₿rooks

Husband, dad, Bitcoin maxie

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@AdamBLiv And that's why most people will have a hard financial life and retire without enough money.

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@FerreWeb3 No, because he's dead.

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@LukeMikic21 No, buying over 840,000 coins is.

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@BTCoptioneer $btc to $300k will mostikely happen first.

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@AdamBLiv Meanwhile... $strc 😥

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@APompliano @elonmusk $spslax

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@captaintytan So, we're gonna agree to talk about the war?

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@clintoptions That's still 14.5 hours away. Don't count your chickens yet.

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@MsVeilMoney

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@JonErlichman Uh... OK. Fairy Dust and chicken bones come up with these estimates?

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@APompliano "I hereby authorize"... 😂 because he owns the Trump Strait of Hormuz

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@CalebSol Mine, send me your money 😅

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

#stacksats and #buythedip

If you don't want them, I'll take them.

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@UnuFane I'm not chasing anything. My stack is stacking and has been for years.

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@katyXBT Buy more! #buythedip

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

Ahh, the Sunday afternoon dump... There you are my old friend.

#hodl #btfd #buythedip

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

For everyone hyped about the SpaceX IPO, I believe LONG term, it'll be a great stock to own, but research is very clear regarding the first 12 to 24 months of a hyped IPO stock.

1. The Day-One "Pop" (Underpricing)

Investment banks intentionally underprice hot IPOs to guarantee that their institutional clients make a quick profit when trading begins (Lowry et al., 2010). Regular investors cannot buy at the IPO offer price. They have to buy at the Opening Market Price, which includes the massive first-day "pop."

Look at how much higher regular investors had to pay on day one compared to the official IPO price:

Airbnb: IPO price was $68, but it opened to the public at $146 (+112%)

Snowflake: IPO price was $120, but it opened to the public at $245 (+104%)

Beyond Meat: IPO price was $25, but it opened to the public at $46 (+84%)

If you bought Airbnb at $146 on day one, your actual 12-month return wasn't +164%—it was closer to +23%. If you bought Snowflake at $245, your 12-month return was essentially flat, despite the official statistics showing it doubled.

2. The Long-Term Underperformance Reality

Academic research on IPO history reveals a phenomenon known as the "long-run underperformance hypothesis" (Babu & Dsouza, 2021).

Extensive historical data compiled by IPO scholars like Jay Ritter shows that over a 3-to-5-year horizon, the average IPO actually underperforms the broader market benchmark by a significant margin (Ritter, 2025). This is especially true for companies that go public during "hot issue" markets when retail hype is at its absolute peak (Babu & Dsouza, 2021).

When a sector is hyper-hyped, short-term retail attention can push valuations to unsustainable heights, but that sentiment inevitably reverses over the following 12 months as early excitement normalizes (Kassner, 2026).

The Real Takeaway for Investors?

The institutional data shows that while a handful of secular, highly scalable infrastructure winners (like Google or Arm) manage to outrun their initial hype, the vast majority of consumer-facing or narrative-driven tech stocks leave retail buyers holding the bag if they buy on day one.

Unless you are an institutional insider getting allocations at the pre-market offer price, the data suggests the most profitable move is patience: waiting 6 to 12 months for the initial lock-up periods to expire and the hype to cool almost always provides a much safer, cheaper entry point.

#IPO #spacex

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

For everyone hyped about the SpaceX IPO, I believe LONG term, it'll be a great stock to own, but research is very clear regarding the first 12 to 24 months of a hyped IPO stock.

1. The Day-One "Pop" (Underpricing)

Investment banks intentionally underprice hot IPOs to guarantee that their institutional clients make a quick profit when trading begins (Lowry et al., 2010). Regular investors cannot buy at the IPO offer price. They have to buy at the Opening Market Price, which includes the massive first-day "pop."

Look at how much higher regular investors had to pay on day one compared to the official IPO price:

Airbnb: IPO price was $68, but it opened to the public at $146 (+112%)

Snowflake: IPO price was $120, but it opened to the public at $245 (+104%)

Beyond Meat: IPO price was $25, but it opened to the public at $46 (+84%)

If you bought Airbnb at $146 on day one, your actual 12-month return wasn't +164%—it was closer to +23%. If you bought Snowflake at $245, your 12-month return was essentially flat, despite the official statistics showing it doubled.

2. The Long-Term Underperformance Reality

Academic research on IPO history reveals a phenomenon known as the "long-run underperformance hypothesis" (Babu & Dsouza, 2021).

Extensive historical data compiled by IPO scholars like Jay Ritter shows that over a 3-to-5-year horizon, the average IPO actually underperforms the broader market benchmark by a significant margin (Ritter, 2025). This is especially true for companies that go public during "hot issue" markets when retail hype is at its absolute peak (Babu & Dsouza, 2021).

When a sector is hyper-hyped, short-term retail attention can push valuations to unsustainable heights, but that sentiment inevitably reverses over the following 12 months as early excitement normalizes (Kassner, 2026).

The Real Takeaway for Investors?

The institutional data shows that while a handful of secular, highly scalable infrastructure winners (like Google or Arm) manage to outrun their initial hype, the vast majority of consumer-facing or narrative-driven tech stocks leave retail buyers holding the bag if they buy on day one.

Unless you are an institutional insider getting allocations at the pre-market offer price, the data suggests the most profitable move is patience: waiting 6 to 12 months for the initial lock-up periods to expire and the hype to cool almost always provides a much safer, cheaper entry point.

#IPO #spacex

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

@marc02200 $btc for the win

[₿rooks @BrooksR74]

The chart doesn't lie, and the math behind the network is executing exactly as programmed. If you are staring at the short-term noise right now, you are missing the biggest macro signal in the entire space.

The Bitcoin 12-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) has only printed 4 major red clusters since 2010. That is just 4 times in 16 years. Every single time this signal appeared, it marked a generational buying opportunity. And right now, in 2026, the 5th cluster is actively forming.

The Historical Returns

When Bitcoin gets this deeply oversold on the macro charts, the history of the network shows an undeniable pattern of spring-loaded upside:

12 Months Later: An average gain of +139%, as short-term speculators exit and long-term buyers lock in supply.

24 Months Later: An average gain of +619%, driven by the macro expansion of global liquidity.

36 Months Later: An average gain of +2,859%, showing the true compounding power of the halving cycle combined with network adoption.

Why the Structural Models Are Holding Up

The underlying mechanics of Bitcoin remain completely unbroken, and the long-term data trends are tracking perfectly on schedule:

The Halving Cycle is Working: The protocol enforces a strict supply cut every four years. The post-halving consolidation phase we are living through right now in 2026 is a standard historical feature, building the ultimate macro floor before the next leg up.

The Power Law Corridor Rules All: Bitcoin continues to navigate cleanly within its long-term power law fair value channels. This proves that user adoption is growing on a highly predictable mathematical trajectory, completely ignoring the daily panic of retail traders.

Fiat Debasement is Guaranteed: Central banks must continuously expand global liquidity at a structural baseline of roughly 8% per year just to sustain the legacy debt architecture. When a melting currency collides with a fixed supply of 21 million coins, a massive upward repricing is an arithmetic certainty.

The chart has spoken only 4 times before in over a decade, and it was right every single time. This 5th cluster is simply the code running on schedule.

#Bitcoin #MacroEconomics #PowerLaw #HalvingCycle #DigitalGold #Crypto #Sovereignty