Oh no! The institutions are the reason for the drop! Blablabla. Different story same situation. Welcome to the Bear CT! Buy the dip, let it rip and watch it sink. (No don’t buy the dip….. yet)
@meehan05@ausstockchick Right on. Cgt discount was meant to be temporary(not that I agree with it in the first place). Every government wince has been too scared to touch it due to wanting to keep office. Double down, both need fixing.
- BTC bear market starts 2025 H2 ✅
- Realestate crashes 2026 H1 - yet to be confirmed, reference, US housing to top.
- CT starts realizing bear market 2026 H1(if we are lucky and not *buying the dip*) ✅
Nearly 2 years on from this. Point 1, is looking good, although there is the potential for btc to push into q1. Point 2, I beleive is on track.
Rethinking the btc low for H2 26, still primary idea but need to see when the top comes.
Tradfi, H2 2027 seems a bit far away now.
Nearly 2 years on and getting close to crunch time. Loving the “price projections” I see on X. Makes me want to puke 😂 just more reason the end is nearer than the heard expects. Few more sheep to gather before the slaughter.
I do think we can see further upside to new highs. But big picture, extreme caution is needed to not get caught in the hysteria which is to come. You do not want to be in the position of having to sell after the drop to repay debtors etc.
As the stars start to align and markets regain recent losses. We will see the world the world turn bullish collectively. There will be a short period where they are all winning. But being balls deep, leaves no more buyers to buy.
The tumble will be brutal, but spectacular.
The Crypto Cycle Explained.
Stage 1:
No one (or at least, the masses) don't believe the bear market is over.
"IT'S A BEAR MARKET RALLY"
Stage 2:
Most are bearish but they're less noisy.
Many still don't believe the bull market has began and they're waiting for new cycle highs or some other future event to happen, meanwhile missing easy gains.
"THE BULL MARKET WILL ONLY BEGIN WHEN (xyz...)"
Stage 3:
This is where we are at right now.
Everyone, or at least, the mass consensus is bullish.
The general sentiment is that it has only just begun and even "nothing can stop this".
"THE BULL MARKET HAS JUST BEGAN"
On the other side of the equation, we are now in what I have termed the "Late Retail" stage.
If this is you, that is OK. Everyone was late retail once.
But do know that the "Smart Money" and even some "Lucky Retail" are beginning of off load at least some of their bags to the late comers capturing significant gains.
Remember that nothing lasts forever.
Annica (ænikə) - Impermanent. True of life, and the market. All cycles come to and end.
That's also not to say the market can't go considerably higher.
But it is to say, that the bull market is beginning to run on borrowed time.
Lots of time can be borrowed, though. As in, there is no limits to irrational behaviour which could push prices higher than anyone thought imaginable.
But it also means that it is time to play good defence as the cycle could literally end at any moment.
The volatility and emotions in the market are next level and they're only going to get more extreme, at least that is typically how it is and we're already seeing signs of this.
It is more important than ever to remove the noise from your environment and remain balanced.
Make the most of it if you haven't already, have an exit plan in place for WHEN (not if) things turn south, and stay focussed.
Best of luck.
#Education
Integrating Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Cycle Methodology
Continuing from yesterday's post, the thesis is now uploaded on TradingView. I explain all concepts in extreme detail.
https://t.co/Ib45t6TIgL