Kayvan

CA by degree, Equity Research by destiny 🚀
Markets, macro & geopolitics keep me up at night
Fashion keeps me sane 😎 | Views are mine | Not SEBI registered

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

Happy birthday 🥳
Thank you for your attention
PREZ DONALD J TRUMP

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

Sandhar daily time frame = strong breakout, then consolidation.
MF holding data also looks selective, not outright bearish.
Am I missing any real headwind here, or is this just healthy digestion after a big move?

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

The forward Indian multiple of roughly 17x on FY27 estimates is the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic. This degree of multiple compression took 18 months in 2013. This time it took only eight. The valuation compression has arrived just as the earnings-recovery cycle is beginning, a combination that has historically defined entry points. 

👆via 13D

@sahilnandu

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

Latest on war

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

Camlin Fine Sciences is one of those “quality turnaround” names worth tracking. Specialty chemicals, global footprint, strong positioning in antioxidants/vanillin, and a cleaner operating setup can unlock meaningful upside if margins and debt move in the right direction. High risk, but the optionality is real.

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

As max as it can get
#speculation

Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.

DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

Here we go all over it again

The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

Here we go again with Trump statements.
Another day, another Trump-Iran headline.
#westasiawar

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

CPI 0.5% MoM, Exp. 0.5%
CPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3%

CPI 4.2% YoY, Exp. 4.2%
CPI Core 2.9% YoY, Exp.2.9%

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

The Bombay High Court yesterday passed an order quashing the Demand Notice issued by DoT imposing OTSC on the ICL and erstwhile Spice Communications Limited (since merged with the Company),aggregating to Rs. 2,113 crores(Seems no int cost included in disclosure)

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

Vodafone Idea’s investor engagement at Jefferies India Access Day in London, alongside the Bombay HC relief on the OTTC matter, marks an encouraging phase for the stock. For those who held on, patience may finally be paying off.

#vodafoneidea

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

7581 crore as at 31st march 2025

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

JNK India (~2341 crore market cap) is building a stronger case as a niche industrial engineering play. The latest large international order improves execution visibility and supports the medium-term growth outlook; the key monitorable remains sustained order conversion and delivery.
#Jnkindia

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

At some point, US investor consensus is going to realize a big part of the reason Hormuz is still closed is because Iran still has a significant degree of fire control over the Strait.

That will be an interesting day.

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Saudi Arabia sounds missile alert in area home to the Prince Sultan Air Base, which hosts US forces.

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

•War escalation is adding volatility again.

•Could be another buying opportunity in quality names.

•Market fear may give better entry points.

•Focus stays on high-quality growth with long-term tailwinds.

•Geopolitical noise creates dislocation, not always damage.

•If the sell-off deepens, selective accumulation makes sense.

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

100 days into the Iran-US conflict and peace looks further away than ever.

Talks are stalled, sanctions remain, missiles are flying, Beirut is being hit, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

Markets watch oil. The world should watch the risk of a much bigger war.

God, please let diplomacy win before this spirals further. 🙏🕊️

[Kayvan @CAKayvan]

🫠🫠
Enough war, enough pain. God, please let peace win. 🙏

[Chander Bhatia @ChanderBhatia01]

The reality of various asset classes/markets-

1- Crude peaked out in June 2008 at around $ 140. I think still it may take many years to breach that level.

2- China market peaked out in 2007 at 6100, yet to cross that level.

3- Bitcoin peaked out in August 2025 at around INR 1,22,000. It is now trading at 61,000.

4- Gold peaked out at $ 5595 in Jan’26 and now trading at $ 4400. I think it would take many years to cross that level.

5- Indian equity market is reasonably priced considering the high-growth economy and likely to head higher in coming months.

6- US, Korea, Japan, and Taiwan markets are trading at a euphoric level. Either these markets have peaked out or likely to peak out in a few weeks and then would take many-many years or 1-2 decades to cross that peak level.

Every asset class or market goes to a euphoria and then peak-out. Thereafter, a prolonged painful period of 1-2 decades. Avoid euphoria and buy value.

History may not repeat but it definitely rhymes.