Causal Map

Causal QDA for evaluation & research. | |

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

@aquavoice works great but to be actually useful, a browser extension for desktop and an app for mobile, now that would be something wonderful

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

@vjhofmann Would that be an equally valid bias measure?
Some more thoughts here: https://t.co/900mQSX282)

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

@vjhofmann Very interesting. You don't seem to mention that the L1-L2 pairs are embedded in a prompt which is also in some language, in your case SAE. How would an LLM respond to an instruction in say Mexican Spanish which compared SAE and AAE quotes?

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

Kudos to Appsilon - in The Financial Times 1000 - Appsilon Community https://t.co/l2KF4IUS1F

[Kareem Carr, Ph.D. @kareem_carr]

Four life lessons I learned while studying statistics:

1. False positives vs false negatives: Fewer false positives often come at the cost of more false negatives and vice versa.

LIFE LESSON: The less stringent your criteria, the more crap you need to deal with, but the more stringent your criteria, the more genuinely good stuff you miss out on.

Missed opportunities is the price of never wasting your time. Wasting your time is the price of never missing an opportunity.

2. Overfitting vs Underfitting: Less flexible models can't fit the data. More flexible models are prone to picking up patterns that don't generalize.

LIFE LESSON: Over-thinking makes you more vulnerable to seeing patterns that aren't there. It turns you into a misinformation machine.

3. Bias vs Variance: More complex models give less consistent answers. Less complex models give more biased answers.

LIFE LESSON: There is a natural trade-off between nuanced thought and consensus.

People get mad when experts disagree especially when non-experts don't but that's actually what you would expect.

4. Curse of Dimensionality: Given a fixed amount of scenarios to learn from, there's a point beyond which considering additional factors stops helping.

LIFE LESSON: If you haven't experienced much, keep things simple. Nuance without experience is actively harmful.

SUMMARY:
The common theme I see is these are cautionary tales for over-thinkers like me. There are hard mathematical limitations on what we can possibly know as rational beings.

There is wisdom in knowing when to think but there's also wisdom in knowing when to stop.

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

@STN_Airport What's going on with the shuttle please?

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

Win a £500 prize, free subscriptions & free support -- for all #PhD and #Master students using #causalmapping in your research!
Deadline extended to 10 December.
Free subscriptions = first-come-first-served. https://t.co/uI4DzLO9iq

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

Evaluators! tell us about your evaluation failures!
https://t.co/fgjSMfL3Et
#eval22 #evaluation #CausalPathways #ReclaimingCausal #Complexity #SystemsChange

[George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot]

Here's the Institute of Economic Affairs (@iealondon) - the dark-money lobby group that mentored Liz Truss - crowing about the mini-budget on September 23rd.
And ... 🧵

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

@traffyaston Ooh I wonder if that's true? Better ask an expert.

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

@lyconrad Oh you're not the first - there's lots of 'casual' mapping going on! 😂 Thanks for your original tweet though!

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

Update from Causal Map - https://t.co/cANmcxSMtO

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

Another award! We feel really honoured to have been selected for this year’s @SAGE_Publishing Concept Grant for the Causal Map app 🤸‍♀️

Read more here 👇
https://t.co/53HpbhRt0u

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

It has been a busy summer with lots of updates on the app 🌞

Our latest blog discusses one of our favourite updates; smart-zooming which allows you even more options when presenting findings!

👉https://t.co/BxV0sNzGpH👈

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

Update from Causal Map - https://t.co/zJHnPxEHLW

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

Update from Causal Map - https://t.co/biM5QbHGXY

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

Last Autumn @LynchPinSupport evaluated a professional development program using StorySurvey, in our most recent blog she shares why this was the right fit for the study and her experience using it

🎇 https://t.co/mwznnvhLuB 🎇

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

@LukeCraven Trick question?
Systems change is the kind of change which you get in systems?
Sounds like we have a usage in which "change" means only or merely other kinds of change?

[Bath SDR @BathSdr]

Interested in causal mapping and how we use it with causal mechanisms #QuIP #qual data? Join me and @CausalMap @stevepowell99 tomorrow at 13.45 in room Galoppen 10 at 'Theory and Outcomes Orientated Evaluation' session #EES2022

[Causal Map @CausalMap]

@EES_Eval How big are the boards (maximum size) for the posters please?