Brendon Simmons

Severe weather fanatic, forecaster and storm chaser. Christian father and husband - curious like a cat about life - experiencer of unexplained things and more.

[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

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[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

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[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

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[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

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[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

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[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

Well...that sounding I analysed was too good to be true.

[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

⚠️ Warning to residents of southern NSW and particularly northern central VIC.

Just hope this model data (this one of many) does not come to fruition for the residents.

I'm sure my fellow storm chasers will be piqued at this sounding. Also 700mb temps are good for it, but I haven't thoroughly looked at much data.

It could be a conditional setup quite frankly, given the run last night had a more NW at 850, creating >3°C Cap...but a more northerly will fix that, but also im concerned for surface temps.

They are high based now...but if the can get into that area I mentioned, LCL looks good.

Just a disclaimer, this is not an official forecast but solely my opinion based on a small fraction of the model data that I saw.

If every element lined up correctly, which is not likely, there is a slight chance of an isolated tornado today. Regardless of the minimal CAPE, windshear is great.

I was fortunate enough to be within 100m of a tornado several weeks back in a QLCS. We only had about 300 CAPE j/kg.

[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

@michaelwx6 I say the meso because its kinda like the chicken and the egg saying.

[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

In early spring, I came as close as 50m or 164ft. I almost got hit by debris but fortunately the tornado was small and about 20m wide at most.

Developed in a nasty QLCS and I will never ever forget that sound. I've been chasing for over 20 years and all I had to do was get out of bed, grab my coffee and go outside to see.

I knew the storm system was going to be windy with 50kt LLJ - velocity doppler images got me excited. I knew we would get a goodie with the rear inflow jet.

There was actually 2 tornadoes. One 10km south.

[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

⚠️ Warning to residents of southern NSW and particularly northern central VIC.

Just hope this model data (this one of many) does not come to fruition for the residents.

I'm sure my fellow storm chasers will be piqued at this sounding. Also 700mb temps are good for it, but I haven't thoroughly looked at much data.

It could be a conditional setup quite frankly, given the run last night had a more NW at 850, creating >3°C Cap...but a more northerly will fix that, but also im concerned for surface temps.

They are high based now...but if the can get into that area I mentioned, LCL looks good.

Just a disclaimer, this is not an official forecast but solely my opinion based on a small fraction of the model data that I saw.

If every element lined up correctly, which is not likely, there is a slight chance of an isolated tornado today. Regardless of the minimal CAPE, windshear is great.

I was fortunate enough to be within 100m of a tornado several weeks back in a QLCS. We only had about 300 CAPE j/kg.

[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

As a storm chaser myself for over 20 years, this AI crap and the types that alter their images with the intention of misleading people - I cannot condemn that behaviour enough.

There are some out there that also exaggerate hail size, wind estimates and lightning intensity.

If I see anything AI generated - Always down vote or report as misleading if context is important and then ratio their account.

[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

Please check official forecasts and warnings @BOM_au

I am a storm chaser, not a professional meteorologist.

[Brendon Simmons @BuzzyBiggles]

@JVP_wx Absolutely amazing