@Bulk_Harvest

#shipping #Drybulk #capesize #freight #trading. Asian/ME/Eur based specialist.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

2 basins pulling apart, and cape exodus West drains the Pacific just as WA finds a base.
RTS queueto multi-month lows, FFA holding while spot rebuilds. Pacific has put in its low and grinds up from here, Hedland queue build the one cap. C3 stays on the back foot.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Brent at 3 month lows, Hormuz reopening, 100+ tankers set to release a wall of crude. VLSFO firming while HSFO craters pushed the scrubber spread back to pre-war lvls. Falling bunkers held C3 TCE flat even as freight leaked. Scrubber tonnage continues to benefit long haul.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

The cleanest tell is the ballasting ships. Capes past Singapore West near doubled in 2 weeks, and the mix no longer dedicated VLOC, now spot tonnage.
Each one of those is a cape leaving the Pac rather than fighting for WA cargo. Good pac, bad C3

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

W.Oz hit bottom and bounced. PH/Qingdao firming through the day and a late BHP number well clear of where it opened.
Owners stopped taking the first offer and started holding. More today

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Jun FFA softened to 34,900 (-50). Back end lifted across Jul through Q4.
So, spot-led selling. The curve isn't repricing the forward, it's clearing prompt Pac pain.
Atl premium still intact. Scrub gap at $13.6.
Early July the better entry. Mid-July the test.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

C5 sixth session down. 10.71.
WAUS majors fixing below the Baltic print - RTS 10.55/70, BHP 10.50/55.
Bearish on the surface. But consolidating.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Last week: 13-15 fewer Capes ballasting West, 8-10 more VLOCs.
This week: Capes +10 then +17 WoW. VLOCs -4 then -7.
Last week VLOC tonnage was heading West. Now it's spot Capes joining the queue.
Supply build tips C3 heavy into mid-July. Watch sub-$30 as a real possibility.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Pac C5 is at or near floor, losses shrinking, bunkers bid. Expect index UP tonight. Atl C3 holds mid-30s, but plenty of 1H Jul ballasters continue to build pressure. C3 under threat.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Macro / bunker floor. Yesterday declining bunkers helped gut C5 toward the 11s. Today with US hitting Iran for a second day, Brent claws back to mid 96s, and the same bunker floor is now holding C5 off the lows. The risk I flagged as the cap became the support.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Divergence. C3 still out earning C5 by $12k+ on a scrubber ship. That arb should drag tonnage West. Last two weeks of ballaster data say it is not with only 9 Capes past Singapore westbound vs 23 last week.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

What the index won't tell you: Seventh red C5 print looks like weakness. It isn't. Fixtures are holding the low 12s, the daily loss has collapsed to noise, and the bunker floor is firming under it. Index says down, the structure says floor.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Headline read: C5 settles 12.015, down 0.165, seventh red day, but the bleed's nearly stopped. Daily losses have shrunk to a fraction of midweek. WA fixtures holding low 12s. Mkt looking for a floor in Pac now.

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Pac: C5 stays a sell in the low 12s, wouldn't surprise me to trade into the 11s today. But decent cargo supply in the Pacific means a floor may firm once the early cargoes fix.
Atl: C3 holds the mid-30s with the arb this wide and Brazil flow firm. #capesize #drybulk

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Brent leg dwon to mid 94s, bunkers followed: Sing VLSFO 738 (-43). Market pricing ceasefire optimism. Overnight US–Iran trading direct fire in Hormuz, Israel hit Tyre after a deal was "days away." Expect bunker volatility #capesize #drybulk

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

C3 out earning C5 by 11,500+ on a scrubber ships, gap up on bunkers falling, not C3 rising. By the book that should be dragging Cape tonnage West. Spread widened on a ceasefire the overnight renwed strikes just undercut. Bunkers bid back, arb compresses. #drybulk #capesize

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

RTS queue ticked up to 9, but Walcott and Dampier both light and Cape Lambert loaders down to the 17th. So lost load capacity, not tonnage backing up. Hedland holds at 33 in Q. #capesize #drybulk

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

Jun paper cracked to 36,500, off 500 on the day. But the back end lifted while the front fell: Sep +325, Q4 +450, Cal27 +150. Market's marking down prompt spot and repricing the forward higher. Conviction on the back, capitulation at the front. #capesize #drybulk

[@Bulk_Harvest @Bulk_Harvest]

C5 settled 12.18, down ~0.95, sixth red day running. WA Miner fixtures landing 12.15–12.25 for 26–28 Jun. Pacific still grinding, no floor yet.