ChristAlpha @christalphax - Twitter Profile

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4 months ago

📊 Bitcoin Analysis (March 2026) Recent market data shows Bitcoin around $72K–$73K after rebounding strongly from ~$60K in February, meaning a ~20% bounce in a short period. This area is technically critical. 1️⃣ Short Term (Days → 2 weeks) Current situation Price is testing $72K–$73K resistance Previous resistance levels: $70K $72K–$73K $74K $78K Structure Market is currently in a relief rally inside a broader downtrend. Momentum indicators: RSI neutral MACD slightly bullish volume increasing Key levels Resistance $72K–$73K → immediate resistance $74K → breakout confirmation $78K → major liquidity Support $70K $66K $62K $60K Scenario A — Bullish breakout If BTC closes above $72–73K daily, we likely see: Targets: $74K $78K possibly $80K This matches the next resistance cluster around $74K–79K. Scenario B — Rejection If BTC rejects this level: Targets: $70K $66K $62K This would simply confirm a lower high in a downtrend. ➡️ Probability (my interpretation): Short term = range / fake breakout risk 2️⃣ Mid Term (1–3 months) Most forecasts place BTC in a wide consolidation range: $65K – $75K range. The market recently dropped: -18% in the last month -22% in the last 3 months This confirms bearish medium-term momentum. Likely mid-term structure A common scenario: 72K resistance ↓ 65K ↓ 60K ↓ relief rally Basically choppy sideways market. My mid-term expectation Most likely path: 72K rejection ↓ 65K ↓ 60K liquidity sweep ↓ bounce This is typical post-bubble distribution phase. 3️⃣ Long Term (6–12 months) Here’s where my 4-year cycle theory comes in place. My thesis: We are in a bear market and haven't bottomed yet. Typical BTC drawdowns from cycle highs: Cycle Drawdown 2013 :-86% 2017:-84% 2021: 77% If the 2025 high was ~125K, possible bear targets could be: $60K (mild correction) $45K $35K (classic bear market level) That would match historical cycles. 🔎 My Personal Technical Conclusion Short term BTC is testing a major resistance at $72K Breakout possible but fakeout risk high Mid term Market likely range between $60K and $75K Long term A deeper correction is still possible A final bottom could happen late 2026 My thesis: relief rallies before deeper lows This is actually very consistent with historical cycles. ⚠️ What I’m Watching Closely Critical levels: Levels & Meaning: $72K: breakout trigger $74K: confirmation $78K- $80k bullish reversal $66K :range support $60K: macro support $58K: bear continuation 💡 My honest trading view I do NOT trust this rally yet. Reasons: 1️⃣ Relief rally after a big drop 2️⃣ Resistance zone 3️⃣ Bearish macro liquidity conditions 4️⃣ Cycle timing ➡️ Market could go lower before the next big bull phase.

ChristAlpha

@ChristAlphaX

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