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Here are two scenarios I often look at after a breakout.
Scenario A: The breakout happens, and then the price makes a shallow pullback towards the 10/20 EMA. It spends a few days correcting, comes closer to the moving average, finds support and starts moving up again.
Scenario B: The breakout happens, but instead of pulling back, the price simply goes sideways. Since the 10/20 EMA is a fast-moving average, it slowly catches up with the price while the stock remains stuck in a range.
Both scenarios can work.
But I generally prefer Scenario A.
The reason, In A, the price is actually correcting and finding support near the EMA. In B, the price hasn't really made progress after the breakout. The EMA is only catching up because the stock has gone sideways.
For me, a controlled pullback to the EMA is usually a healthier sign than the EMA catching up to a stalled price.
#Trading
Fibo tek başına yeterli değildir. EMA da tek başına yeterli değildir.
Asıl avantaj, ikisinin aynı bölgede buluştuğu noktalarda ortaya çıkar.
📌 15 Dakika → EMA 9 / 21 (Hızlı işlemler)
📌 60 Dakika → EMA 20 / 50 (Trend teyidi)
📌 4 Saat → EMA 50 / 100 (Swing işlemler)
📌 Günlük → EMA 50 / 200 (Ana trend)
Fibonacci seviyeleri olası dönüş bölgelerini gösterir.
EMA'lar ise trendin gücünü ve yönünü teyit eder.
İkisi aynı noktada buluşuyorsa, o bölge artık sadece bir seviye değil, yüksek olasılıklı bir karar alanıdır.
Piyasada başarılı olmak, daha fazla indikatör kullanmak değil; doğru araçları doğru yerde birleştirmektir.
#BIST100 #Borsa #TeknikAnaliz #Fibonacci #EMA #Yatırım #SwingTrade #Trader
Market Wizard Linda Reschke's 12 Technical Trading Rules:
1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low.
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day.
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon.
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend.
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness.
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation.
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close.
8. High volume on the close implies continuity the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour.
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day.
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day.
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach.
The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior.
Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. Principle One:
A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal Principle Two:
Momentum Precedes Price Principle Three:
Trends End in a Climax Principle Four:
The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction!
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word –
Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
When I first started trading I was completely lost
I soon realized that the best traders in the world all focus on 1 thing:
Tight price action or the VCP (Volatility contraction pattern)
When I discovered this concept everything changed..
I stopped chasing random moves.
I started searching for tightness.
Price is like a spring:
-It compresses
-Volume decreases
-Higher lows are made
This builds energy for the next move up
the tighter the coil, the bigger the potential release, and our job as traders is to recognize that energy building.
Then position yourself when the spring explodes.
Train you eyes to search for this tightness and it will change the way you trade
4 Entry Types Every Swing Trader Should Know
1. PDH Entry
Price moves above the Previous Day’s High. It shows strength continuing from the last session.
2. Pullback Entry Buying a stock that’s already leading when it dips to an EMA, trendline, or support zone. The pullback should be controlled, not aggressive.
3. Pivot Break Entry
Price breaks a level that has been rejected multiple times. This suggests sellers at that level are finally out of the way. A clean breakout candle usually confirms it.
4. Anticipation Entry
Entering slightly before a breakout, usually inside a tight consolidation on a day where price has gone pretty tight, at EOD. The structure should already be strong so the breakout has a higher chance of happening. Gives better risk–reward.
I made millions of $’s trading in the NQ pit at CME, after divorce in 03, remarried in 05, huge changes in floor trading I was slow to react to, 2008 my Mom died in June, my sister died in Nov & my mother-in-law in March plus failure of my prop group I owned, real estate investments gone, investments gone, I went back on the floor in the Hog pit to rebuild. MF Global failed in 2011 & I failed with it. I began to chase the large amount of money MFG took, I was swinging 6 figures a day till I had nothing left—totally broke. I was married with 5 kids. We sold our house, moved into my dad’s home—like Job, I sat on my pile of dung feeling terribly sorry for myself. I saw no way out or no way back.
However, I had the love of a good woman who saw what I couldn’t, a semblance of faith in a God who loved me. I smoked too much, drank too much, and was terribly depressed. I had a choice. Give up, or put one foot in front of the other in love and faith. 10+ years later, I am a better trader than ever, a better father and husband, I am in better shape at 55 than ever. My kids are all happy and healthy. My wife and I couldn’t be more in love. I now know the difference between being rich and being wealthy. If you are struggling, DO NOT give up. Keep moving forward……. It gets better. God bless you all. Pray for Peace.
Why do some flags explode and others flop?
It’s pure psychology in the price action.
Tight + low volume = conviction.
Loose + noisy = doubt.
This sheet shows you exactly how to spot it.
#Trading
Most traders think success is about finding the perfect strategy.
The best traders know it’s about having a team, a system, and the psychology to override their instincts.
Pradeep Bonde taught a security guard
one simple setup.
That trader turned $5,000 into over $100 million
and just landed in the Market Wizards book.
Bonde gave the whole method away for free.
Here's the core of it 👇
William O’Neil (1933–2023) explains how the general market creates major tops long before most investors realize what’s happening.
In this classic lesson, O’Neil analyzes more than 10 leading stocks simultaneously, showing how market leaders often begin breaking down before the broader market peaks.
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