Devansh Singla

Chartered Accountant (AIR 47, May 2026) | IIM-K (MDP) | Business Valuations | Investment Research | Writing on money & markets for 5,000+ readers

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

7/ So the right question is not only:

“How fast is India growing?”

It is:

“Who is actually feeling that growth?”

Have you seen this in your local market too?

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

6/ This may be a K-shaped story.

Premium consumption, formal companies, infrastructure and digital businesses can grow fast.

At the same time, informal workers and small retailers can feel pressure.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

@Akshat_World "Learn to talk without agenda"?
Why and how?

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

Decoding Blinkit's 60% CAGR

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

@arnesh_11 Would like to join

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

A dark store in a Tier-3 or 4 city where the population is below 50000, and families around 10-12.5k, doing daily sales of INR 8-10 Lakhs with more than 1500 daily orders of >INR 500 on average. Hmmmm....

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

To reach CAGR of 60%, they still have to grow their daily sales per dark store by ~25%, which is already hovering around 8 Lakhs.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

I could see many stores opening in Tier-3 cities and towns, how would they contribute to the average will be exciting to look forward, if the company shares geographical breakdown of their sales.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

So if they are targeting a 60% CAGR over the next 3 years.
Firstly, they are increasing their geographical footprint by expanding dark stores, ~750 to be added in FY27. So if assume simlar dark stores expansion in coming years, 25% growth can be driven by geographical expansion.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

From the KPIs, Blinkit:
has 2400+ Dark stores in 250+ cities.
That comes out to be roughly daily sales per dark store of more than INR 8 Lakhs, and approx 1500 orders per day.
On average a user places 41 orders per year with an average order value of INR 518.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

If we keep these numbers on a pie chart, currently Blinkit holds 50% market share, and by FY2030 it will likely be 43-60%.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

The management of Eternal expects a 60% growth rate (CAGR) in Blinkit's Net order value (NOV) over the next 3 years, so I tried to break it down into pieces.

Used numbers from company filings and Industry research in Zepto's UDRHP.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

From the macro point of view, Quick commerce market size is estimated to reach INR 5-7 Lakh Crs.
If we take 60% CAGR for next 3-4 years, NOV of blinkit is likely to be INR ~3 Lakh Crores by FY2030.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

Presently, the market size of quick commerce is INR ~1 Lakh Cr., out of which INR 50k Cr. is held by Blinkit.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

For Hugging Face founders - this may have been the best time to exit rather than giving up market share to a big shark. Better a good exit now rather than a great exit that never comes.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

Nvidia already dominating the GPU space, wants to enter into the repository layer, similarly how Microsoft has GitHub - playground for web developers.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

What if the founders saw what's coming and the bid by Nvidia was just to get an established player in its suite rather than building scratch up.

As the competition in the AI space is heating up, the big players are trying to capture different layers of the value chain.

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

Most people are just labelling it hypocrisy and the increased offer (by $5.9Bn) as a "price" for their stance on AI.

Or is there something more, behind the scenes?

[Devansh Singla @CAdevanshsingla]

"While declining to comment on Nvidia’s offer, the company said it does not want a single dominant investor that could sway decisions."

Co-founder of Hugging face publically states that concentration of Power is the biggest threat to AI.