ConcernForTheWorld

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

We harmonize wastewater data with Swiss Re- based estimates of excess mortality. The upper bound scenario maps most closely onto reality (continued low boosting rates, minimal NPI use, comorbidities, disparities). Thus, about 1,000 Americans are expected to die as a result of this week's infections that otherwise would not. These are mostly non-acute deaths (e.g., heart attack 3 months later, got sick and had to stop cancer treatments, etc.). A lot of this is political, but it's also shaped by a lack of curiosity from public health scientists, many whom have never read the Swiss Re report.

[ConcernForTheWorld @CFTW2026]

Apparently there are Chief Neurologists out there who find humor in deadly disease spread.

[Christos Argyropoulos MD PhD 0kale/acc 🇺🇸 @ChristosArgyrop]

Lol "winter disease" in August 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

🚨BREAKING 🦠
On Friday, the US CDC arbitrarily shifted higher COVlD levels into lower categories depicted with cooler colors.

Much of what was Very High is now "High." What was High is now "Moderate" or "Low." Low is "Very Low."

🔹2 states/territories artificially shifted from High to Moderate (MS, GU)
🔹5 shifted from Moderate to Low (CA, TX, AK, WA, NV)
🔹4 shifted from Low to Very Low (AZ, AR, LA, NC)

During intense surges, states will rarely get classified as Very High anymore. Presently, transmission is rising across the US, with a 75% chance of a wave, but states will be depicted in blue (Very Low) much longer, making communities less prepared. #Bluewashing

Normally, when the CDC makes a methodology change, they flag it prominently on each of their COVlD monitoring pages. This time, there was no alert and no explanation. Major changes were confined to COVlD, not Influenza A, and not RSV. The questionable change was made in the middle of rising transmission across most of the country; 15 states already have COVlD outbreaks, and others may soon join the ranks. These are serious ethics concerns that warrant investigative journalism.

These issues are aggravated by delayed reporting at High/Very High monitoring sites. Sites with 1-week reporting delays get excluded when the CDC calculates current levels. For example, only 16% of the sites online in Texas (3 of 19) report High/Very High levels, but 90% of those with a 1-week reporting delay (18 of 20) have High/Very High levels, leading the state to get classified as "Low" when really High. These issues snowball and can easily push a state down 1-2 categories when experiencing significant COVlD outbreaks.

The good news is that the individual wastewater monitoring site data are still valid. The bad news is that the CDC maps and level descriptions will now mislead the casual user. Think: "Good data, bad use of data." At PMC, we told you that if there was any funny business at the CDC, we would warn you right away. We diagnosed the issue immediately and will still report accurate COVlD information.

Expect further national news coverage this week. Journalists are welcome to reach out.

[ConcernForTheWorld @CFTW2026]

@l3ckbobby @TriciaDearborn "Take something not meant for humans instead of something approved by the FDA and proven to be effective through rigorous studies." ~ Läckbobby

[Tricia Dearborn @TriciaDearborn]

For all those thinking Covid is "over" ... there's currently a surge in the US.
And a reminder that it's not a "cold" that's over in a few days, but a vascular disease that leaves a significant number of people with health problems, some annoying, some debilitating, some deadly.

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

Waiting lists grow for clinicians who mask.

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

NY Post warns of the COVlD wave, encourages adults & children to get boosted.
🔥15 states/territories with outbreaks
🔥XFG variant family dominates
🔥Levels in California higher than last winter
They use a clever strategy of not saying the C-word until 4th paragraph (link next).

[ConcernForTheWorld @CFTW2026]

@michael_hoerger @crisis_parade "Official public health information" in an oxymoron at best given the utter dismantling of disease tracking at the federal level.

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

This post has been blocked on LinkedIn 🤣

[CNN @CNN]

Although the autumn respiratory illness season hasn’t kicked off, and flu and RSV activity remain low, there’s a growing summer wave of Covid-19. https://t.co/Nnzodszdj4

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

We are getting COVlD-related school closures in Louisiana. This is in the Baton Rouge area, 90 miles NW of me. There is no rigorous public COVlD surveillance in Louisiana outside of New Orleans, so take this as your sign Louisiana.
H/t @markwarling3

[Keith @keetmuise]

It’s not too late to start trying to avoid Covid again. Many people who followed the “Covid is mild” deceleration continue on without masking and using other mitigations because of shame, guilt and peer pressure. Don’t.

Some people think, “well it’s too late now” because they have had multiple infections. But it isn’t. Limiting new infections at any point is never a bad thing.

There is no shame in changing course, returning to masking, isolating when sick, protecting yourself and your kids, “it’s mild” was what we all hoped for, we needed it to be, but it just wasn’t/isn’t the case.

If you’re one of the many who notices that that things are “off”, and you’re on the fence about masking/mitigations, get off that fence and protect yourself and your loved ones now.

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

People: COVlD levels are rising across the US, particularly high in the Gulf South and Pacific states
#MaskUp

[JWeiland @JPWeiland]

PJ.2.1 is a brand new, highly mutated variant (from a BA.2.86 Pirola base)

It's looking to me like it may have some speed 👀

Will continue to monitor this one. Most interesting variant in a bit.

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

The CDC is juking their maps, but here's how to unjuke the stats when Friday's data posts.

Look up your WVAL level on the CDC page (link next) & use the values in the red circle to recategorize it.

PMC will present competing maps & stats to shine light on their ethics crisis.

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

With the next PMC update, we will report COVlD levels side-by-side using the old and new CDC categories so it is crystal clear how the CDC is downplaying COVlD levels as many places experience waves.

[Keith @keetmuise]

Public health is not warning people about the damages Covid causes. Our governments are doing nothing to slow it down, and people are under the dangerously wrong impression that it’s not dangerous.

We need education, mitigation, and air filtration, and we need it now.

Schools reopening at the start of a wave is not a good mixture and with cases rising what harm could come from having less people sick?

#Backtoschool #school

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

COVlD levels are at their highest since approximately March 29th.

There is a 75% chance of reaching a "wave" threshold of at least 500,000 estimated new daily infections nationwide in early September. The uptick is atypically late in the year.
🧵(2/4)