Marius Pretorius

Prof and researcher in turnaround & business rescue @ University of Pretoria

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

Please beware: I think @lightinthebox is a fake site. You order and pay. Then after several weeks they claim no stock and eventually refer to refund. Its approaching 60 days now. Private comms does not work. They only divert it to next website. No assistance.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

Cannot put it better. OPINION | We've seen many plans to save SAA, and this is the worst yet https://t.co/nBvjpmQyoT

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

Looking forward to be a panel member at #LeadUPAlumni – the University of Pretoria’s online Thought Leadership series. Join me on 10 June from 18:00 to 19:00 as we discuss the topic “Turnaround strategy and business rescue: help for struggling businesses.

https://t.co/qG0NSlj8A6

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@AbramLouw Think this is relevant #businessrescue #SAA

https://t.co/fipNXJY4pc

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@madamevecartoon The test for a restructuring plan is a willing PCF provider. Does not exist. Therefore the BrIL plan (wind down). #SAA #SAABusinessrescue #FlySAA #aviationnews #aviation #airlines #aviationindusry

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@madamevecartoon What changed since BRP appointment? Its normal for creditors and stakeholders to conflict with BRP. Happens 99% of the time.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@HeidiGiokos Customer trust gone - who will buy tickets? Now supplier trust gone requiring pay before delivery. Who will supply? Internal supply chains not #SAA speciality and rather dangerous.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@HeidiGiokos PCF is a function of the perceived reasonable prospect (which for #SAA does not exist) - not the other way round.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@metrobabe Hope and dreams cannot be a plan, especially for rescue. #SAA

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@BDliveSA #SAA now also do not have a profit model. Sufficient proof.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@BDliveSA How can you present a BR plan if you cannot conceive a reasonable prospect?

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

I think liquidation will follow soon. Bad. BRPs have little choice. #SAA there is no business no more. Who will invest in such a hole? Even new startup? Picture showns why.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@HeidiGiokos Is this not only postponing the inevitable? There can hardley be a plan created so the plan is liquidation. Within Covid-19 hardly any chance. Maybe we must recognise how the coming months will look and develop alternative strategies for MSMEs on return.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@ewnupdates @africartoons Over 95% of businesses suffered demand destruction aro lockdowns and customer income/salary losses. Question is how soon demand can be resurrected-if at all? Worst hit are airlines, restaurants, tourism, accomodation, services, non-essentials, transport related and oil/fuel.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@ewnupdates @africartoons Disruption brings about 1)‘demand destruction’, 2)‘Appropriation capacity legacy’ and 3)‘Strategic liabilities’ which are often 4)‘fatal caveats’ rarely to be overcome. Covid-19, however, accelerated the disruptor effects exponentially for distressed profits & liquidity.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@HeidiGiokos Rescue plans can only be created when there is an opportunity in the distressed venture. Long gone. BRPs are right to call for liquidation. Rule 3: hope and wishful thinking do not constitute reasonable prospect.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@HeidiGiokos Questioning/blaming BRPs was predicted at appointment. There is no reasonable prospect. Not even for new airline (especially given Covert). Flirting the idea of a potential investor is oldest trick in book.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

Extensive coverage of airline bankruptcies internationally. Worrying state of affairs predicted.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@ewnupdates Even Warren Buffet got out of airline investments as reported today. Prediction is 400-500 airline bankruptcies. Several airlines announced serious retrenchments. Most #SAA employees wil follow same as there is no business anymore. Sad.

[Marius Pretorius @brprof]

@HeidiGiokos A BR plan depends on reasonable prospect which depands on demand (at least projections). What projections could the BRPs offer for #SAA and #newSAA at this time of no aviation barring the cost of ongoing salaries? Will you book a ticket?