CallPut

On-Chain Wall Street

Tracking how capital markets move on-chain

Built on Base

TG:

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

https://t.co/0pKuStxDF0

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@SJosephBurns Not touching the IPO directly.

$TSLA options before June 12. $SPCX options after.

Less exposure to the float trap.

[Rand Group @randgroup]

🇺🇸 Trump's Updated Portfolio

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

[6/7] What about $TSLA?

Since the IPO process started, there have been two very different reactions.

IPO milestones:
- $TSLA tends to struggle.
Synergy announcements:
- $TSLA tends to outperform.

The market often treats IPO events and merger narratives as completely different trades.
June 12 is an IPO event.

The merger narrative, if it comes, is likely a separate chapter.

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

[1/7] 6 days until the $SPCX IPO

Today's CNBC Daily Open headline:
"SpaceX Gets a Reality Check"

For months, the story was simple:
$SPCX only goes up

Now the first real cracks are showing

Let’s look at what Wall Street is seeing and what traders are doing about it👇

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

[5/7] Then there’s the pricing gap.

On-chain markets are trading $SPCX around $203.

Official IPO pricing came in at $135.

Those numbers imply very different valuations.

One market is pricing a much more aggressive future than the other.

June 12 is where theory meets the actual order book.

🔗 Yahoo Finance
https://t.co/izwa0Uplof

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@alex_avoigt Appreciate you sharing that. You gave me a different angle to think about.

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@alex_avoigt Fair. But the dilution math still needs an answer i think

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@alex_avoigt That's the bull case in one sentence.

But Gary Black ran the math. 28% dilution for $TSLA shareholders even with a premium.

What premium do you think makes it work?

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@rohanpaul_ai 2x oversubscribed with 6 days to go.

The demand is real. The question is who's selling into it in August.

$150B chasing 5% of the float is going to make for an interesting first week.

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@farzyness The META playbook:
$100B market cap at IPO. $600B peak 18 months later. Then -77%

SpaceX starting at $1.75T makes the math even more interesting

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@CoinvoTrading META took 14 months to bottom.

The difference here is the staggered lockup. Insiders don't have to wait 180 days. They can start selling in August.

Could be a much faster unwind.

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@muskonomy That's Starlink.

But you're also buying xAI. $6.35B operating loss in 2025. One great business funding one expensive bet.

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@ghostweb3 Exactly. $3.6 trillion in AI IPOs hitting the market at the same time. The rotation is just getting started.

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@DefiWimar Next Thursday is going to be loud for sure

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@DefiWimar The comparison is fair.

But one variable is different this time. The staggered lockup lets insiders start selling as early as August.

It's not 180 days. It's the second trading day after Q1 earnings.

The exit is faster than anyone realizes.

[CallPut @CallPutApp]

@dom_kwok And the staggered lockup lets insiders start selling in August.

They're not giving retail access. They're giving retail the bag.