morning brief:
apac wrapped green across the board overnight, a sharp reversal from thursday's tech-driven jitter. kospi led the recovery with samsung and sk hynix both up close to 9% as memory names bounced hard from thursday's DRAM and semi bloodbath. nikkei shook off an early 1,000-point drop to reclaim 69,000. the macro read is straightforward: the june nfp miss (57k vs 110k expected) did enough to push the first fully-priced fed hike out to december, which lifted the broad market even as the nasdaq bled on position-squaring heading into the independence day long weekend
the dollar is softer, gold is knocking on $4,200, and us10y is holding above 4.48%. that spread tells you the market is buying the disinflation read from the jobs miss but not fully committing to a rate cut narrative yet. yen is sitting near the prior session's trough following what looked like intervention on thursday; japanese officials keeping the usual rhetoric with nothing fresh from katayama or akazawa. gbp is on track for a seventh straight daily gain as the andy burnham political narrative builds; he flagged "room for movement on tax" which is being read as modestly positive for the uk growth picture
today is light. us cash is closed for july 4th so you can expect thin, drift-prone price action in futures. the real content comes from ecb's lagarde and boe's bailey speaking, plus global final services pmis for june. lagarde already backed the june hike overnight; bailey's tone on the back of gbp's extended run will be worth watching. iran-hormuz talks remain in the background, hormuz is open, active mou negotiations ongoing, with the strait status still the key geopolitical variable for crude and broader risk if anything flares
SNEAK PREVIEW of the yield curve models you can use for a backtest, which will be available on the FREE console released by MMH
Reshares, retweets and reccomending your friends to Market Macro Hub is super helpful and appreciated, I want as many people to know about this as possible!
A pretty decent downward revision of the previous month's employment growth takes the gloss off this result with employment growth effectively flat in the last two months
Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: US PCE, GDP, durable goods & jobless claims / AU labour market / EZ consumer confidence / BOJ, ECB & Fed speak
Read full: @GFXFTs https://t.co/upIITE9JvN
@sala81863 For quick macro snapshot I use https://t.co/S160Bak2J7 and for finding trades I use either EdgeFinder or my personal macro spreadsheet where I track everything.
I will soon be making a tutorial on how you can replicate the macro model setup that I use https://t.co/E9TDBm68m4