Circle Back Pat

unapologetic globalist (except for china, screw those scumbags)

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@zerohedge So divorced. So fired. He’s turning into a country music song.

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@leglock2468 @treadmillhorse Don’t ask questions that you don’t want the answer to.

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@zerohedge Doesn’t the “I” in IPO mean “initial”?

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@Wolfy09024080 @zerohedge It sells… they just have to keep lowering the price in order to do so.

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@ClearedAsFiled @HedgeFundFomo (0.041-0.041)^x still equals zero, quant.

[Circle Back Pat @CircleBackPat]

@HiawathaJones @asymmetricinfo The war would become between AI powered drones battling for supremacy over the Strait of Taiwan. China would have a geographic advantage because the USA has to transport drones to the area (presumably an air base on Taiwan soil, but dedicated naval carriers would be cool).

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@Sublime_Knight @mugtang The four team playoff was 100% at-large, and the G6 foiled it on antitrust grounds.

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@zerohedge It’s not the affair, it’s the evidence that she was an intermediary to knowingly ship embargoed chips to China.

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As we learned last week, it takes Wall Street 24 hours to fully process a Black Swan event.

$NVDA going down today requires no thought. The rest of the semiconductors will get slammed tomorrow.

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I wish Eric Swalwell was still around to hammer Jensen Huang about responsibility.

[Jarvis @jarvis_best]

That pretty girl in your DMs on X: AI

Pretty girl on Facebook: multilevel marketer

Pretty girl at the gym: prostitute

Pretty girl at the office: Chicom spy

Pretty girl in your militia: Fed

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@zerohedge It’s a banner day for the TACO traders

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@HedgeFundFomo It’s going to be a Big Black Monday Crash. Google “Hardcore BBC Today” for more details.

[Circle Back Pat @CircleBackPat]

This was written on 5/13 when $NVDA was $235/share. Was $186 at close on Friday (-20%) and now trading at $177 pre-market (-25%).

[Culper @CulperResearch]

NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem. Please see our full report and disclosures now available on our website, link in bio.

[Jukan @jukan05]

Taiwanese semiconductor analyst Andrew Lu’s take on the recent scandal involving Jensen Huang:

Why the US Seized on the Scandal to Draw Its Sword: Three Strategic Objectives

The purpose of this scandal is by no means to expose an affair. It is to force through three critical objectives that had made no headway in the tech war between the US and China because Jensen Huang opposed them.

The first cut: Completely destroy the legitimacy of Jensen Huang's lobbying against sanctions in Washington

Over the past two years, the loudest and most influential business leader in Silicon Valley opposing a total ban on chip exports to China has been Jensen Huang. He has told the White House the same thing all along: "Cede the Chinese market to Huawei, and the only one that ends up dead is the American tech industry."

But the moment US intelligence labels the woman named as Huang's affair partner "a spy working for China's Ministry of State Security who sought to steer the US toward easing its chip controls," every bit of lobbying he has done for looser controls takes on an entirely different political meaning. It becomes a national security matter, raising the possibility that a foreign spy used a secret relationship to exert influence.

Huang can no longer say a single word in defense of the Chinese market before Congress or the White House. If he does, he will be branded as someone who "fell for an intelligence operation and still hasn't come to his senses."

The second cut: Reverse the H200 export approvals for China and sever the link between Chinese shell companies and Southeast Asian smuggling networks

Look at the timing of the two reports.

On November 8, the very day the Jensen Huang scandal broke, The New York Times published an investigation for which its reporters went in person to dozens of Chinese companies that the US Commerce Department had approved to handle Nvidia's H200 chips. New Matrix in Beijing was one of them. According to the report, the registered addresses of companies approved to buy the chips turned out to be empty "ghost offices," and some of the companies had close ties to entities on US sanctions lists and to firms under contract with the Chinese military.

One exposé says Nvidia's CEO was having an affair with a female spy from Megaspeed, the Singapore company that handled the chip smuggling. The other says the Chinese companies Commerce approved to buy H200s are nothing but shell companies trading on behalf of the Chinese military. The aim of these two reports is clear. They are meant to pressure the Trump administration and the Commerce Department into fully revoking or freezing H200 export approvals for China and, going further, to force a sweeping overhaul of the loophole that let chips be diverted through data centers run by third parties in Singapore and elsewhere in Southeast Asia.

The third cut: Put Nvidia on a national security leash through congressional oversight and an independent investigation

As the world's largest company by market cap and the dominant force in AI, Nvidia has until now enjoyed broad autonomy in how it runs its business. But in the wake of this incident, the three congressional committees responsible for China, foreign affairs, and intelligence have begun examining Nvidia's internal security measures directly. They have even pressured Nvidia's board into forming an independent investigation committee to look into the company's own founder and CEO.

In effect, Washington's national security establishment has planted a watchdog right inside Nvidia's board. From now on, the goal is to make sure that everything, down to where each and every one of Nvidia's high performance chips ends up, conforms strictly to US national security strategy. It also means there is no more room for skirting the edge of the rules or releasing chips with specs specially tailored to regulatory thresholds.

Conclusion

"The scandal was a detonator set off right on cue. The real goal was to plug the holes chips were leaking through."

Jensen Huang made the fatal mistake of letting his guard down in his private life and personal relationships. In the end, he fell into a honey trap, the textbook tactic of intelligence warfare, and was compromised. America's national security and intelligence agencies ruthlessly exploited the weakness his private life had exposed. As a result, they solved three thorny problems in a single stroke: Nvidia's lobbying at the White House to ease restrictions on China, the flow of H200 chips into Chinese shell companies, and smuggling routed through Singapore.

The closed congressional hearing set for November 18 will be the decisive turning point at which the US moves in earnest to tighten its sanctions on China's AI compute even further.

[Circle Back Pat @CircleBackPat]

@BD777Distillery @zerohedge General Tso’s, Kung Pao, or Sweet & Sour?

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@liquidtrading Beware of big moves on low volume

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@KevinHornePSU Wisconsin-Madison