Complacency in Markets
The only reason why we're not all retired and browsing private island catalogues is because; the market has an uncanny way of lulling people into a state of complacency.
We're all susceptible to getting comfortable and familiar with a certain market environment, and begin considering that the norm.
The people who then fall victim to that way of thinking are forced to start from scratch and totally readjust the mindset whenever the environment shifts, as if they were unaware that 'normal' market behavior would continue.
'Normal' market behavior meaning:
- Up <=> Down, or Bull market <=> Bear market
- Consolidation <=> Trend
- Low volatility <=> High volatility
This is why I say, "the market should never have the ability to catch you off-guard", because it's really the same thing every time. Different, but the same.
Only the x-axis (time) and y-axis (price) will ever differ.
Yet somehow, the market's ability to stir emotions and invoke impulsive decisions is unmatched, which is ironic, considering whenever I give a bi-directional analysis a handful of people reply with; "so up OR down? Thanks genius."
But even those who are consciously aware of that fact, have the ability to be lulled into a complacency state by the market. Every human mind is within its' reach.
And as a result; this candlestick is the largest liquidation event in crypto history.
(called it btw. please never change.)
Probably due to a plethora of cognitive biases, and having the memory retention of a concussed-goldfish.
But you can thrive on the fact that the market does one thing, and then does the polar opposite of that thing, and use it to your advantage.
It just requires extreme discipline, and the ability to accept loss.
You see; the people who are able to adapt to a new regime, are the same people who respected the regime prior.
So the one's who will ride the breakout of a range, are the same people who adjusted to the fact that the market began ranging while the range was still in its' infancy.
It's impossible to watch as your trend-trading system gets obliterated 8 times in a row during a range, but have the same confidence and conviction in it the 9th time around when we are finally trending once again.
This is just one example, but allow it to be food for thought, and let's go back a step further using the same example.
The only way to have adapted to the range, was to have been respecting the trend prior to ranging.
Which means there's a time where your system works => the market begins doing the opposite => you start losing => you adapt to new regime => you're then able to adapt to the next one.
So everything is a balancing act of wins and losses, and getting comfortable with both.
Knowing your approach to the market works, assuming the x and y axis are sufficient enough for it to be rewarded, whilst knowing the inevitable losses that will follow are merely a scratch, and necessary in order to adjust to the next polar opposite regime.
Every trend traders takes losses when a range forms.
Every range trader takes a loss when the range breaks, and we form a new trend.
Your success is never dictated by something the market does.
You should be fully reliant on your ability to adapt, and as such; you should always allow yourself the comfortability of doing so, as that's what your success truly relies on.
<<insert Bruce Lee quote here>>
Most people will end this bull market with $0.
They'll make preventable mistakes that cost themselves life-changing wealth.
So here are 15 mistakes to AVOID in bull markets (and how to prevent them):