CRFB.org

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is a nonpartisan group of budget experts concerned about this nation's fiscal future.

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

☑️Objective. ☑️Nonpartisan. ☑️Committed to Fiscal Responsibility.

Follow the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget for our latest analysis of what's shaping the fiscal conversation in Washington.

🔗https://t.co/D9WlSD67hr | 📲@BudgetHawks

[Straight Arrow @StraightArrow__]

Millions of Americans could lose roughly $500 a month from their Social Security checks within the next seven years, and a new analysis finds no state would escape the impact if Congress leaves the program on its current course.

Full story: https://t.co/CODs9LQxTU

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

🚨Unless changes are made, Social Security's insolvency would trigger automatic benefit cuts - $500 on average nationally, and even more in 29 states. One-in-five Americans, 63 million, would be impacted if those cuts happened today.

Solutions are long overdue; a bipartisan commission would be an important step toward preventing this outcome.

Learn more: https://t.co/ia2rY2HOrj. #NoStateSpared

[MarketWatch @MarketWatch]

Social Security is looking at a $500-a-month cut. Could a new bipartisan commission make a difference? https://t.co/cZdURz9x4Y

[NEWSMAX @NEWSMAX]

A new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) warns that Social Security's retirement trust fund is projected to become insolvent in 2032, triggering an automatic 24% across-the-board benefit cut for retirees, spouses, survivors, and dependents unless lawmakers act. https://t.co/HhVRG8g3vH

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

🗺️What state would have the highest total benefits lost as a share of GDP upon Social Security’s insolvency?

At the national level, a 24% reduction in Social Security benefits today would amount to $345 billion this year, or 1.1% of GDP – with the state impact ranging from 0.2% to 1.9% of GDP.

In 40 states, the cuts would exceed 1% of GDP. The states with the steepest losses include:

1️⃣ West Virginia

2️⃣ Mississippi

3️⃣ Vermont

4️⃣ South Carolina

5️⃣ Maine

6️⃣ Michigan

7️⃣ Montana

8️⃣ Arkansas

9️⃣ Alabama

🔟 Idaho

Click here to see where your home state compares 👉 https://t.co/ia2rY2HgBL.

[Washington Journal @cspanwj]

.@MimiGeerges: "How much is fraud costing the social security trust fund?"

@MarcGoldwein: "Within social security, particularly in a retirement program, the fraud rate is extremely low. ... We're talking about an error rate in the retirement program of less than 1% - maybe close to 0.5%."

[Washington Journal @cspanwj]

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (@BudgetHawks) Senior Vice President & Senior Policy Director @MarcGoldwein discusses a new report on the projected impact on Social Security recipients if the trust fund becomes insolvent.

LIVE now: https://t.co/HqyimGEp9n

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

⏳The Social Security Trustees project that the retirement trust fund will be exhausted in 2032 – if no action is taken, no state would be spared from the impact of insolvency. Thankfully, there are plenty of #TrustFundSolutions to save the program.

Tune in to @cspanwj at 9:30am ET to hear from CRFB's @MarcGoldwein on our latest findings.

➡️Read the interactive report at https://t.co/ia2rY2HgBL.

[Washington Journal @cspanwj]

THURS | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (@BudgetHawks) Senior Vice President & Senior Policy Director @MarcGoldwein discusses a new report on the projected impact on Social Security recipients if the trust fund becomes insolvent.

Watch LIVE at 9:30am ET!

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

🔗https://t.co/Xv1vHNOSol.

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

🚨 NEW: Reconciliation Should Be for Deficit Reduction

The Senate may soon vote on a reconciliation bill that would appropriate $70 billion for various immigration and Homeland Security agencies in place of ordinary appropriations. Although funding is intended to cover 3.5 years’ worth of funding, the bill appropriates all the funds in Fiscal Year 2026 and includes no guardrails to prevent funding from being spent more quickly than intended. Lawmakers have also not put in place any mechanism to prevent additional regular appropriations on top of this mandatory funding.

The following is a statement from CRFB President @MayaMacGuineas ⤵️

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

🗺️What share of the population would be impacted by Social Security insolvency?

One-in-five Americans would be impacted if Social Security’s retirement program faced a 24% cut today – with between 10% and 23% of each state’s population affected by the cut.

The states with the largest share of the population facing benefit cuts include:️

➡️ Maine

➡️ West Virginia

➡️ Vermont

➡️ Delaware

➡️ Montana

➡️ New Hampshire

➡️ South Carolina

➡️ Wisconsin

➡️ Michigan

➡️ Pennsylvania

Click here for more information on the state-by-state breakdown 🔗https://t.co/ia2rY2HgBL.

[Breaking Battlegrounds @Breaking_Battle]

Could Social Security insolvency hit every state in America?

A new “No State Spared” report from @BudgetHawks maps out what could happen if Congress fails to act before Social Security’s trust fund depletion, which they say is less than 7 years away.

According to the report, retirees could face a projected 24% benefit cut. That would mean average monthly cuts of more than $500 in 29 states, more than 15% of the population directly impacted in 47 states, and total benefit cuts topping 1% of GDP in 40 states.

No state would avoid the impact.

Check out the full report to see what this could mean for your state:
https://t.co/WG2YeIJWL5

Source: @BudgetHawks

#SocialSecurity #Budget

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

🗺️ What states are facing the largest average monthly benefit cut for retirees upon Social Security insolvency?

