From the Weekender: When someone yells fire, the exit is never large enough. 🔥
#corn just suffered its worst week in nearly 17 years. July futures fell 6.6% to $4.24 as managed money headed for the exits. 🚨
Will the rout continue? 🌽
🔗in comments
📈Funds are record bullish CBOT soybean oil & Minne wheat, and they're now net long in CBOT wheat for the first time in nearly 4 years.
But funds' corn buying streak snapped. I discuss implications of specs' latest positioning in Sunday's mailing, plus a bonus on corn exports.
BREAKING: 🚨🚨🚨🚨
Another first of my 20 year career.
Brazil exporters have gone NO BID. Never seen Brazil origination go NO bid in my life and I don’t think anyone else has.
🇺🇸U.S. ethanol production continued at a strong rate last week, topping 1.11M barrels per day for a third straight week.
For the last three weeks, output has been about 3% above the year-ago levels.
Now, with the Supreme Court overruling Trump's tariffs, China has no incentive to fulfill the 8mmt agreement Trump tweeted about. Brazilian beans are $1.50 cheaper than ours and they're in harvest....
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were in line with expectations last week (soybean meal was above). China and Egypt led the way in soybeans, Japan and Mexico in corn. Despite comfortably missing the top end of estimates, both corn and soybean sales were above average for the week.
All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand report due Tuesday at 11 am CT. On average, analysts don't expect major changes to U.S. and world stocks, though Brazil's corn and soybean crops could increase. U.S. demand will also be in focus, esp. w/ recent China developments.
🚨🇻🇪🇺🇸 | SE BURLA DE MADURO: Con Diosdado Cabello enojado al lado, Delcy Rodríguez afirmó que "Venezuela ha madurado" tras la captura del exdictador Nicolás Maduro.
🥛🇦🇷 | EFECTO MILEI: Las exportaciones del sector lechero alcanzaron su nivel más alto de los últimos 12 años, con 425.042 toneladas por un valor de 1.690 millones de dólares.
Soy inspections may feel like they are doing unusually good since volumes are finally at season-high levels, but they are only average (maybe a hair above) in historical context. Not corn, though. Record pace continues. Wheat chugging along as expected.
California's Central Valley produces 80% of the world's almonds. Each almond requires 3.2 gallons of actual irrigation water to grow. Not rainfall. Actual tap water pumped from aquifers.
One gallon of almond milk requires 162 gallons of irrigation water. Compare that to dairy milk at 8 gallons of tap water per gallon, with the rest being rainfall that falls on pasture anyway.
But here's where it gets properly grim. Almonds bloom for exactly three weeks in February. During those three weeks, California needs every pollinating bee in North America transported to the Central Valley or the crop fails entirely.
Commercial beekeepers truck in 31 billion honeybees. That's two-thirds of America's entire managed bee population, all concentrated in one valley for three weeks. The bees are packed into trucks, driven across the country, dumped into almond groves drenched in pesticides, worked to exhaustion, then packed up and shipped to the next crop.
The mortality rate is catastrophic. Beekeepers report losing 30 to 50% of their hives annually. That's billions of bees dead. Not from natural causes. From being used as disposable pollination machines for your almond milk.
The pesticides don't help. Almond groves are sprayed with neonicotinoids which scramble bee navigation systems, fungicides which weaken their immune systems, and herbicides which eliminate the wildflowers they'd normally forage on between almond blooms.
Meanwhile the aquifer depletion is permanent. The Central Valley has sunk 28 feet in some areas from groundwater extraction. That water took 10,000 years to accumulate. It's being drained in decades for almond milk.
Your vegan latte killed more bees and used more water than a year's worth of dairy milk. But it's got "plant-based" on the label so you're definitely saving the planet.
🇧🇷Agroconsult on Thursday pegged Brazil's soybean crop at 182.2 million tons amid its ongoing crop tour, stating that there could be additional upside pending tour results.
Earlier on Thursday, Conab cut its crop forecast by 1 mmt to 176.1 mmt on lower yields.
"CO₂ is the gas of life."
Renowned astrophysicist and geoscientist Dr. Willie Soon refutes claims that CO₂ is a harmful gas responsible for global warming, hurricanes, and extreme weather events.
He dismisses such claims as "nonsense".
"I've published scientific papers refuting all of these arguments."