Citrini

Thematic Cross-Asset Investor.

[Citrini @citrini]

Never really got to explain my reasoning for my $SIVB short - but suffice it to say now if you marked their holdings to market their book value would be negative

[Citrini @citrini]

can we take back the term “investor” from the VCs? i don’t think they have earned the right to use it tbh

[Citrini @citrini]

Patriots in control.

[Citrini @citrini]

my priorities have pretty much shifted as of today. i am moving away from pushing the envelope risk wise and towards protecting & preserving this year’s profits.

i have been 70%+ net long for more than two years and 100%+ net long for the majority. this is not the “i’m bearish now” post.

this is just me sharing that im willing to get ripped off likely overpaying for index puts that will go to zero. i’m willing to pay up for downside protection right now. and if you’re doing really well, you should be too.

we’re putting jet fuel in the tank and stepping on the gas - either we go really f**king fast or the engine blows up. either way, I am down to pay a bit extra for the car insurance before we find out.

the last red sweep we had coincided with SPY going up 27% over the next 12 months. IWM gained 35% from nov ‘16 to nov ‘17.

i don’t know if that repeats itself but if I think that beta alone can have me up +30% from here in just a year from now, well…

bet your ass I’m willing to give up more than a little of that. as long as it means I don’t end up shaken out of a massive trend for some stupid little macro or earnings overreaction. as long as I have the capital to buy the dip when the long side becomes so crowded that any incrementally not great news is likely to be perceived as a massive negative catalyst…i can content myself with giving up quite a bit of it.

the second pic below shows my performance as I gave up -5.6% vs SPY from May to July, overpaying for hedges that became worthless.

i’d do the same thing over again because when they didn’t go to zero, they & other negative theta/positive vega macro trades were the only reason I was able to buy the dip aggressively in my highest conviction areas like VRT and medtech/healthcare on august 5th. i still ended up selling down some AI exposure, but not nearly as much as I would have if I didn’t have some cover.

did it suck to be down in Q2 while mega cap tech ripped despite being bullish on AI myself? yeah. of course it did.

but it paid off because i didn’t let myself get caught offsides. instead, i got to bust out the shopping list on names in a long term thematic (healthcare’s cyclical inflection) basket that are up 39% collectively since.

unless you’re content to buy and not look at the screen again for a decade, part of a long term view is making sure you have the psychological wherewithal to withstand underperformance despite conviction when the cause is unrelated to your thesis.

i’ll take sideways for 6 weeks while everything rips 10% over down 20% when everything drops all day, everyday. especially if it means I get to be the bidder of last resort when there’s a firesale in obviously inflecting names.

all I’m saying is: if you’re killing it right now, it is probably time. it’s time to hedge yourself so you are comfortable enough to ride late cycle beta (which is, subjectively speaking, the best beta).

give up some of it proactively so you don’t give up a lot of it reactively.

don’t be the guy that panic sold SPX 3200 Sep-Oct 2020 and never got the chance to get back in at those prices. don’t be the guy that spends the rest of the cycle looking for reasons to be correct in hindsight while everything he once owned makes new all time highs.

beta that doesn’t go down as much as the market during drawdowns IS alpha.

[Citrini @citrini]

Citrini has become one with the machine, apparently.

[Citrini @citrini]

eventual sci-fi arbiter of AI justice: “and what was your contribution to AI”

me: “i helped teach it how to trade sofr spreads”

“summary execution. next”

[Citrini @citrini]

seeing nearly every name I own go up 4-10% in a week:

[Citrini @citrini]

no but fr can we chill out my nerves are shot

[Citrini @citrini]

Just went back to look at $MCB as I am looking at potential crypto deregulation winners & recalled they’d provided debit cards for crypto.

Surprise, surprise - the short thesis that tried to capitalize on the banking panic doesn’t even exist anymore.

Careful who you listen to.

[Citrini @citrini]

I was seeing the matrix on July 28th I guess

[Citrini @citrini]

Meta RayBan Sunglasses:

[Citrini @citrini]

SPRY +4.5% (signs agreement with ALK to Commercialize neffy in Europe, Canada and Other Geographies Outside the United States)

The only bear case I’ve heard on this is that another player is going to displace them. Global commercialization makes that unlikely.

[Citrini @citrini]

d

[Citrini @citrini]

is there any way I could have been more explicit about when I sold this stock lol

[Citrini @citrini]

yeah this is basically the thesis

[Citrini @citrini]

anon do you really want to be short “american super conductor” against “taiwan semi conductor” into a trump presidency?

[Citrini @citrini]

if the government is going to be sad about the yield curve acting in ways they don’t like why don’t they just put a cap on the long end rates?

like if they could somehow, idk, control the yield curve

[Citrini @citrini]

Read CitriniResearch’s latest Single Name Equity Thesis here:

https://t.co/2AL0kMHn90

[Citrini @citrini]

now THAT was a good week