Charlie Stephens

Green coffee trader 🇨🇴 🇺🇸 | Coffee farmer in 🇸🇻 | I’m a commodity market nerd | Also into geopolitics | Texas Tech 🌵

[DeCarleyTrading.com @carleygarner]

Suddenly, market analysis is as polarizing as politics. Differing opinions are insulted, not considered. We are living in a world of gray, but people expect black and white. They expect analysts to know where a market is going and in what time frame with accuracy. That isn’t how this works. I’d be happily retired if I could see the future. If someone tells you they know with absolute certainty what happens next in oil, they are lying. Here is my broad thought on oil. I believe we are topping, but it isn't an event; it is a process. If we are following the 2022 playbook, the highs are in. If we are following the 2020 blueprint in reverse, we would see a blow-off top heading into the May contract expiration in a few weeks... right around the time the cease-fire ends. This isn't a time to be swinging for the fence, in my view.

[Zack Voell @zackvoell]

"Crude is below $100 again"

"It's going lower"

"No it's not"

"Do you know anything about oil?"

"No do you"

"No"

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

@DudespostingWs Haha that’s awesome

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

KC nearby spread action is wild rn

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

Coffee Multi year support (dotted line) coming into play this morning…

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

Coffee farming is a small part of our business, and fermentations an even smaller portion but every year I look forward to tasting the results of our experimental lots. Most fail but usually 1-3 lots are incredible!

[DeCarleyTrading.com @carleygarner]

Make Commodities Great Again. We can start by delisting leveraged, inverse, and open ended commodity ETFs. These products are trying to shove mountains of cash into a coin purse. Its bad for retail traders and bad for the industry. #metals #silver #futures #commodities #gold

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

The screen is a bloodbath today

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

@rrhizome Lack of any bullish movement against the recent USD selloff is ugly for coffee

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

KC with an aggressive movement off of another 370 rejection. Both FP and cal spreads. Yikes.

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

Someone explain how closing your business tomorrow does anything to make the world a better place besides allow you to pretend like you did something?

[Melissa Chen @MsMelChen]

Let me get this straight:

> China buys oil from Russia
> India buys oil from Russia
> Germany buys gas from Russia

Yet core NATO allies - Canada and the UK - are actively deepening economic ties with China, while the EU has just concluded a landmark "mother of all deals" free trade agreement with India, slashing tariffs and opening markets on a massive scale.

These same nations demand unwavering American commitment to Article 5 against Russian aggression and billions in military aid while loudly accusing Trump of "demolishing the global order."

All the while, their own economic choices continue to sustain the Russian war machine through its largest customers. The moral posturing about defending Ukraine and upholding the rules-based order rings hollow as their actions so glaringly contradict their words.

The whole thing is a charade.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Everyone that called a top on precious metals Monday is feeling a bit of pain. Don't be a hero and think you are going to short a top, wait until the market confirms that move, and so far we have no real confirmation.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

They don’t tell you this but…

You can completely ignore AI + tech and just invest in Latin America and commodities.

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

@carleygarner Good take

[Visioner @visionergeo]

‼️‼️‼️🇨🇳 BREAKING - According to sources cited by Reuters and Bloomberg, reports are circulating that an attempted military coup took place in China aimed at overthrowing Xi Jinping. Two key generals have reportedly been detained, along with their families and up to 3,000 military personnel.

➡️ What is known at this stage:

📌 Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission) is suspected of organizing the coup against Xi Jinping.

📌 A shooting reportedly occurred between troops loyal to Zhang and the presidential security detail, resulting in several of Xi Jinping’s guards being wounded or killed.

📌 The plans of Zhang Youxia and the Chief of the Joint Staff, Liu Zhenli, allegedly included mobilizing troops to carry out a state coup against Xi Jinping.

📌 The intended slogan was: “Save the Party, Save the Nation.”

📌 The plan reportedly collapsed due to an alleged betrayal by individuals from within the inner circle.

📌 Both generals are under strict control and investigator supervision; along with them, their families and up to 3,000 military personnel have reportedly been detained.

📌 Following the exposure of the plan, heightened combat readiness was imposed, troop movements were halted, mobile phones were confiscated, and mass propaganda campaigns were launched.

📌 All these events coincided with Chinese military exercises simulating strikes on Taiwan and the destruction of its governing authorities.

🟦 While China’s Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China has officially confirmed the launch of an investigation into Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli (the official reason cited being “serious violations of discipline and law,” a phrase often associated with corruption), information regarding an actual “attempted military coup” and “shootings” remains unconfirmed at this stage. Such claims are primarily circulating on social media and through opposition media outlets. Western agencies (Reuters, Bloomberg) tend to assess this more as another round of Xi Jinping’s purge of the military elite.

See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

Colombian Peso gaining steady ground on the Dollar since the gap down on “Liberation Day”. Theoretically supportive feature for the coffee complex.

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

Probably long overdue. Now retail traders will be forced to the minis and micros with way less liquidity.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: CME Group will set gold, silver, platinum, and palladium margins as a percentage of notional value instead of a fixed dollar amount

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

When will they realize that redistribution from the top doesn’t work?

Colombia's leftist president is imposing the world's highest wealth tax after declaring an "economic emergency" https://t.co/WlfXYHZS6n

[Charlie Stephens @CharlieSte4536]

Southern Colombia parchment availability dwindling and FOB diffs firm. More parchment to come in March. Eyes on weather.