Checklist Investor

I would rather be vaguely right, than precisely wrong. - John Maynard Keynes

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

Einige kennen den Ansatz von Warren Buffett:

"For every dollar retained, make sure the company has created at least one dollar of market value."

Im folgendes kommt eine Berechnung, mit der ich dies für $AAPL, in den letzten Jahren, prüfe:

[William Green @WilliamGreen72]

After 5 years of toiling away to write #RicherWiserHappier, it’s thrilling to behold these 8 different editions of the book. At last count, it’s being translated into 22 languages, from Turkish to Estonian, Hebrew to Japanese! Thanks to everyone who’s helped it to take flight.

[Macro Dose @macro_dose]

Fed Powell Speech Summary ⚠️

1. The 25bps rate hike today was voted upon unanimously (bringing the Fed funds rate to 5%)

2. The Federal Reserve plan on continuing balance sheet reductions as planned at the current pace, despite adding over $300B to the balance sheet in the last week.

3. Powell still sees a soft landing as a possibility.

4. The Fed will protect deposits using the tools they have and depositors should have confidence their money is safe as the banking system is sound. (Yellen at the same time said they are no longer considering insuring all deposits)

5. The Fed thinks that credit (lending) tightening will occur as a result of the banking crisis; they have no idea how much. As a result, they may not have to raise rates as much/will take this into account when deliberating on future rate adjustments.

6. The Fed are not planning rate cuts this year and will NOT rule out further hikes if deemed necessary.

7. Unemployment is too low.

8. Inflation is too high, still committed to 2% target. Disinflation is, however, occuring.

9. The Fed considered pausing rates.

10. The US needs to see a period of slower than average growth.

Stocks and 2Y yield fell sharply into the close suggesting markets were not reassured by Powell's comments.

Given the ongoing banking crisis, it's fair to ask what Powell actually considers to be a soft landing.

[Macro Dose @macro_dose]

In the last 72 hours⚠️

1. The Fed announced they are increasing the frequency of standing USD swap lines from once per week to daily. This allows the involved central banks (🇪🇺ECB, 🇨🇭SNB, 🇯🇵BOJ, 🇬🇧BOE, 🇨🇦BOC) to borrow dollars in return for offering their own currency at an agreed exchange rate. Central banks using these swaps will then lend dollars to financial institutions within their own country. At an agreed date the two central banks will then re-exchange currencies, alongside interest, reversing the currency swap.

Usually, these swaps occur once per week. An increase of this kind is done occasionally to provide increased availability of liquidity to financial institutions in times of stress. This has only happened twice before - First during the 2008 GFC and second during the COVID crash in 2019.

2. Credit Suisse, 1 of 30 globally systemically important banks, merged with UBS in a deal forced through by regulators, without shareholder vote, wiping out billions of AT1 bonds that were written down to zero. This sparked fears that confidence in AT1 bonds would fall. They are regarded as higher in seniority than common stock yet they have been wiped out and those holding common stock have not.

3. This urged Bank of England to make a statement reinforcing the fact that AT1 in the UK would always take priority over common stock as AT1 bonds are higher in seniority in the corporate capital hierarchy.

4. It emerged that the possibility of guaranteeing ALL DEPOSITS in EVERY bank in the US is being explored. This is despite Janet Yellen explicitly stating that this would not be the case last week. If this happens it would mean $17T of deposits would be guaranteed. For context, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at peak before QT was less than $9T.

5. News broke that Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) lending last week amounted to $304B, almost double the amount of lending accessed via the Fed's discount window. FHLBs saw their biggest ever 1 day issuance in their 90+ years of existence last Monday. FHLBs were created in response to the Great Depression to provide liquidity to US financial institutions. They are touted as the lender of next-to-last resort (with last resort being the Fed's discount window).

6. First Republic Bank climbed almost 30% on Tuesday after closing at a record low on Monday, still down 80% in the last year. The troubled bank are currently exploring strategic options including a possible sale. According to Bloomberg the banks unrealised losses (unsold assets currently worth less than when purchased) are putting off buyers. Apparently, ways in which the government may offload some of these are being considered. This is despite the fact 11 of the largest banks in the US deposited $30B into the bank just last week.

The week has been WILD already

Don't forget, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision announcement will be at 2pm ET Wednesday.

If you enjoy these breakdowns then remember to LIKE, RETWEET and of course FOLLOW for more

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Why I Never Invest In Bank Shares by Terry Smith

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

@DagobertDuck_DD @aktienspeicher Da kenne ich mich nicht gut genug aus, aber wahrscheinlich würde das nur noch zu mehr Vertrauensverlust und Panik führen.

[Macro Dose @macro_dose]

Credit Suisse merger with UBS⚠️

1. $3.3B all share offer

2. Write down of $17.2B CS AT1 shares to zero⚠️

3. Swiss govt. will cover $9.7bln of potential CS losses imparted on UBS and a further $107.7B liquidity made available from SNB

4. Current CS staff to remain employed for now

5. CS investment bank to be significantly scaled down

6. There will not be a shareholder vote on the deal

Simply explained 👇

[Austin Lieberman @LiebermanAustin]

$OXY paid down $10.5B of debt in 2022, bringing outstanding principal down 37% and will have less than $2B of debt maturing in any single year through 2030.

"clear runway to focus on returning cash to shareholders"

[Leo @LeoNelissen]

📈S&P 500 (Earnings)

"“The events of the past week mean that credit availability is decreasing for a wide swath of the economy, which may be the catalyst that finally convinces market participants that earnings estimates are too high." - $MS

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

The overall trust into the bank was demolished over the years which now peaked with a huge outflow of deposits leading to a dangerous blow to the bank's financial stability.

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

I am currently digging a bit into Credit Suisse 10-K from last year and trying to figure out if one could have seen the difficulties coming.

I found this overview of their deposits (which funds part of the operations) and already in 2022 one could see a huge outflow of deposits.

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

https://t.co/cYf0pMnrV2 calculates a 10-Yr Median Net Interest Margin (NIM) for $CS of 1.3%.

For context: Bank of America $BAC has a 10-Yr Median NIM of 2.6%.

However, we can see that it wasn't the Net Interest Income that got the bank into trouble.

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

@russellgates_ I am not sure what you mean by that. Could you explain it to me?

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

@Atomschubser Yes Buffett receives a special dividend for his preferred stock which is mentioned in the 10-K of $OXY 👇

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

Are oil and gas stocks a good investment?

Since Warren Buffett is heavily investing in $OXY Occidental Petroleum, I have started my journey of learning more about the industry.

Here is the beginning of it:

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

From Howard Marks' podcast on his memos:

"By definition, you never know when it is the bottom."

"The time to start buying is not at the point when there not going to go down much more, it is when they get cheap."

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

I hope you liked this first introduction and will stay with me during my journey.

Leave a follow if you are not yet following and make sure to like and retweet the thread if it brought value to your day.

If I made a mistake, make sure to correct me, too. 😉

[Checklist Investor @ChecklistStocks]

$OXY is mainly focus on the E&P side of the industry.

In August 2019 they acquired Anadarko Petroleum for $57 billion.

Buffett helped finace the deal with $10 billion.
In Exchange he received 100,000 preferred shares.

They pay him a sweet dividend of 8%.