probably wrong, NFA.