Lambert

Cross-Asset Trader
Learning How To Navigate Macro Flow

[Tyler Neville @Tyler_Neville_]

Market structure has changed.

Do you know why?

Discounting the future is becoming increasingly harder in a serious productivity boom.

At the same time, centralized market structure (battle between capital & labor) and zero fee trading is exacerbating these market structure phenomenon.

The more centralized the information, the more gambling & prediction markets will be pushed by the centralized oligarchs to extract more from the labor pool.

Some will win, but most will be long term losers.

[Sir Of Finance @SirOfFinance]

Bookmark this for whenever you are confused.

[David Schamis @dschamis]

Hey @HyperliquidX community - let's make sure that @elonmusk and @SpaceX don't make the same mistake that @cerebras made in pricing their IPO.

HL provided price discovery that was very accurate.

Elon - @MorganStanley and the other banks will push back - they will have a long list of reasons as to why you need to price it well below the true market value - don't fall prey to this nonsense.

@HypeStrat @tradexyz $PURR

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

If @elonmusk wants the @SpaceX IPO to get priced properly, he will ensure that there is accountability and transparency for the big banks in the process.

@HyperliquidX is THE only way to price this with transparency so the big banks don’t manipulate things

Retweet this so @elonmusk sees it

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

This will be the first Hyperliquid ETF to be launched, and this will be a major inflection point for both the HYPE token and $PURR

My thoughts on this:

First, this is a major development in the ecosystem. Hyperliquid has always been focused on creating value as opposed to just getting in front of flows. This will continue to distinguish the protocol from other tokens that are just trying to pump the price at the expense of long term holders. I explained this entire mechanism here: https://t.co/7E8bMaWOP6

Second, watching the volume on the ETF and how many tokens it can accumulate will be critical moving forward. IF it aggregates a significant position relative to the float, then it will begin to move markets a lot more.

Third, how does this impact my largest position, PURR? I have been long PURR since it was trading sub 3.50 and we are now up 100%. PURR has been THE primary way to get exposure to the HYPE token in traditional markets and this is now changing. When PURR is the primary way to get exposure, it is possible for it to trade at a premium at discount as larger players have to move the market to adjust their positioning. When we have an ETF come out, traders will begin arbing the ETF against PURR to create much tigher ranges on the upside and downside for the PURR price relative to the underlying NAV. If you want to see my entire thesis for valuing and mapping the price relative to NAV, read this: https://t.co/cI67kjtFih

The question will be, does this change the entire thesis and value proposition for PURR? My answer is that it will depend on the leadership of PURR and how they provide value. At the end of the day, a treasury company has a function in markets that is different than ETFs. The actions of a treasury company is them providing returns ABOVE the underlying. The ETFs create more access so the probability of a premium to NAV occurring due to access issues has decreased.

HOWEVER, the entire question is how can PURR provide value for shareholders ABOVE what a simple ETF can provide. The answer? Several fold: 1) The PURR treasury company has the ability to still issue shares and buy back shares when the price trades at a premium or discount to NAV. @dschamis and @rediamondjr have done a great job at this execution thus far. This has allowed PURR to outperform HYPE and be a significant advantage to shareholders. 2) PURR has access to a credit facility that an ETF does not have. This will allow the PURR leadership to continue to execute its strategy of issuing shares at a premium and buying them back at a discount. Fundamentally, PURR has a significant advantage in the market since they buy back shares. This is very different than other popular treasury companies who only dilute their shares at the expense of shareholders. an ETF does not have this ability to take advantage of market volatility. 3) PURR has the ability to take out credit and buy HYPE, thereby leveraging its balance sheet like any hedge fund type vehicle that is trying to increase its exposure. If this happens, this creates optionality for PURR over an ETF. 4) PURR has the ability to generate yield on its HYPE holdings that can allow excess returns relative to HYPE spot. Similar to any hedge fund type vehicle, PURR has many different ways of generating yield through market dislocations, extracting returns from premiums in markets and partnering with the Hyperliquid team to create a stronger bridge between Hyperliquid and the traditional financial system.

