BTC / ETH / SOL still trading within February’s range, so marking out February value should remain useful.
The 50WMA is also key here, currently capping price just above February’s highs.
The long game is often the least exciting path in trading and the one few have the patience to stay with. For me, the edge is knowing when aggression is earned, while spending most of the time taking singles, scratches, controlled wins and losses, with a small number of trades ultimately doing the heavy lifting.
Expectation heading into September: still leaning towards two-way price action rather than a clean sustained trend.
Jackson Hole adds another layer, with Warsh leaning hawkish on inflation, front-end yields pushing higher and the dollar catching a bid.
Not fully convinced we’re ready for a sustained directional move just yet.
Loosely held view and happy to be wrong - looking forward to being back at it again in September.
$BTC 2-week chart will print a buy signal in 4 days similar to the start of the 2023 bull run.
The bottom was in but there was an eventual pullback and a second buy signal.
Price pumped 166% after the second buy signal.
Pump ✅ ->
Pullback -> Acc
Pump -> umu
Pullback -> la
Pump -> ti
Pullback -> on
Liftoff 🚀
$BTC
For sustained bull-market conditions, I want to see the 50W curve higher with price accepting above it and developing a multi-week/month trend. By that point, the lower 12/21 structure should already be aligned.
Trading aside, my very high-timeframe view remains unchanged:
Own Bitcoin.
2027 → the debasement trade begins...?
LTF, I expect the coming months to offer a much better trading environment — events, volatility and two-way opportunity.
Support: Macro mid range - confluent with 12/25s
Resistance: 50w Moving average - give or take...
S&P 500 has closed below the trending dots for the third day in a row.
Retest upward trend line, bounce, and lose trend line?
No sell signal as of yet.
THIS IS NOT A FCKING BULL MARKET
I called $70K and now Bitcoin has ripped all the way to $78K
And suddenly everyone is sure the bear phase is over
Look under the surface though:
over $3.1 billion in shorts got wiped out
around $1.65 billion of that was Bitcoin alone
It was a massive liquidity squeeze
And the timing lined up perfectly
Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act again
The Treasury bumped up its long-term bond buybacks
risk assets exploded higher
That mix was the perfect setup to blow out shorts, spark FOMO and pull new longs in right near the highs
The setup I have been watching is still the same
$70K FVG -> $72K -> short squeeze -> FOMO -> distribution -> selloff
We are not waiting for the bull trap anymore, we might already be inside it
My downside path stays the same
$78K -> $67K -> $55K -> $48K to $44K
Turn notifs on, my next call might be the BIGGEST of the entire cycle
$BTC is 10 months into a bear market.
In the next couple of months, expecting leverage to get wiped in both directions, price makes a new low, and then a new bull run.
$BTC continues to be in a bear market as written 9.5 months ago.
This is my most bullish case for Bitcoin.
If stock market goes through a -30% correction, then sub $40K and $28K are on the table.
Buy the right dip, whatever level it becomes. 🤝
Recent positions and losses.
$BB: 5.79 current 9.76
$USAR: $17 current 30.32
$UUUU: cut this around BE
$DGXX: $8 avg now current 8.33
$HYPE: average has moved up a lot $42 current $73
$HIMS was cut after earnings at a loss
$Peng: $37 current 72. Sold $44 😭
In a few sub 1B caps but don’t really feel comfortable sharing those due to market cap.
And in a lot of others but mostly for very short term trades. Days. Week. . Like some high profile momentum plays. I probably only share 10% of what I do. Most I don’t share bc there’s just been big moves and think if you don’t know how to trade them the risk is quite high chasing late.
The goal is to buy 60K to look for 70K or the Fibonacci level 0.5 - 0.618, at that point, if we arrive, we should start looking for shorts with targets below 50K for October 2026, from there, we will only look above. $BTC
bitcoin:native
Nice weekly bullish SFP here on Bitcoin, holding the lows for now.
Looking like some relief is coming, if we clear $63.2k I could see this bounce towards the $70,000s.
Ultimately I think this ends in a lower high before new lows as I don't believe the bottom is in yet.
$BTC is entering it's final stage of the bear market.
Max pain to late shorts and bottom callers.
Every bear market, price has rested:
blue line ✅
yellow line
pink line
5th target box
I bought the right dip January 4, 2023 at $16,800. (green circle)
Earn in Pty Ltd at 25% base rate.
Consult to company $110k each under ABN = $220k for personal income
Leave the rest in company and buy $VHY, earn 5.5% yield annually (almost tax free) inside company, deploy into other ventures or reinvest to continue compounding.
If one leaves Aus, one can still consult to company.