Crypto analysis in 2024: The dog has a hat
Crypto analysis in 2026: Strait of Hormuz, auto-translate from Farsi, tracking military movements via OSINT, oil futures backwardation
@Alejandro_XBT Yeh, still feels like were in the range where everybody has money and everybody is buying thinking they are being smart. Time will tell.
@AutismCapital His Chinese secret-service psy-op has been concluded as successful and he is retiring to the Chinese countryside on full-pay and a hero's medal.
If everyone is supposedly bearish then:
Why do I get hundreds of comments saying "I can't wait for you to be wrong" on every video I post expressing a bearish view?
Why do dozens of influencers tweet about me weekly laughing and saying that BTC follows M2, ISM, etc. and that this is a 5 year cycle or supercycle?
Why is it that every time I join a twitter space, the collective response is for people to label me a doomer for having the audacity to suggest midterm years are not great for BTC?
It's easy to pretend like everyone is a bear, but one look at plenty of influencers on this app would show the opposite.
I see a lot of influencers who missed the top and faded the four year cycle now desperately want the market to bail them out.
I see influencers that shilled altcoins for 4 years because they thought alt season was coming and now they desperately are searching for any reason that the market won't go lower.
Social interest in crypto is still trending down. Monetary policy remains restrictive, and macro headwinds continue to exist for the first half of 2026.
BTC always forms lows in February of midterm years, then has countertrend rallies that lasted a few weeks, before the market then drops again.
No amount of mental gymnastics will change how the market cycles tend to work.
We can keep pretending that everyone is a bear, but one look at the comment section on any of my bearish tweets would prove otherwise.
@pearlythingz Third date, had already slept together. We went to a cafe for a snack/coffee, she then complained to me that we should have gone somewhere for real food then also got in a bad mood when the waiter got her drink wrong. What the fuck would happen in an actual stressful situation?
@MichaelAArouet Because at least 2 million here are playing the overly generous welfare state which lets you sit there for a year on benefit before even really applying for a job. then, you can selectively apply or some jobs for another year without actually having to take one....outrageous.