After applying the projected 24% benefit cut to current state data, we estimate an across-the-board monthly cut would range from $459 to $556 across the 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the benefit cut exceeding $500 per month in 29 states.

The top ten states facing the largest monthly reductions for retirees include:

1️⃣ Connecticut

2️⃣ New Jersey

3️⃣ New Hampshire

4️⃣ Delaware

5️⃣ Maryland

6️⃣ Washington

7️⃣ Minnesota

8️⃣ Massachusetts

9️⃣ Michigan

🔟 Utah

Find how your state compares to others here ⚖️  https://t.co/ia2rY2HgBL.

[Michael Dennehy @DennehyGOP]

Social security — it’s going insolvent. I had Mike Murphy of @BudgetHawks on @thepulseofnh to talk about what it will mean for NH with their new report out. Washington needs to take action…now.

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

No State Spared 🗺️ Mapping the Impact of Social Security's Insolvency

Our new first-of-its-kind “No State Spared” report illustrates the potential state-by-state impact of Social Security's insolvency, highlighting the consequences of continued inaction.

Social Security insolvency is less than 7 years away, at which point retirees will face a 24% benefit cut upon trust fund depletion...

Using the projected 24% benefit cut and the most recent state-level data available, we estimate that ⤵️

➡️ Average monthly benefit cuts would surpass $500 in 29 states.

➡️ More than 15% of the population would be directly impacted in 47 states.

➡️ Total benefit cuts would exceed 1% of GDP in 40 states.

No state would be spared from the potentially devastating effects of Social Security insolvency.

For information on the impact on your home state, check out the report here 👉 https://t.co/bBqZTPWMBL.

[Marc Goldwein @MarcGoldwein]

We're on course for 4.3% inflation this year.

Graph via @katekgen at @BudgetHawks

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

🩺 NEW: The Next Doc Fix is Coming

Congress has kicked off this year’s “Doc Fix”: an increasingly annual process to increase physicians’ payments for services under the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (PFS).

Last week, @WaysandMeansGOP passed the Provider Reimbursement Stability Act of 2026 to boost physician pay. Meanwhile, members of the Republican Doctors Caucus and Democratic Doctors Caucus together have floated a bill. Both would significantly increase spending.

Unfortunately, it has become all too common for Congress to enact physician pay increases – without reforms or offsets – raising Medicare spending through an inefficient payment system.

We previously put forward a menu of reform options that would improve the overall function of the PFS and help offset some of the proposed increases. These policies would ⤵️

1️⃣ Eliminate “incident to” billing for Advanced Practice Providers (APPs), such as Nurse Practitioners. Current law allows APPs to bill “incident to” a service at rates that a doctor would receive. However, when they bill independently, they receive 85% of that reimbursement.

2️⃣ Expand CMS’s work on misvalued codes. CMS estimates it takes approximately 17 years between each review of one code. Speeding up this process would reduce spending on overvalued codes.

3️⃣ Adopt an efficiency adjustor. This would more accurately reflect the time and effort it takes to complete new procedures after they are introduced. CMS has, encouragingly, adopted this proposal with a reduction of 2.5% in order to increase spending in other parts of the PFS; due to budget neutrality, it does not result in federal savings.

For more information on the next doc fix and options for PFS reform, click here🔗 https://t.co/298C4ZH4ni.

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

🚨 NEW: Defense Funding Put in Context

President Trump has requested $1.5 trillion of defense spending in his FY 2027 budget request, including $1.15 trillion of base funding and $350 billion of additional mandatory funding.

If enacted, this would represent a 42% increase from this year’s total levels – including mandatory funding from the OBBBA – and a 67% increase from last year’s base funding levels.

For more context on defense funding, read our new blog here ➡️  https://t.co/dqnWQIldrI.

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

➡️ICYMI: 6x @NBA champion, 6x MVP, and accomplished writer Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (@kaj33) recently weighed in on how lawmakers are leaving us ill-prepared to deal with a future crisis by ignoring our growing debt.

"This collective, forced silence is actually far more dangerous than the debt number itself. A country that refuses to accurately assess its own financial health cannot fix it."

The Hall of Fame is warning about our fiscal health – it's time for the halls of Congress to follow suit.

🔗https://t.co/nmPmSHRgKb.

[CRFB.org @BudgetHawks]

NEW 🚨 Beyond the Gridlock: Bipartisan Fiscal Solutions

The national debt is on track to exceed record levels in just a few years 📈 It took many bipartisan actions to get us into this fiscal situation, and it will take bipartisan efforts to get us out of it.

Several bipartisan proposals could help improve the nation’s fiscal outlook: ⤵️

✍️ Fiscal Commission Act: This bill would create a 16-member commission to identify policies to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio by 2039 and improve the solvency of federal trust funds.

✍️ Sustainable Budget Act: This bill would create an 18-member commission to develop recommendations to balance the budget over 10 years and achieve long-term sustainability.

✍️ 3% Resolution: This resolution calls on Congress to reduce the federal budget deficit to 3% of GDP.

✍️ Fiscal Contingency Preparedness Act: This bill would mandate that the Secretary of the Treasury and the Director of the OMB complete an annual assessment of the government’s fiscal strength if faced with various emergencies.

Dive deeper into these bipartisan proposals here ➡️ https://t.co/q8KhN0HYAg.