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You need to start looking at the market in a more ‘streamlined’ way, without overcomplicating things: the point isn’t to try and catch every single move, but to understand when the price breaks out of the range and how it reacts.
When you see a deviation – that is, the price temporarily breaking above or below the range – it isn’t immediately a signal to chase. It’s a piece of information. It’s telling you that there’s a demand for liquidity out there.
If that deviation is then repeated (double deviation), everything changes: it means that level has been tested several times and the market is clearly showing where it wants to react. That is the real confirmation.
At that point, you shouldn’t enter at random, but wait for the price to return and start forming a clearer structure. That’s when it makes sense to switch to a shorter timeframe and look for a more precise entry, without forcing it. (Rarely test it first if you want to do so with a small position size)
This way of reading the market always applies, whether you’re looking for a long or a short. The concept doesn’t change, only the direction: above, you work from a bearish perspective; below, from a bullish perspective.
In practice, stop chasing the price and start working on these extremes: that’s where the market becomes much clearer and gives you simple invalidations.
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A top and a bottom do not arise in the same way because they arrive in two opposite emotional and technical worlds.
A top is formed when everything still seems strong: people are euphoric, buying high, wanting to participate in the last part of the trend. The price often accelerates, breaking out above the highs, everyone projects new targets and almost no one thinks about protecting themselves. Behind the scenes, however, those who have been in for months are starting to sell off, taking advantage of the enthusiasm of those who are late to the party. From the outside, it still looks like a bull market, but inside there is distribution. The final movement can be rapid, almost theatrical: final surge → sharp reversal.
A bottom, on the other hand, occurs when no one believes in it anymore. There is no enthusiasm, no FOMO, only fatigue, resignation and mistrust. People sell because they are forced to, not because they want to: stop, margin call, burnt narrative. Capitulation can be violent, but the real bottom is not that candle: it is what comes after. It is usually a flat, slow, unsexy area where volatility is crushed, volumes change quality and those who accumulate silently begin to emerge while the public no longer looks at the charts.
A top is noisy.
A bottom is silent.
The top arises from the desire not to miss the opportunity;
the bottom arises from surrender, from the fact that the masses have stopped to try.
That's why a top can be quick and euphoric , while a bottom requires time, consolidation and patience. It's a foundation that is built when everyone is mentally absent, not a perfect point that appears out of nowhere.
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