Clinaptis Research

Independent biopharma research

Clinical evidence • Drug development • Valuation

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Clinical trials • Drug development • Healthcare investing

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Full note & XBI risk map here:
https://t.co/lnz3mBRrDZ

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Where bears are still building in XBI. 🧵

Most short-interest screens rank stocks by current short interest.

But the more useful question is:

Where are shorts still adding?

Level ≠ flow.

What stood out from the June 30 FINRA settlement across the $1-5B $XBI biotech universe:

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

We aren’t building another “most shorted” leaderboard.

The Clinaptis Monthly Biotech Short Interest Monitor is a recurring framework for tracking how bearish positioning evolves around clinical and commercial catalysts.

👇 Full June 30 report below.

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

>$27B for Orforglipron is pure science fiction. Even $ABBV's Humira did $22Bish at its peak. In a crowded oral market, even with $LLY's execution, $7.5-$9B is our bull case. Expect estimates to keep getting chopped as we approach YE26.

[Eric Topol @EricTopol]

Stellar review of the recent and remarkable advances vs Alzheimer's disease (AD).
Towards "a future where AD is not only treatable but also preventable."
@CellCellPress
https://t.co/p3hbqkDrtF

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Full deep dive at the end of the thread 👇

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Cobenfy (KarXT) proved muscarinic agonism works 🧠 First new schizophrenia mechanism in 30 yrs.
MapLight ($MPLT ) doesn't need to de-risk the mechn.
It needs to prove its fixed-dose combo is actually better. Ph2 ZEPHYR reads out in August 📅
Here's the institutional bet 🧵👇

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Our base case on ML-007C-MA:

✅ Efficacy in-line with Cobenfy (PANSS)
⚠️ Tolerability edge — sound, but unproven at scale If safety holds, it's not just a schizophrenia story—it reads straight into their Alzheimer’s psychosis asset.

🎯 Full note 👇
https://t.co/wg9eFqeDyt

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Early Phase 1 data looks immaculate.
Too immaculate? 🤔
❌ 0% vomiting
❌ 0% constipation
❌ 0% anticholinergic events

But that’s 40 healthy volunteers over short dosing windows. Psychotic patients in an acute exacerbation are a completely different safety profile. 📊

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Atacicept Approved. Called it. $VERA
Stock up 8% intraday. Flat-ish 5D -2%.

Label: no UPCR threshold. Broader than expected.
Weekly vs. monthly still the commercial headwind.

Q3 eGFR is the only number that matters now.

🔗 https://t.co/4lR687ljk6
$NVS $OTSUKA #IgAN

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

1. IgAN now has five approved therapies spanning four different mechanisms.

Yet most reduce proteinuria by roughly 40-50%.

The question is no longer who reduces proteinuria most.

It’s who leaves the least disease behind.

🧵

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Full reconstruction — dose selection, APTT thresholds, and probability-weighted valuation for both trials:
🔗 https://t.co/sMX0rQS43w

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Milvexian ($BMY / $JNJ ): one failed Ph3 shifted the narrative toward caution.
ACS was always the low-expectation trial — the real value sits in Stroke and AF, both still ongoing.
Readout: YE2026.
Here's why they should be valued separately 🧵

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

Stroke is the higher-confidence clinical call (~65-70% POS, HR ~0.69-0.74).
AF is the higher-value commercial call, lower confidence (~55-60% POS) — our AF HR estimate is in the full note.
👇

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

🔗 Full note: https://t.co/UHgnwu78nx

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

$AMLX Phase 3 PBH readout is being treated as a binary event in 3Q26.

The market is focused on the wrong uncertainty - so reconstructed LUCIDITY using three independent statistical frameworks,

it's not n=78 sample size, but how much the Ph2 effect compresses in Ph3 of PBH

🧵

[Clinaptis Research @Clinaptis]

At today’s EV, AMLX pricing ~ 11K peak treated pts & underwrites the diagnosed population, not the diagnosable one.

📈 ~34% upside in the base case.

🚀 ~150% upside if approval expands diagnosis beyond today’s recognized PBH pop'n.

So, approval isn’t the end of the thesis!

👇