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$3 trillion is now locked inside venture funds that are more than 10 years old.
At the same time, DPI hit just 9% in both 2024 and 2025 (Source: Allocator Training Institute) — the lowest levels private markets have seen in decades.
And even if SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic eventually go public, it likely won’t solve the underlying problem.
The traditional venture model was built around a very different world:
raise a fund, deploy capital, exit within ~10 years, return cash to LPs, repeat.
But the best private companies no longer need the public markets.
They can raise billions privately.
Stay private for 15–20+ years.
Provide liquidity through secondaries instead of IPOs.
And continue compounding outside the public markets entirely.
That changes everything:
- LP liquidity
- DPI expectations
- fund construction
- continuation vehicles
- secondaries
- venture fund duration
- employee liquidity
- portfolio concentration
- even the definition of what an “exit��� actually is.
The most interesting part of my conversation with Jared Carmel wasn’t just the scale of the problem.
It was the realization that this may not be a temporary cycle.
It may be the new structure of private markets.
We went deep on:
- why companies are staying private longer
- the rise of secondary markets
- why continuation vehicles are exploding
- the hidden RSU problem inside unicorns
- why venture increasingly behaves like an “access class”
and why the future of liquidity may look completely different than the last 20 years.
Really enjoyed this conversation with Jared Carmel of Manhattan Venture Partners.
We’d like to thank @AlphaSenseInc for sponsoring this episode!
#VentureCapital #Secondaries #PrivateMarkets #DPI #ContinuationVehicles #InstitutionalInvesting
Continue the episode using the links in the comment below 👇
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Max is, mathematically, one of the highest performing VCs of the last 10 years and this is his first public interview.
Absolutely thrilled for the world to get to know my business partner @maxaltman the way I do.
Much love to our old friend @HarryStebbings - thanks for a great ep @twentyminutevc
@spittinchiclets Should the ref have blown this dead as I pass the red line?? I was just trying to get some offensive momentum going! …Toyota Sports Complex LA Men’s League
@grok how do we best combat what is discussed here? Specifically the housing affordability in a time where first time home buyers are priced out of most if not all major cities and going up against institutions, investors, second or third time home buyers, and folks with co signers?
Had a blast last week in Austin touring Base Powers HQ and their first manufacturing site with co-founder Justin Lopas. Today they are announcing a $1B Series C led by Addition. Come take a tour with me and hear more on their future plans and open roles: