Sexy Sha Trades

Basic Investor | Basic Trader
Diver • Spearfishing • Surfer • Makeup Artist
Trade with oxygen.
Rest when the market needs it.

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

yes.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$SPX This drawdown is so eerily similar to last years.

If you want to use it as any blueprint, then we see a red day tomorrow followed by a green day on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, to close out the week.

Then the next big shoe drops.

Then you get the big Trump Taco tweet.

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@aleabitoreddit XFAB got downgraded by banks
This is crazy. i am buying

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@aleabitoreddit I saw this when it was like 3 dollars.
Did not enter as I see this like fraud company. HK based.
Backdoor are insider pushing this stock up.

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@aleabitoreddit will be positive for XFAB

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

$AMD just announced plans to invest up to £2 Billion in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 over the next 5 years

"to accelerate AI innovation and research and expand access to the compute resources needed for long-term economic growth and scientific leadership across the country."

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@cantonmeow Hello… BTC is in the bear market
Does not even show any strength

Wake up Cat😂😂😂

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection:

It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences?

If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others.

Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line.

$RPI is the perfect example:

1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist.
2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications.
3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI.
4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling.

Earnings comes out and I was right.

Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%).

So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess.

For stuff like $AXTI:

1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates"
2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing.
3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc.
4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS.
5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped).
6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls.
7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations.
8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc.

A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up.

With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing:

1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player.
2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here.
3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows).
4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts?
5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess.

_

I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life.

So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers

Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years.

Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels.

Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs.

Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid.

So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff.

Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

Tom Lee master of manipulation 😂😂😂

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@danielisdizzy Tom Lee is high on drugs lately

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

Your name are flying everywhere
And put many high priced subscriptions X bosses will get super jealous.
Most of them never get the right direction.

But you are good and able to withstand noise for 6 month Oct 2025 to March 2026
And a melt up that no one believes in it.

It was you who gave the right investment direction.

@aleabitoreddit

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@Mr_Derivatives

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@Mr_Derivatives check on longinvestor, someone warn the group about crypto and was silence in the group again. arrogant leadership of longinvestor

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@BeardoTrader haha... so now top?

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

free fall falling knife

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@Mr_Derivatives where is tom lee

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

Another call from Longinvestor from 2025

Well... why follow and pay such subscription fee to him?

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

ADA

Longinvestor say will fly since last year. catch falling knife.

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@CathieDWood buying more???

[Barchart @Barchart]

Bitcoin $BTC has fallen to its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023 📉 Historically, this has been a great buying opportunity 👀

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@fundstrat bottom?

[Barchart @Barchart]

Bitcoin $BTC has fallen to its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023 📉 Historically, this has been a great buying opportunity 👀

[Barchart @Barchart]

Bitcoin $BTC has fallen to its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023 📉 Historically, this has been a great buying opportunity 👀

[Sexy Sha Trades @ChingGwee]

@Mr_Derivatives Tom lee say 250K
Longinvestor expensive subscription say ETH 7000

None existed

Cannot blamed them. But they are expensive leaders