Capital Flows Clips

Clips from @globalflows

Daily Livestreams and Macro Research are here:

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

My goal is very simple in markets: map the macro regime so I can stay on the right side of it and take massive asymmetric bets.

I am not here for anything less than massive home-run trades

welcome to global macro

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The greatest risks for the equity market are in 3 places: 🧵 (full breakdown)

1) Interest rate volatility rising because of higher inflation.
2) The carry trade unwinding as foreigners are all max-leveraged long AI stocks.
3) The excess leverage that has been pushed into the AI space that has NOT been unwound

I am running trades in lockstep with these flows and the risks around them

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Interest Rate Volatility has moved in lockstep with implied correlations in equity markets because everything in markets has become the same trade 🧵

The chart below shows Bond Volatility (white) and implied correlation of SPX (blue)

The reason understanding this relationship is important is because earlier this year stocks and bonds sold off at the same time which provided ZERO diversification benefit to 60/40 type portfolios.

Now what we are seeing is a greater concentration in the equity rotation that is focusing capital in a few select names.

let's dig in to understand this 👇

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

We are having a discussion with @rossiadam about the entire Space Sector and how it connects into the larger arms race with China and then in the second half we will do an entire breakdown of the rare earths space
https://t.co/NSfo7hecjo

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

LIVE with @jaymesrosenthal and @rossiadam
https://t.co/NSfo7hecjo

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The Credit Cycle and Macro Liquidity are NOT contracting, but Bitcoin can keep falling 🧵

Capital is setting the stage to move even further out the risk curve, but the current rotation is confusing people about the next leg higher in equities

We want to see people misinterpret liquidity because they will be the forced buyers in the next leg higher.

Here is the full breakdown 👇

[Jaymes R. @jaymesrosenthal]

The Fracturing In Global Macro Positioning https://t.co/cMbo177vtz

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The Fracturing In Global Macro Positioning https://t.co/3hrrAnmMVa

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Liquidity Isn't What You Think It Is - @jaymesrosenthal

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The Bank of Japan is making a massive policy error by not hiking enough

If they get more restrictive, it will begin to unwind a ton of leverage in the system

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

This is how the causal chain works for the carry trade and the liquidity Japan is exporting

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The divergence in rate differentials is because the BoJ is no longer the primary driver in the carry trade

this is compressing the tails and causing a ton of capital to move into the AI names in the United States

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The Devaluation Of The Yen and Global Carry Trade https://t.co/UYLN2OynrA

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Call open interest continues to rise in $PURR

I still believe we are building the mechanics and flows for a significant gamma squeeze which would be the cherry on top of the trade I have been laying out

$PURR continues to be my largest position

If anything changes, I will publish a report on my website with it

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

We are at a coinflip on with the Fed actually thinks but the forward curve is pricing hikes

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The bank of Japan has flipped its stance at the same time the fiscal side has turned hot

This has crushed the yen and caused Japan to export a massive amount of liquidity

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

If the BoJ is hiking rates and long end yields are melting up, why aren't equities crashing?

The answer to this explains why capital out of Japan is getting slammed into Mag7 and AI names

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The 5 Task Forces of the Fed are coming

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

This is why we need to shift to real time data with the Fed

[Jaymes R. @jaymesrosenthal]

Warsh Was Setting The Damn Tone:

From the @Globalflows LIVESTREAM Earlier Today

You think he's him?