Rashmi Pusapati

Macro Strategist: The Bears are Traps, don’t sell ❤️

[Rashmi Pusapati @ces9220]

@crypto_pump00 bc1qxuqsfe76z2z23xxe4aeswxdse6eyw8kkxe4xms

[Rashmi Pusapati @ces9220]

@SolanaxBeast Ai1iL4izhZryx5bQwAdN1KqKaJtREbk9AsvyeTLRYVvT

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

“I’m a huge proponent of Bitcoin. I think it hits $1 million. I’ve never been more bullish.” — @EricTrump

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

1/ The bond market is flashing a late-cycle warning. After last week’s payroll miss and today's softer than expected PPI release, we’re in the middle of a bull flattener.

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

5/ Bull flatteners aren’t about soft landings. They’re about stress. They’re cycle markers. Ignore them and you end up late.

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

6/ I broke down the parallels, the risks, and the positioning playbook in my latest note from earlier this week:

https://t.co/eZElysainx

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

This Tricolor / subprime bankruptcy situation wasn't on my radar screen until now but I can't say I am particularly surprised to hear that a lender to low end consumers is struggling.

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

I think we could be entering the part of the cycle where Bitcoin begins to positively disconnect from equities as you want to be exposed to the growing liquidity coming from the Fed cutting cycle but you don't want to be exposed to the deteriorating corporate earnings outlook that comes from the economic slowdown that is forcing the Fed to cut rates.

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

I'm live all week with @AnthonyCrudele and @chigrl at 8am talking about the news of the day

Come join, ask questions in the chat.

https://t.co/XddpO1CWwF

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

Is this US gonna do this too?

Or are we too afraid of China's control over rare earths to do this to China?

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

-911k revisions for NFP

Anyone else out there thinking this is just a trolling number?

Cmon. 911. Give me a break

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

Chart of the Day from the NY Fed:

3M Job Finding Expectations if One Loses a Job Today

Series low probability dating back to 2013

The labor market outlook is no bueno

@chigrl @AnthonyCrudele @RMConservative

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

Live on the @NinjaTrader TV morning now all week with @chigrl and @AnthonyCrudele

Tons of macro data to get through (PPI, CPI, Bond auctions) in the run up to the Fed's rate cutting cycle re-commencement next week.

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

Markets trade on stories, not just data.

Last week the story broke: this is no longer ‘insurance cuts' for the Fed.

It’s cuts forced by deterioration in the economy.

My memo below

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

https://t.co/hYzy2Pvg9l

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

How long until the administration declares a National Emergency on Electricity prices?

@jvisserlabs

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

The narrative just broke. The Fed isn’t cutting into strength anymore. It’s cutting into weakness.

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

That’s the trap.
Move too slow → unemployment accelerates.
Move too fast → inflation expectations reignite.

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

Powell isn’t choosing to cut. He’s being forced.
I break down the labor data, the curve, and what it means for risk assets in my latest Substack. Have a nice weekend all

https://t.co/zyuKxmMiCt

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

We are live talking about insights from @Convertbond trip to DC this week as well as today's important Non-farm payroll print which could be leading to a Narrative Shift for markets