PW

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@Vmaxpax Surprised stock reaction so muted after hours.

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@mc_khristina @Josephcantfly @the_life_of_mac Same situation, I think a lot of the 0 available you see is on IBKR.

[Bussin Science Investor @BussinBiotech]

$LPTH Near term catalysts that management has explicitly spoken about/guided to:
https://t.co/qejDpWgWEJ

-Full G5 blackdiamond thermal camera redesign expected by autumn (see comments below why this redesign matters)

-NGSRI down selection by October 1st (As per the investor deck and knowledge that Fiscal year 2027 for the Department of Defense begins on October 1, 2026)

-Award for a new "airborne system" expected by end of the summer or early autumn (see comments below on why this award matters)

-Border tower camera orders: management did not provide a specific timeframe but did state during the May 7 ER that "we were expecting already some significant orders to be released, but it seems DHS has not released the funding yet" .... given the recent announcements from ASTC, Anduril, Teledyne Flir, etc... on now having received DHS funding for more border towers I fully expect that lightpath will announce having received new large camera orders anytime in the coming months.

-Navy SPEIR: During the May 7 ER management stated that "Navy Spear is on schedule, and we expect some new orders with the new federal budget now being released."

Again, the above is just near term big ticket items that management has spoken about, not all encompassing. A good chunk of these seem to be clustered around the late summer and autumn timeframe.

[Mike @BlackScholesMan]

100% of my $ASTS shares are now lent out short and it is flat on the year. In the mean time:
1) 4 sats in orbit YTD
2) Demonstrated capability to make 5-6 a month
3) Some sort of increased launch cadence with SpaceX
4) Japan deal swirling
5) Optionality of ULA being added to the mix

I'm not selling anything. This is like my tenth draw down in 4 years.

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@JeffGabel Jeff how do you envision LADOS competing with or working with Lattice? Thanks in advance.

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@thewatsonview Did you see open interest yesterday?

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@respeculator While aluminum has captured margins here, are you interested in the bauxite side at these levels? Curious if Guinea's supply elasticity was surprising, and/or changed your outlook long term.

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@AlexfromBabylon Covered calls here all day.

[Watson @thewatsonview]

Update on Minehub $MHUB.V . Rothschild's fund have since filed this morning and taken ownership in Minehub to 10.59%.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@pennycheck I like this idea a lot. Reminds me a lot of GE.

[Todd Hannigan @todd_hannigan]

The Future of Titanium

⸻

1 | A Metal Still Trapped in a 1940s Flow-Sheet

Titanium is one of the most capable metals in modern engineering. Pound for pound, it’s stronger than steel and aluminum, yet resistant to corrosion in ways that make stainless steel look vulnerable. It’s biocompatible, immune to saltwater, and only melts at 1,670°C. Yet despite these extraordinary properties, titanium remains a niche material - expensive, difficult to process, and often restricted to high-performance aerospace, military, and medical applications.

The reason isn’t the metal. It’s the high-cost and low yield manufacturing process.

Since the 1940s, nearly all commercial titanium has been produced using the Kroll process - a multi-step, high-temperature, high-cost method that feels more like artisanal alchemy than modern metallurgy. It starts with titanium ore, usually rutile, which is chlorinated at high temperatures to form titanium tetrachloride (TiCl4). This is then reduced with molten magnesium to produce titanium sponge. The titanium sponge is crushed, pressed, and melted - not once, but often three times - under vacuum to produce large titanium ingots. Only then does the journey begin to forge, roll, machine and finish the final titanium part.

Each step requires its own high-cost equipment, large energy inputs, and quality controls. The supply chain is not just complex and long - it’s fragile. And by the time a finished titanium part emerges, most of the original titanium is gone through yield losses. Boeing’s internal data, supported by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, shows that on a modern airframe like the 787, up to 90% of the titanium purchased is lost as machining swarf. Half the cost of the final titanium part, in many cases, is not the metal itself but what it took to manufacture it into a final part.

Even if titanium sponge were free, titanium parts would still be expensive.

⸻

2 | A Process Designed for Steel, Ill-suited for Titanium

The current titanium production chain didn’t evolve in a vacuum. It borrowed heavily from the mid-century playbook of the steel industry. The rolling mills, forging protocols, and even machining standards were adapted from carbon and stainless steel production. But titanium isn’t steel. It’s much harder to deform, much more sensitive to oxygen contamination, and responds poorly to the multiple reheating cycles typical in hot-working lines.

Steel can be forged in massive passes with continuous throughput. Titanium must be shaped slowly, reheated often, and treated with care. It doesn’t like to flow. That resistance to movement - so useful in its final form - makes it a high-cost nightmare in manufacture. The Kroll process’s affinity to oxygen also makes it very difficult to recycle titanium scrap.

The net result is a production system that is highly capital intensive, low-yield yield, and difficult to scale. One that has limited the growth in titanium market.

⸻

3 | Enter IperionX: Inverting the Titanium Process

IperionX, a U.S.-based advanced materials company, believes that the fundamental problem with titanium isn’t the metal. It’s the production method.

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@todd_hannigan @Arkasiraee Todd, at what scale do you think this needs to be demonstrated for this ‘ Bessemer moment’ to occur? 1400 or 10000 tpa or later? Any plans to license GenX once proven?

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

It’s not just about the % of times you are right, but the magnitude of outcome. $ABXXF CEO breaks it down simply here. Great r/r.

Additional optionality. Shareholder conscious.

Happy to be along for the ride.

[Josh Crumb 🆔++ @JoshCrumb]

100% agree. That’s why this long-short debate is the perfect form of price discovery for us right now:

If we can’t onboard, build OI, we’re probably 2x overvalued (prediction markets would buy our infrastructure alone right now for half our market cap or more).

If we can, in the most profitable and sticky markets, we’re only 20% valued (a skewed coin as I’ve been saying).

I will build OI over the next 5years and get that 5x (pre-tech, the free call option), with a 2% cost of dilution per year. Not worried in the least.

And finally, in the S/D for shares, I also know that I have more people coming in to buy the limited shares (for that weighted coin toss) than the shorts have supply to borrow, or longs have for sale. ..So yeah, every new long, or new short in the book betters my 2027 cost of capital. And both have been glorious additions during these #MayDays

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@asklivermore Great picks, own most, check out IPX also!

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@sjahmed08 @Vmaxpax Hiive just had a fund offering for preferred shares but now closed. Worth watching if interested.

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@peonyKingOF @insane_analyst Check out comments at the end of his most recent article.

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@TraderPamplona Hedges rolling off Q2 and Q3, physical price has to be significant premium over paper. The debt leverage added beta. The loan extensions seem to be a formality with Brent this high.

[PW @CleanMtnAir]

@TraderPamplona + some long dated calls in $KOS :) seems like a good stack.