CA Atishay Jain | MIV

Investor thinking aloud | In love with nature

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

Oil down to USD 86

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

I was also very close to my grandmother. During Covid, she spent 4 weeks in hospital with no support from any family member as it was second wave of Covid.

I remember how we made her walk after 4 weeks of physiotherapy and more than physical, that was an emotional journey

We spent good quality time with her during that journey and I personally made sure to be present in all her physiotherapy sessions. She felt very relaxed whenever I was around her and she always prefer to hold my hand than doctor’s during the session.

Your post made me remember her!

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

Why US markets fell?

A short analysis

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

Most Indian investors are 100% in Indian markets

Here's why that's a mistake and what the data says:
🇮🇳 India = ~3% of global market cap
🇺🇸 US markets = ~44% of global market cap

INR has depreciated ~4-5% annually vs USD over the last decade. That means even a "flat" US investment beats an Indian FD in real terms.

The S&P 500 has delivered ~13% CAGR over 10 years
Nifty 50? ~12% but in a depreciating currency

When you adjust for currency, the US portfolio wins by 4-5% per year

Global diversification isn't unpatriotic. It's math and common sense at the same time

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

This is not a investment recommendation, but an advice for end-users who are waiting for crash

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

Everyone's waiting for the real estate crash

It's not coming, atleast not the way you think. World is growing through biggest turmoil - RBI will cut Interest rates eventually to boost growth and construction cost is expected to remain super high

Liquidity and prices will not move together. Transactions will dry up - Fewer buyers and fewer deals

But prices? They'll stay high. Brutally high.

What's actually happening is the biggest wealth transfer of our generation. Those who already own will keep owning. Everyone else will keep renting and waiting for a dip that never arrives.

For most Indians, a home isn't getting more affordable. It's slipping further out of reach

[Balu Gorade @BaluGorade]

You underperform because you keep chasing what's already gone up the most.

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

Many investors think small caps will repeat 2021-2024. Markets don't work that way

Nifty Smallcap 250 = 65x P/E to 30x
Avg IPO Day 1 pop (2024) = 38%, (2026) = 4%

Liquidity drove valuations. Liquidity is gone now

Earnings haven't caught up. The next 3 years won't look like the last 3

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

IT as a sector has already got devalued, it is better to sit sideways and observe the next 2 years closely and then take the call

[Balu Gorade @BaluGorade]

Top fund managers have very different takes on Indian IT.

Rajeev Thakkar is finding value at current levels and is buying IT across funds.

Prashant Jain is neutral. His view the sector may need 2 more years for better clarity.

Kenneth Andrade has completely exited IT, citing uncertainty around the real impact of AI on the sector.

S. Naren, the contrarian, is also seeing value and continues to hold IT stocks.

Samir Arora is bearish on traditional IT, with zero allocation there, but prefers select tech and capital market plays.

Sunil Singhania has no exposure to traditional IT stocks, but is buying a product-based tech company.

It will be interesting to see who gets this right.

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

My secret funda for watching any podcast is that it should not praise the government

If it doesn’t, I watch otherwise I skip

The government is already praising itself too much, I can’t hear the same in a podcast

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

@Akshat_World I have made more money shorting Zomato and Swiggy than holding them

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

@withpronto The case study on how to worsen your situation 😀

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

These companies are selling data to robotics company, and then buy robotics technology from the same company

[Harsh Upadhyay @upadhyay_harsh1]

Important: How Pronto is turning Indian homes into training grounds for its investors’ Physical AI vision

Did you know? Pronto professionals use small outward-facing cameras during select opt-in jobs, and customers receive the footage afterward.

=> In an internal memo, Glade Brook also said Pronto aims to formalise informal labour markets while generating data useful for Physical AI and robotics training. (🧵)

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

@PropertyDecoder Is this Openhouse?

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

Internet first companies valued at billions of dollars generating 20cr of profit

While SME company, valued at 200 crore generating similar profits

Seems like people want to pick glamorous companies and stay away from boring companies

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

Six things happened in 90 days

1. A war started in the Middle East
2. Crude spiked
3. US, Korean, Chinese markets made fresh highs
4. Gold and silver (the textbook "war hedges") didn't rally
5. Indian markets corrected
6. The rupee touched record lows

The countries that started the conflict kept compounding. The countries that had nothing to do with it absorbed the cost

That is true globalisation

Every Indian is exposed to one currency, depreciating 3-4% every year, one central bank and at the receiving end of every decision made in Washington, Tel Aviv, Beijing, or Riyadh

One question worth sitting with ➡️When the next decision is made in a room you're not in, do you want to be on the receiving end of it or also own a small piece of the side making it?

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

AI companies are building “Human AI” humanoid robots that will take over everyday human work

Gardening, driving, mopping, dusting, cooking - basically all forms of physical labor

The robot workforce is coming

[CA Atishay Jain | MIV @Caatishay]

Agree and most retail money gets parked in small-cap and mid-cap without thinking about long term impact

[Balu Gorade @BaluGorade]

Today, we have nearly 50 mutual fund houses.

5 broad categories. So many sub categories.

2,500+ schemes. On top of that, global funds too.

Picking mutual funds is no longer easy.