Calculated Combat

Data-driven MMA betting. Proprietary predictive model. Weekly picks. Honest results. Never stop improving.

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#CFFC161 picks are LIVE 🥊

The model has opinions. Some of them are spicy. One of them is very different from the market.

🟤Nikita Leshukov -235
🟤Xavier Vasquez -400
🟤Hector Pulido +446
🟤Kevin Rosas -165
🟤Matt Gawlik -210
🟤Xhelal Lleshi -800
More👇
https://t.co/cx2paMSvcg

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

For #EFC137, I’m giving a home-cage bonus to:

🌍Boyka Botha
🌍Lukhmaan Jhazbhay
🌍Trevor Mutsila
🌍Ayanda Zwane
🌍Josiah Obasi

EFC is heavily South African, so I only apply a home-cage edge when a fighter faces an outsider.

Free picks 👉https://t.co/gmngAGeCeO

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#NocheUFC picks are live:

🔴Sean King -165
🔴Drakkar Klose +400
🔴David Martinez -360
🔴Marwan Rahiki +146
🔴Brandon Moreno +105

More free picks 👉https://t.co/Kv8egQfpxM

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

Ntando Zondi -170 just dropped, and I grabbed it.👊

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#EFC137 is on Thursday morning

Some picks my model likes:

🥊Ash Zola +160
🥊Sibusiso Sovendle +110
🥊Lewis Mataya -160
🥊German Kokaev -140
🥊Luke Michael -250

More Free picks ⤵️
https://t.co/gmngAGeCeO

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#EFC137 is on Thursday morning

Some picks my model likes:

🥊Ash Zola +160
🥊Sibusiso Sovendle +110
🥊Lewis Mataya -160
🥊German Kokaev -140
🥊Luke Michael -250

More Free picks ⤵️
https://t.co/gmngAGeCeO

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#DWCS Note

Tuesday’s lone DWCS returnee, Won Il Kwon, last fought on the series in October, losing by a brutal spinning elbow.

Our research has found that, unlike most promotions, DWCS veterans tend to get a small bump.

Free Picks 👉https://t.co/n4NdzNKG7R

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

A lot of line movement since these dropped Saturday afternoon, but the model still sees value:

🟢Christian Natividad -290
🟢Won Il Kwon -115
🟢Martin Kozak -480
🟢Reginaldo Junior +116
🟢Arlind Berisha -150

The model hasn’t blinked. 📈

The Read: https://t.co/n4NdzNKG7R

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

The model found value on all 5 #DWCS fights, but the market has already eaten into most of it.

🥊Christian Natividad -267
🥊Won Il Kwon -125
🥊Martin Kozak -375
🥊Reginaldo Junior +125
🥊Arlind Berisha -200

Breakdown: https://t.co/IfOUB2a8IC

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

Sometimes the model is wrong.

Sometimes it’s randomness.

And sometimes I forgot to tell the model something important.

Vol. 1 of What Went Wrong? breaks down two UFC Paris misses and what I can learn from them. 👇
https://t.co/kVt3F7ot73

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

You still have time if you want to bet on #BRAVE108

Line movement has reduced value, but the model still sees an edge in these:

🟠Domen Drnovsek -150
🟠Stephen Loman +100
🟠Andi Vrtacic -700

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

Haven't you gotten your picks in for #UFCParis?

Here are the bouts where my model still sees a betting edge:

✅Sofia Montenegro +125
✅Matthieu Duclos -115
✅Klaudia Sygula +110
✅Fabia Sintes +115
✅Nathaniel Wood -290
✅Felipe Lima -185
✅Losene Keita -320
✅Michael Page -170

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

🥊 #BRAVE108 Promotional Debutants

Three fighters make their BRAVE debut this week:

• Erik Pletikos
• Mathias Prehofer
• Andi Vrtacic
BRAVE debutants receive a small ratings penalty because promotional newcomers have historically underperformed expectations.

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#CFFC160 Result

🥊Egor Kostyuchenko beat Tyler Veal, U-Dec (48-47 x 2 49-46)

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#CFFC160 Result

🥊Elvin Romero beat Daniel Holt, split (29-28 x 2, 28-29)

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#CFFC160 Result

🥊Brandon Bohannan KO'd Brent Williams, R2, ground and pound

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#CFFC160 Result

🥊Buddha Hanchard KO'd Sean Clabough, R2, ground and pound

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#SamouraiMMA21 Result

🥊Michael Dufort subs Antoine Chaput, R2

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#CFFC160 Result

🥊T.J. Schaefer KO'd Connor Cyphert, R1, ground and pound

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#SamouraiMMA21 Result

🥊Alex Morgan KO'd Nilton Gaviao, R1, strikes

[Calculated Combat @CalcCombat]

#CFFC160 Result

🥊Johnny Santos subs Lucas Cortes, R2, rear-naked choke