₿itcoin Commonwealth

🗺️ A world with ₿itcoin || BIP-110

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

BITCOIN 101: UNDERSTANDING BITCOIN

#Bitcoin is an open-source protocol that enables peer-to-peer transactions without the need for intermediaries. The network is secured through cryptography and operates on a public ledger known as the blockchain.

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

@APompliano Supply and demand…

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

REKT’d

[Phong Le @phongle]

@stoolpresidente HODL + time > timing

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

@SimplyBitcoin This is the best marketing for Bitcoin y’all can do?

[Central ₿ank Robber @CBRobber]

Bitcoin's price has been sinking since it was Corepedoed last October. 😐

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

@d_1awrence It can’t hold par. It’s junk.

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

It’s ok. It’s digital capital for an operating business with no income.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: MicroStrategy's, $MSTR, unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings rises to a record -$12.7 billion.

This puts the company's position down -$28 billion over the last 12 months.

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

@Excellion @BTCTimescom @Strive @_ALCPB Forever

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

BIP 110 looms large.

[rm @sprainhill]

Some general thoughts on the market:

My very broad strokes big picture view is that BTC remains out of favor through end of year. I don’t have a strong view on downside or upside from here. Caveat that it’s a broad brush for how I’m thinking about the world updated daily and held loosely

But there’s a version of things that goes like: AI / semis / memory + IPOs continues to suck all of the narrative and capital out of the room through fall / winter. Sticky inflation from the entrenched war in Iran negates any hopium for a loosening of financial conditions.

Fall / winter the IPOs get out. With the low float IPOs I saw analysis that looked at the increase in float over 6-12 months. First 6 months you’re usually okay and then the downward pressure increases from there as more float comes to market.

Takes us into Q1 with demand destruction from sticky inflation hitting alongside downward pressure from equity supply. Then you can get some hope from loosening financial conditions / fed messaging etc

AI trades start to cool off at the same time as you hit the development pocket. 18 months before you start to see durable cash flows from the investment cycle.

Sets up the next liquidity driven bull in BTC nicely into the typical timing of the cycle low and also aligns with when you could see room to retake some narrative capital

Overall you can’t get a sustained rally in BTC until financial conditions loosen (or begin to be priced in) or we have a new demand story. Could be Clarity, maybe. Could be an unknown unknown. It will happen at some point but not hanging my hat on it from a timing perspective. Tracking financial conditions and liquidity is a better way to stay tactical.

Again just a thought experiment. My big caveat is we live in a world of hypercycles so timing is most likely to get pulled forward not pushed back on any of this

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

@AnselLindner @SuperBitcoinBro Completely different market dynamics

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

@frankcorva I’m patiently waiting for my $58k buy order to execute.

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

VC Bitcoiners are the worst.

[Eric Yakes @ericyakes]

Where the $58k gang at

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

@ericyakes 🙋🏾‍♂️ ….

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

We have completely lost the plot.

Bitcoin is a hedge against war and capital controls.

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

What if long BTC is the best hedge for SpaceX IPO debacle?

You must think two steps ahead in the era of hyperfinancialization

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

@dgt10011 @BitWhitman Bitcoin is a hedge for war.

All this financialization stuff is for the birds.

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

If Saylor starts dumping weekly, he will be the most man in Bitcoin since Bitcoin Jesus.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Strive CEO @ColeMacro explains why Michael Saylor sold 32 bitcoin.

"he had to message 'I am willing to do this' and that willingness to do that was always going to come with the critics saying 'oh this is a tip of the iceberg. First its 32, next its going to be 3,200.'"

"your goal should be maximizing total returns. bitcoin's your hurdle rate, but ultimately the goal is you want to maximize the total returns for your common equity shareholders."

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

Money supply is expanding, Bitcoin and gold are dumping… just like the podcasters said it would.

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Gold losing the 200ma👀

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

BIP110

[Barchart @Barchart]

Bitcoin $BTC has fallen to its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023 📉 Historically, this has been a great buying opportunity 👀

[₿itcoin Commonwealth @BTC_Prep]

While they said Bitcoin bitcoin:native is going to $250,000, I said $58k was more likely to happen first. 🤷‍♂️