Matt Simpson

Market Analyst @StoneX_official covering forex, indices, gold and oil during the Asian session for @forexcom and @CityIndex. No DM's.

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Yen traders seem to be doing the work of the MOF for them - with another spike lower from the 160 handle on USD/JPY.

With a clear lack of volatilty on the daily chart, do the MOF even have to intervene? Markets seem cautious for now and self correcting to a point.

But a strong set of NFP figures could complicate things.

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

For now, momentum points higher on the daily chart as we head into Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Given the backdrop of shaky ceasefires and persistent inflationary pressures, I suspect the US dollar could remain bid into NFP, with traders favouring dips. Given that the jobs report has surprised to the upside over the past couple of months despite elevated inflation pressures, there is no guarantee it will miss expectations this time either.

However, a weak set of NFP figures could topple the dollar as traders price out concerns over further Fed hikes, and that could help print a lower high beneath 100.50.

US Dollar Outlook: USD Bulls Flex into NFP, AUD and NZD Slide https://t.co/GAKmMKzZ91

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Gold's Bounce Faces Seasonal Headwinds https://t.co/Sdcz9IibnL via @YouTube

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

@Kekius_Sage Can we get FrAIs with that?

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

@Sulla7890 @PolitlcsUK Just outright bad policing

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

I see the potential for gold to bounce over the near term, and it made a decent attempt into Friday's close with a 2-day low-to-high range of 5.3%.

But when I look at futures and options traders, my expectations for a runaway rally are brought back in line.

Gold Outlook: Bulls Eye Rebound, Though Futures Exposure Remains Weak https://t.co/70PVABLArW

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Maybe watch the footage?

Police arrested the only person on the scene who was unable to move, as he was collapsed on the floor when they arrived.

Police ignored his claims he'd been stabbed, handcuffed him and read him his rights while he passed away.

The old protocol of police ABCs were non existent.
- Acept nothing
- Beleive nobody
- Check everything

So by your logic, a bank robber can just point to a random when the police turn up?

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

GBP/AUD held support, probing trend resistance.

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Interesting setup may be playing out on EUR/AUD. Similar to GBP/AUD - which rebounded yesterday - so maybe a step behind?

Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD https://t.co/DUMh49FU1L

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Interesting setup may be playing out on EUR/AUD. Similar to GBP/AUD - which rebounded yesterday - so maybe a step behind?

Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD https://t.co/DUMh49FU1L

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

It has been over a month since the MOF first intervened, sending USD/JPY down around 500 pips within an hour. USD/JPY has recouped most of its losses, yet futures traders have continued to pile into yen shorts.

Meh. Probably nothing...

FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Bulls Return, Yen Bears Tease MOF https://t.co/1uTp8anM1y

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Once again, the Australian dollar finds itself caught between opposing forces from the Middle East and interest rate expectations, although the drivers have flipped. Hopes of de-escalation in the conflict remain alive, while expectations for further RBA rate hikes have softened.

That combination could result in choppy trade with an upside bias this week. Though resistance and downside risks loom.

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Extends Gains, But Pullback Risks Remain https://t.co/kWOcIwnqkE

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Only 11% of companies in Australia increased costs due to rising fuel prices. Or 17% if we include fuel surcharges.

48% absorbed the costs (for now).

Still, could have been worse.

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Ultimately, how high gold could bounce - assuming it does at all, will be traced back to the latest attempts at peace via the US dollar.

And as compelling the bullish hammer around the 200-day MAs are, options traders seem cautious.

Gold Outlook: Peace Hopes Support Gold, Options Market Signals Caution https://t.co/afHgDFZKwq

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

"...to ensure the futures is good" - for who, exactly? All of us?

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Last trading day of the month, so price action can be fickle. Still, with a bearish engulfing day at its 200-day EMA on Thursday, the overnight rise on SPI 200 could make it tempting for ASX 20 bears to fade into resistance.

ASX 200 Outlook: SPI Futures Rise, But Resistance Looms Over Rally https://t.co/vGxivDY8jq

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Aussie Dollar Reversal Underway? AUD/USD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD Analysis https://t.co/Gub3zqP0nZ

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Bears are pondering a cheeky short on Dow Jones futures, given its false break of a record high, respect of resistance - all while the mighty Nasdaq pauses for breath.

Nasdaq 100 Rally Pauses, Dow Jones Looks Vulnerable to Wall Street Bears https://t.co/no8SchGcis

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

We're finally seeing the broader Aussie reversal gather pace, with AUD/USD forming a potential bear flag after breaking lower from a bearish reversal pattern, AUD/NZD suffering its worst day in nine years, while GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD rebound from their lows.

AUD/USD Bear Case Builds as AUD/NZD Signals Top, GBP/AUD Eyes Rebound https://t.co/xz5QiVRpEg

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

RBNZ held their OCR as expected, though NZD/USD has been given a nice bump with the hawkish statement - notably the line "the OCR will most likely need to increase sooner and by more than envisaged..."

While momentum points higher for now, I suspect the US dollar has more strength up its sleeve and bears could be seeking to fade into NZD resistance levels.