M

This, That, The Other. Always be early. Follow volume. PwC, Thunderbird DYODD

[M @BNTrading]

Thursday all-nighter filing Goldman with the guys/ Saturday early A/C inventory with the wife. #AuditLife ❤

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

Went on Bloomberg - Anthropic and OpenAI are dangerous and unsustainable companies that shouldn’t IPO. The AI bubble is a con and retail investors are the marks.
AI doesn’t have ROI, it’s nothing like AWS/Uber, and it’s got no post-bubble recovery story.
https://t.co/ROww0H5ugs

[Peter H. Diamandis, MD @PeterDiamandis]

If you think SpaceX is a rocket company with an internet business, you're basically valuing Amazon on book sales in 2005.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️The S&P 500 is near record highs but something unusual is happening beneath the surface:

The 1-month implied correlation of S&P 500 stocks is down to the lowest level in at least 2 years.

This means options markets expect individual stocks to move almost entirely independently of each other, a historically rare divergence.

This also points to an extremely concentrated market driven by a few mega-cap tech stocks.

Correlation this low is a warning sign, particularly when the VIX is also low, as the combination leaves the index highly vulnerable to a self-reinforcing drawdown if sentiment shifts.

Is this a calm before the storm?

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

Traders see a deal.

Chevron sees shortages.

One side is trading headlines. The other is watching inventories vanish.

Physics usually wins.

#Oil #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #Chevron #Commodities #EnergySecurity #OilPrices

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

US oil majors warned that inventory drawdowns that cushioned supply disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East are reaching their limits, setting the stage for higher crude prices.

Above-normal inventories at the start of the year, along with releases from strategic reserves and waivers on sanctioned oil, helped offset the impact of the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about a fifth of global daily crude flows.
#oott https://t.co/bLCaP5VGqk

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Commodity market guru Jeff Currie on Pres. Trump's so-called deals with Iran:

“Five deal announcements, zero closes… sell the tweet, buy the molecule.”

HEADLINES LIE, MOLECULES DON’T.

[Energy Headline News @OilHeadlineNews]

Jeff Currie on the next oil price spike:

"Demand is above supply. We're drawing inventories, borrowing oil from the future until we hit tank bottoms... We're going to be out of oil going into the summer."

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.

The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.

Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.

Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Oil markets have moved into deep backwardation, with current prices far above future contracts.

This indicates a massive shortage in oil for current delivery.

STAY LONG OIL.

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

I forgot how great this was:

[M @BNTrading]

@WillbBTC Hits hard

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

“If the Strait of Hormuz opens after April, we cannot provide an accurate oil price forecast. We will have crossed too deep into the Rubicon. This will have been the largest oil supply outage in the history of the oil market by a magnitude of 4x. Fundamental market theories will no longer apply here because there’s no price for outright shortages. When a market runs out of fuel, it just runs out.”

[M @BNTrading]

@TicTocTick @grok is this true?

[M @BNTrading]

@NoLimitGains Nervously rode for a tic, hoping the stop wouldn't hit an air pocket like that - LOL. Dumb thrill, but whew.

[M @BNTrading]

@Nostre_damus And, we're red! 😬 No wait, now we're green! 😃

[M @BNTrading]

@ThomasSowell Said no Kennedy, ever..

[M @BNTrading]

@DI313_ Or, by 9:25am ET Monday morning..

[Brian Sullivan @SullyCNBC]

It seems increasingly clear - as I have been talking about for weeks - that there are at least two (or more) warring factions inside Iran vying for control of the country or parts of it.

One side saying all clear, the other still threatening to blow up ships, as we saw this morning.

We may be witnessing an internal fight for the future of Iran. It's unclear and difficult to get much real news from a closed regime, but let's hope for a positive outcome for the bulk of the Iranian people, who have had nothing to do with any of this and just want to live in peace and not in fear of their own government.

[M @BNTrading]

IRGC decides who crosses the #StraitofHormuz

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Audio recording from the IRGC’s message to tankers on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

Oil just dropped 11% because the Strait of Hormuz is “open.”
Let me show you why the market is making one of the biggest mistakes of 2026