Iran has included three important tests within the terms the MOU it is negotiating with the United States. These tests are intended to give Iran's leaders confidence that Trump, a counterparty they see as highly unreliable, is ready to make credible commitments, opening a pathway for further diplomacy.
First, the Iranians are testing the credibility of American security commitments by insisting that the MOU encompasses a Lebanon ceasefire. They are not doing this for the sake of Hezbollah or Lebanese Shias. Rather, they want to see if Trump can restrain Israel in its own backyard. If Trump is able to do that, then he might be able to defend his own deal with Iran from further Israeli sabotage.
Second, Iran is insisting on a nominal fee for vessels passing the Strait of Hormuz. This is not because they want more revenue, which would be negligible. They are insisting on this arrangement because they want to test whether Trump will endorse a deal that includes a clear instantiation of Iranian sovereignty and authority, especially one that did not exist before the war. Iran believes in the logic of a win-win agreement. Trump does not. Forcing him to accept a fee forces him to give Iran a "win" and to defend it as such from the Iran hawks in his circle. This is politically meaningful.
Finally, Iran is insisting on a the release of frozen assets. The sums in question are a tiny fraction of the economic cost of the war and the release of assets is not as valuable as sanctions relief that Iran will also be targeting. But by insisting on the release of funds at an early stage of the negotiations, Iran can test whether broader economic commitments, such as sanctions relief, will be credible. Iran will only consider the promise of sanctions relief to be credible if Trump's sanctions bureaucracy allows Iran to move and spend its own money. The Iranian side will insist on transactions that push the Trump administration to set new precedents for how sanctions relief can be operationalized, especially through guidance to banks.
For many in Washington, these demands seem unreasonable. But that is entirely the point. Iran's leadership won't tolerate a kind of narrow deal that allows U.S. policymakers to avoid putting political capital at stake. Iran wants a deal that reflects the unprecedented nature of the war and ensuing crisis. To meet the moment, the diplomacy has to be transformative.
Iran's leaders don't trust Trump, so they are testing him. So far, he is failing these tests.
Netanyahu and Lindsey say its fine to shut down the $3.8B a year in military aid to Israel. They don't tell you how they will make it up— by "partnering" with the US military directly.
It begins here.
This is an alarming read by @BenFreemanDC
https://t.co/QzQmlvwTln
This is a 6-minute Republican video outlining Ken Paxton’s corruption.
This now “unlisted” YouTube video was repeatedly sent out by the NRSC. It’s devastating.
Cornyn was three votes away from being majority leader
He voted against Trump’s impeachment and spent the past year groveling and trying to rename highways with Trump’s name, just for it to end like this
Democrats have provided reflexive & unconditional support to Netanyahu & Israeli governments, even as they undermined the values we claimed to stand for.
It's time to end taxpayer-funded support & condition arms sales to end the occupation & salvage a 2-state solution.
https://t.co/u0670ATFRE
JOHN MEARSHEIMER: “The United States has lost this war. It can't figure out how to solve this war. And it's going to have enormously negative consequences for all of you. You should understand that. We are in deep trouble in Iran..”
A father and his young daughter lie dying having been hit with a precision missile (US made) by Israel.
The ambulance crew arrives to try help.
Israel then hits them with a missile.
All on camera.
Proven.
War crimes.
Yet our leaders still arm them & support them.
Why?
The things @LauraLoomer says on a daily basis are un-American, genocidal and inhuman.
The gunmen’s manifesto included Jewish, Muslim, and Arab hate.
We are one community, one family, literal cousins. We must stand united against Islamophobia and Antisemitism.
Over 3,000 killed. This mass murder must end. The U.S. is not a bystander in the Israeli military's brutal invasion of Lebanon—it is an active participant.
I will force a vote in Congress to immediately end all U.S. participation in this illegal and immoral war on Lebanon.
There’s this bizarre tendency by Zionists to claim that a literal cabinet minister does not represent Israel’s government, while actions by random Palestinians define the entire Palestinian nation. Funny how that works
This is how National Security Minister Ben-Gvir treats detainees when he knows the cameras are rolling — to say nothing of what happens to Palestinians behind closed doors.
This conduct is abhorrent. He should've been sanctioned by the U.S. long ago.
They loved Marjorie Taylor Greene, now they hate her.
They loved Thomas Massie, now they hate him.
They loved Lauren Boebert, now they hate her.
They made fun of Biden for nodding off ("Sleepy Joe), now they ignore Trump outright falling asleep.
They put "I Did That" Biden stickers on high gas prices, now they ignore gas prices being even higher.
They bragged about Trump being the no wars President, now they support war.
They bashed Biden for sending money to Ukraine, now they ignore Trump sending money to both Ukraine and Israel.
They demanded the Epstein files, now they bash anyone asking for the Epstein files.
To be a MAGA is to be a slave.
Not physically, but mentally.
They stand for nothing.
We're up against people who stand for nothing.
And with the most misplaced confidence you've ever seen, they try to tell us whats-what.
We shouldn't even acknowledge these people.
The Trump supporters that remain are mentally too far gone.
I don't even want to argue with them anymore.
Don Lemon: “If Barack Obama had sued his own government, settled with himself in secret, created a billion dollar fund with no congressional oversight to pay his political allies. What if he did that? They would’ve had him in chains before sundown. The National Guard would have been called in. Impeachment articles would have been filed. Can you imagine Fox News?”