The Most Important Discussion No One's Having
Here's a clip from my podcast with Daniel (Lemonade's CEO) about the impact AI has had on his business, and the impact it's having on society.
Full pod by Saturday.
$LMND
This is Elon telling you the future.
A mass driver is basically a giant electromagnetic catapult. You build a track on the Moon, run current through superconducting coils, and yeet payloads into space at 5,300 mph. No fuel. No rocket engines. Just electricity.
Gerard O'Neill built the first working prototype at MIT in 1976. The tech is 50 years old. The economics are what changed.
Here's the math:
Falcon 9 costs $2,720/kg to low Earth orbit. Starship targets $100/kg once fully reusable. A lunar mass driver, powered by solar and running continuously with zero propellant? The Space Studies Institute estimated $1 per pound back in 1979. Updated for modern superconductors and solar efficiency, we're talking single digits per kilogram.
The Moon has over 1 million metric tons of helium-3 (worth $2,000 to $20 million per kg on Earth). Titanium. Aluminum. Iron. Silicon. Rare earths. Water ice at the poles.
So what's the timeline?
Artemis III lands astronauts at the lunar south pole around 2027-2028. SpaceX wants a permanent base by early 2030s. NASA has plans for a 100-kilowatt nuclear reactor on the surface by 2030. China is racing to build their own lunar station by 2035.
Once you have power and people, a mass driver is just construction. O'Neill's original designs called for a track a few kilometers long. A 160-meter track can reach escape velocity at high g-forces. Modern estimates suggest 12 tons of equipment landed over 20 years could bootstrap a self-expanding lunar industry.
The realistic timeline? First operational mass driver by 2045-2050. Maybe faster if the space race with China heats up.
And here's the part nobody's pricing:
A functioning lunar mass driver can throw 600,000 tons of material per year into cislunar space at near-zero marginal cost. That's O'Neill's 1979 estimate with conservative tech.
At that point, the supply curve for critical resources inverts. You stop asking "how much does it cost to lift this from Earth?" You start asking "can we mine it on the Moon?"
Mining on the Moon, with 1/6th gravity and no atmosphere, gets cheaper every year as robotics and AI improve. Launching from the Moon gets cheaper as solar panels improve. The cost curves only go one direction.
Elon's "money becomes irrelevant" framing sounds crazy until you think about what happens when energy and raw materials both approach zero marginal cost. Every economic system ever built assumes scarcity of stuff. A mass driver breaks that assumption for anything you can make from lunar regolith.
This is why Starship matters as a bootstrap mechanism. You need cheap Earth-to-Moon transport to build the infrastructure that eventually makes rockets obsolete for bulk cargo.
Rockets get you to the Moon. The Moon gets you everywhere else.
And Elon just told you that's the plan.
What are the odds that if the reserves are low, we embrace a new store of value like #Bitcoin?
Because if you think about it, #China has been stacking MASSIVE amounts of gold. Switching to a new standard like we did with Gold back in the day, would leave them behind. Just like when China stuck with silver and suffered for decades because of that choice.
The Internet of Money is happening.
The lego pieces are ready to be assembled for consumer utility.
1. Base -> helping blockchains scale
2. ENS -> identity
3. USDC -> stable medium of exchange
4. Smart Wallets -> reduce onboarding friction
etc
@PeterSchiff Most comments here think nothing would go wrong. But here the risk is building & dependent on price of BTC. All it takes is a black swan and all wrongs will be revealed. By then it would be another mega FTX collapsed equivalent opportunity to buy BTC cheap.
This rally is only the beginning and especially so for Crypto. The returns will far exceed traditional equity and S&P500, as there is so much to build and for adoption in the space. World is changing and digitalizing. #btc#tsla Shaping the future.