Cedars Hill Macro

Buy-side PM, Sell-side Trader, Family Office CIO. Macro Strategy and Micro Execution. Proprietor of Cedars Hill Group

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

I’ve always valued the truth over coherence. I’m not good at marketing, I don’t have a lot of followers, but I’m an expert at the markets and want to share that with the world. Which is why I started this project.

https://t.co/roqmkLMmHP

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

Litigation Finance: An Industry at a Crossroads https://t.co/ACXZ7KrH8Z

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

the markets seem to like the blockade which makes sense but they don't seem to realize that this extends the timeline of the war and should expand the Brent-WTI spread

https://t.co/HAZRkGe4Eg

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

so many opinions based purely on conjecture and speculative media reports.

what is the point?

to get followers?

to be able to say you called it?

no one cares

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

its simple supply and demand. too many VCs and PEs force the price up and returns come down.

how we work out of all this stuff is the fun part that is still in front of us

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

adult swim time
https://t.co/ocwNQGnhTS

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

👇this is the way you update your priors

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Fwiw and it's irrelevant for now. Dampedspring was looking to go long. Two's , Thirties, Gold, and SPX into what was the developing washout pre taco. NOT Because we expected a Taco as everyone on the planet expected a taco but for other reasons. Given the price action today. We are LOWERING the levels we would buy all assets NOT chasing current levels.

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

what was the low today for $GLD?

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

$GLD failed upside breakout

opens door for a retest of $418a

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

$GLD failed upside breakout

opens door for a retest of $418a

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

86 cents on the dollar doesn't reflect any real credit worries just wider risk premiums. This is the worst price to buy a credit because the next stop is either 30 cents or par

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

Unsurprising: JPM just pulled the Qualtrics deal. $5.3B in debt that’s hung

Existing loan trading at 86 cents. Was par in February.

Banks committed to the financing in October.

Software credit is now too toxic for the syndicated market.

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

💯We called it a "target rich environment" in this week's letter...also vol as a measure of time dilation

https://t.co/kHjP7qqAEm

[Andrew Mack @Gingfacekillah]

H/T @SinclairEuan @HullTactical

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

💯

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Alls I'm saying about credit trading for alpha is this.

Trading credit for alpha most of the time is really really stupid (except single names). Credit doesn't move most of the time. Most institutions just own credit risk to collect risk premium

Trading credit for alpha some of the time is extremely smart. BUT never buy during the widening. Wait for the massive panic and forced selling. That isn't today.

I've been a credit trader since 1988. The silo always defends during a drawdown and doubles and triples down. Trust me I've done this a few times in my life. Don't be those guys. You don't have a chance. Buy when they are forced out.

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

I love hearing these analysts on CNBC hyperventilate about how overdone the AI software selloff is.

They have no idea what they are talking about.

Go build a simple neural network and figure out how these things work and then tell me its over done.

https://t.co/bK6hitdFxe

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

I am living in this hell rn

[Jared Sleeper @JaredSleeper]

Thinking that agents will make life “easier” is analogous to imagining that hiring a hundred employees will reduce your cognitive load.

Ask any founder how well that works. 😂

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

@nntaleb look up Mark Wildman on youtube

I'm 6'5'', 1-2k annual miles on the road bike, lots of shoulder, neck and lower back pain. KB's have helped a lot, but Mark's basic human movement instruction has been key.

he was a biologist or something prior

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Let's Get Physical! Goldman Sees Rotation From 'Financial Assets' To 'Real' Economy https://t.co/HaA4rBrUxw

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

If AI makes all workflows better and most workflows are built around sales does that mean we are all going to get more and better email marketing?

And will this mean that it will make marketing more difficult?

There is a circularity here….

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

most of the startup software companies I have worked with or met recently have business models that are now obsolete.

It is truly amazing how quickly things are moving.

If your model is workflow automation or data aggregation then you are a dinosaur

https://t.co/ViBJKAUuRa

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

$GLD failed upside breakout

opens door for a retest of $418a

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

https://t.co/ViBJKATX1C

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

the fears around software are right and wrong for different reasons.

i started in this business in 1996 and lived through the internet bubble and things are much different this time.

things are changing much faster.

[Cedars Hill Macro @CedarsHill]

we have to disaggregate the LLMs from the agents built on top of the LLMs. the agents are powerful but have zero durability. the LLMs are durable, they are the foundation. everything built on top is just a replay of the old software development playbook