5) The most significant opportunity for PURR leadership will be functioning as a beacon in the decentralized Hyperliquid space to create bridges that would otherwise not exist. Because Hyperliquid has gone about building value in a manner that doesnt have the typical institutional conflicts, many bifurcations exist in the industry that PURR leadership can help bridge. There will be so many opportunities that happen ON TOP OF the Hyperliquid blockchain that need a centralized rallying point that people can acnhor to in order to build partnerships so that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. PURR has a unique opportunity to function as the rallying point for decentralized players such as the Hyperliquid team, centralized players that enter the space after the work of @HyperliquidPC, the entire ecosystem of traders who actively move large size in the perps market, and the entire crypto industry. PURR has a unique opportunity to connect all of these players to create a whole that is greater than the sum of the parts around the newest financial instrument of perpetuals. If PURR sits at the middle of these relationships and actively facilitates them to further take stakes in other projects built on Hyperliquid or receiving various types of residuals as they build a whole that is greater than the sum of the parts, then they have an opportunity that no ETF can possibly even imagine.

Remember, Hyperliquid is a platform that is designed to actually produce cash flow, generate value, and have that value creation directly flow to shareholders in a systematic fashion. This is dramatically different than any other crypto project and the track record of success for Hyperliquid is already clear.

As we embark on this next stage of Hyperliquid ETFs, PURR leadership in the system, and integration on the regulatory side through the hard work of @HyperliquidPC, aligning yourself with people who are creating these types of systems will be THE key thing to watch for. opportunity

This is a significant opportunity for PURR to provide value that no ETF could provide and this is why I continue to hold my shares in PURR and why I think they have the potential to do significantly more than the market can even imagine. I will continue to share my views in reports on my website and I will explain all of this even more in the livestream tomorrow morning at 8:30am MST. All the links and research for this will be sent out today here: https://t.co/rpJr1XL6FO

HYPERLIQUID

[Arrakis Global @ArrakisGlobal]

What happens when you embrace life as a trader, living on your own PnL

1) you treat the general volatility of life with equanimity, sh*t happens everyday in the portfolio and its a reflection of life. Most people want to suppress vol (salary, stability etc)

[🕊️ @lichthauch]

God gives you talents not so you can bury them in humility but so you can compound them into weapons against the dark

[Lambert @CapitainLambert]

Capital is an energy seeking survival, fleeing political uncertainty, deferred promises, and poor energy allocation.
It seeks liquidity, immediacy, and frictionless rails, driving the emergence of new financial, technological, and monetary systems.

[Lambert @CapitainLambert]

The noiseless harmony of the whole action. @Globalflows

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

https://t.co/TvPknZu1v8

[🕊️ @lichthauch]

The masculine urge to build something so beautiful your enemies weep when they burn it down

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Subscribe frens

1) https://t.co/xOr3TDe6sK

2)https://t.co/yHB7kP0mfO

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Macro Podcast on interest rates, SOFR, regulation, and global policy with @Dcpcooks and @jupiters_string

If you are trying to wrap your head around WHERE interest rates are going and WHY we haven't had a recession yet, watch this

[Lambert @CapitainLambert]

The dollar is not losing its dominance because it is weak, but because it is being used as a weapon.
The dollar is not retreating for lack of power, but because its use as a tool of sanctions pushes the world to work around it. The dollar wears down from being constantly wielded.

[🕊️ @lichthauch]

Blessed are the hungry for they shall devour worlds, blessed are the broken for they know which pieces matter, blessed are the sleepless for they see what dreams hide. Cursed is the man who never bleeds for his blood runs thin, cursed is the child who never wants for his wanting grows weak, cursed are the comfortable for comfort is the first death. The strong were forged in fire they did not choose, the weak were spared the flames they needed most

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

I’ll be sending out a livestream link in a few minutes. Will cover all the global macro views and update on the credit cycle.

Retweet this for me frens 🤝
https://t.co/xOr3TDeEii

[Lambert @CapitainLambert]

Examining the outcomes of a central bank has little meaning in itself, since we can only observe one state of the world the one resulting from the decisions actually taken and not the alternative paths that could have occurred.

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The next report will cover the credit cycle, cross-border flows, and HOW the global liquidity picture is evolving

If this tweet gets 1k likes, I'll make it free for everyone 🫡

Everything will be sent out here:
https://t.co/h841YoeoCq

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

I am in the process of writing the next macro report, breaking down all major economic data points and connecting them to HOW markets are developing and WHERE we are likely to move.

If this tweet gets 2k likes, I'll make it free for everyone

Run it!

https://t.co/h841YoeoCq

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Boomers had houses, we have AI

Imagine being the boomer who never bought a house and always rented. That is the equivalent of what is currently happening right now

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

“Financial freedom”

“Generational wealth”

“True wealth” (picture of some farm)

The only thing that matters is a genuine relationship with God based on the Bible. Once I realized this, everything came into perspective and priorities were adjusted accordingly

Happy Friday🤝🏻