cade

a very online person with a penchant for posting

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

Angus Reid is one of at least two polls currently in the field right now.

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

We should get one in the next week or two.

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

gonna have to whip this one out on TV when I eat shit in a few months cos Mark Marissen managed to make fetch happen

[Mark Marissen @marissenmark]

@by__brittany I don’t speak for the BC Liberal Party ….

Yet. 😀

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

I'm only half joking when I say that bringing back Christy Clark may not be a bad idea here.

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

are you ready for the next BC provincial election to be something like CON 37 NDP 29 LIB 17 GRN 16

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

are you ready for the next BC provincial election to be something like CON 37 NDP 29 LIB 17 GRN 16

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

@Prominent_Bryan It's an AI 2024 election map I think

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

what the hell is going on with that map 😭

[Domenic Cinalli - (Antonio Farese) @DomenicCinalli]

The media continues to focus on the final 51%-49% result, but that misses the most important takeaway from the BC Conservative leadership race.

Leadership races are ultimately about building coalitions and demonstrating who can attract support across the province. When you look beyond the final weighted points and examine the riding-by-riding results, a much clearer picture emerges.

Kerry-Lynne Findlay led the race from the very first ballot and never lost that lead. More importantly, she won more ridings than any other candidate in every round of voting. On the first ballot she carried 43 ridings. That grew to 45 in the second round, 52 in the third round, and 55 ridings in the final round.

While the final points were 51% to 49%, the final riding count was 55 ridings for Findlay and 38 for Elliott. That means Findlay carried nearly 60% of all ridings in British Columbia.

That matters because provincial elections are not won by accumulating support in a handful of areas. They are won by building support across the province. The leadership results show that Findlay's appeal was not concentrated in one city, one demographic, or one faction of the party. She was winning in the North, the Interior, the Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island, Surrey, and parts of Metro Vancouver. Her coalition was geographically broader than any other candidate's.

The ranked ballot system ultimately awarded points, and under those rules Findlay won fairly and decisively. But the riding map tells an equally important story. If the contest had simply been determined by who won the most ridings, Findlay would still have won comfortably. In fact, the riding results suggest her support across the province was stronger than the final 51%-49% point margin indicates.

For a party focused on defeating the BC NDP, that should be encouraging. A leader who can build support across a majority of ridings is demonstrating the kind of province-wide appeal required to compete in a general election.

The next challenge is expanding that coalition beyond party members and reaching the nearly 48% of eligible British Columbians who do not vote. Those voters represent the largest untapped political constituency in the province. If the Conservatives can connect with those frustrated and disengaged voters while maintaining the broad regional appeal demonstrated in this leadership race, the results may ultimately be remembered as more than a leadership victory. They may be remembered as the foundation of a coalition capable of competing for government.

#BCPoli #BCConservatives #KerryLynneFindlay #BritishColumbia

[Kevin Liao @KevinLiao_]

ah yes that time again when my entire life existence hinges on tweets from 20 year old election data nerds

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

Finally, Iain Black (3/3).

While Black's voters predominantly broke for Elliott, the flows were weaker to her in Surrey-Delta and the Fraser Valley. Notably, Findlay outright won R3 Black voters 52/48 in the Interior while losing them 59/41 across British Columbia.

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

Here's some fun math for you guys: where did each candidate's votes flow after elimination? Percentage denotes the flow of raw votes, with the exhaust column showing how many voters chose not to rank a candidate after their choice was eliminated.

Starting w/ Peter Milobar (1/3)

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

Next up, Yuri Fulmer (2/3).

Notably, nearly 50% of his voters in Surrey and Delta refused to rank anyone but him. The more white a region was, the less Fulmer's votes were exhausted.

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

Half the time the comments under Mejia's posts on here are Republicans cheering him on and telling him to investigate the Bass Crime Family lol. that + Hispanic last name + Latino #populist appeal will go crazy in a future citywide or even statewide election

[𝖛𝖎𝖈𝖙𝖔𝖗𝖎𝖆 @lilburritogal]

you’d think $7.5 million would buy you a closer city controller race

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

1. Did they make this in Claude

2. Is that why Todd Stone is popping up again?

[Jas Johal @JasJohalBC]

NEW - A 19 page PowerPoint is circulating among those who want to bring the Liberal Party back to BC. A meeting is coming to talk organization and fundraising. Whether this goes anywhere is the real question. #bcpoli #cdnpoli

[Jas Johal @JasJohalBC]

NEW - A 19 page PowerPoint is circulating among those who want to bring the Liberal Party back to BC. A meeting is coming to talk organization and fundraising. Whether this goes anywhere is the real question. #bcpoli #cdnpoli

[Nikolaj🇺🇦🇵🇸 @nikicaga]

I refuse to believe any human being capable of filling out a poll and who is not Rahm Emmanuel wants to nominate Rahm Emmanuel

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

@ProgDirectorate huge day for you

[COPE: Coalition of Progressive Electors @COPEVancouver]

NEW from City Hall: The motion from Councillor @SeanOrr on getting a low-income transit pass has passed unanimously.

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

@algoregeous can you guys get Carney and we take Burnham

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

Wow. You're telling me a former Governor of TWO central banks is imperious and dismissive? I'm shocked.

[Althia Raj @althiaraj]

My latest column. https://t.co/yjj2BeS9rk

[Woke Shrek 🤠 @wokeshrekTO]

Mean Mark lashing out

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

@Robbievicman @gthomasCJca @BCMikeHarris W/ anger over the Colwood crawl and the growth of working-class suburbs out there, I could see CPBC improving upon its 2024 performance and seizing on a rise in the Green vote to give Parmar a scare.

[cade @Cadeyrnn]

@Robbievicman @gthomasCJca @BCMikeHarris The most impressive part is that Langford Highlands + Juan de Fuca Malahat got 414 voters. In 2018/2022 for the BC Libs, they only had 112 and 114 people vote in Langford-Juan de Fuca!