Pretty cool to see I’m now ranked #479 overall on @juice_reel across all sports (Top 3%) and even cooler to be sitting at #90 for college football (Top 1%).
If you want to follow my plays, I post everything on Juice Reel with the exact lines and odds I get.
There’s a free 7-day trial, then just $4.99/month if you want to stick around.
Come check it out 👇
https://t.co/xvxHoAThpV
Pretty cool to see I’m now ranked #479 overall on @juice_reel across all sports (Top 3%) and even cooler to be sitting at #90 for college football (Top 1%).
If you want to follow my plays, I post everything on Juice Reel with the exact lines and odds I get.
There’s a free 7-day trial, then just $4.99/month if you want to stick around.
Come check it out 👇
https://t.co/xvxHoAThpV
The NBA and prominent sportsbooks have agreed to ban multiple types of bets, per me and @DavidPurdum, such as:
- Parlay bets involving the under on the same player's statistics
- "First of" market; examples: winner of opening tip, an individual's specific shot, rebound, assist, steal
- Under bets on players expected to play less than 12 minutes a game
If you make a 8-9 leg SGP on one game, you're not allowed to complain when you fall 1 leg short
Let's skip the discussion about correlation nerfing your odds deep into the -EV category on certain books (cough* FD)
But let's dive deeper into the fact that these SGPs are full of legs that are overtly -EV as well. You can compound your Expected Value by taking multiple EV legs, sure. But the vast majority are taking the -200, -300 types of builders cause they're "safer"
Yeah sure 7+ Keon receptions is amazing EV at +1300 Bally vs +680 FD but you never see that leg included. No, you see the 3+ rec instead at -186 Bally compared to -180 Fanduel instead
There is no such thing as a safe leg, -200 Bijan didn't hit, -420 Oregon didn't hit, -340 LSU didn't hit
Gathering 90% hit rate legs just to get a bigger payout is already a losing game to begin with. The price you're sacrificing is so often overlooked these days
Question for the anti-CLV'ers
If CLV did not matter, explain how I can sell my Rams positions tonight for 3.51% ROI before the game starts?
CLV does not mean automatic win, it means a small quantifiable edge has been secured, and stacking small edges over time should be profitable (will be if sample is large enough to mitigate variance).
** The most common response is - it does in large sample sizes but does not in single games. Thats inherently illogical. The sum total of large is the individual impact of all the small (as with any life process/decision).. i.e. Losing weight happens one meal at a time of making the small change in food choices.
He went 15 for 15 picking every NFL winner.
Then FanDuel offered him $2,277 to walk away from $6,705.
He took it. The Falcons won.
Here's why that button exists 👇 https://t.co/jTZEQDoLJm
Rough month so far.
Still beating the close on 77.7% of bets and by solid margins.
Results just haven’t followed a week in. Keep getting good numbers and let it play out. #onward
Big Saturday card today. Lot of plays on the board and really like the CLV we’ve gotten so far.
Already +15.1u to start October.
Good luck today everyone 🤝