Calm Compounder

Investing is 20% mechanics, 80% psychology. 🧠 Multi-year long-term investor breaking down the mental frameworks behind patient capital.

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

Most investing accounts tell you what the market did.

This one is about what the market does to you.

Here you'll find: 🧠 The psychology behind good (and terrible) investment decisions 📊 Earnings & macro, filtered for a 5+ year horizon 🔭 Charts that help you zoom out when everyone else panics.

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

@retail_mourinho You’re right, but it’s still way better than having everything you write about and still being broke.🙃

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

@thedankoe This is so true. I’m actually just starting to climb another mountain. 🏔️

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

@NoLimitGains Because some people are assholes 🫠

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

@alc2022 Could it be that the time of the fearless is finally upon us? 🚀

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

Biggest 5-year winners in the S&P 500:

NVIDIA is only the 8th best stock in the S&P 500 over the last five years.

Ahead of it: a company that installs air conditioning and electrical systems (+2,222%), a memory maker, a fuel-cell company, a hard-drive maker and a PC company.

$10,000 in the top name became $232,173. In NVIDIA, $103,899.

The stock everyone talked about wasn't the one that paid the most.

That's usually how it works: the obvious winner gets priced as the obvious winner. The money is made where the demand shows up second, in the memory, the power, the cooling.

$NVDA $FIX $MU

Who will it be five years from now?

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

@FirstSquawk Only 127x this year so far.

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

@BillAckman The craziest thing about it is that it’s true.

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

@LukeBruni17 I owned both, but I gradually exited $NVO completely and moved the entire allocation into $HIMS.

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

@michaeljburry It must be sad to expect the end of the world every other week. 😅

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

@unusual_whales Or there’s another possibility: nothing scary happens at all.

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

Biggest 5-year losers in the S&P 500

Not one of them was a penny stock or a meme. Nike. PayPal. Lululemon. Charter. Adobe missed the top ten by one place.

$10,000 in Charter is now $1,639.

Every one of these was a "quality compounder" in someone's portfolio in 2021. Most had a rising stock price, a famous brand and an analyst consensus behind them.

Quality is not a permanent property of a business. It's a description of how it's doing right now.

$NKE $PYPL $LULU

Who will it be five years from now?

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

It’s insane to say things like this. Under capitalism, you have the freedom to work your way up and the freedom to say and do what you want. Under socialism, you don’t have that freedom or the same opportunity to get ahead, and once capable and hardworking people have no incentive to strive, the whole society becomes poorer and eventually falls apart.

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

Not deciding feels safer than deciding wrong.

So people hold cash "until things are clearer", or keep a losing position "until it recovers" inaction disguised as prudence.

Doing nothing is still a decision. It just doesn't feel like one, because no one can blame you for a choice you never made.

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

The long-term lesson:

Housing didn't crash when everyone expected it to. It's quietly getting cheaper now that nobody's watching.

Big moves rarely come from the headline everyone is staring at.

How do you think the market will evolve from here?

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

The US housing market in 5 years:

Record boom. Rate shock. Deep freeze. Slow thaw.

Here's what actually happened, and what's most likely next 🧵

[Calm Compounder @CalmCompounder]

What's most likely next?

Not a 2008-style crash. Not a new boom.

A long grind: flat nominal prices, slowly falling real prices, and a widening gap between regions.

Fannie Mae projects just +1.0% price growth for 2027.