STRC down to $82.6 today. Here's my read:
1. Strategy is fine. If everything stays as is, they can pay STRC dividends for 32 years. If BTC appreciates at ~2% CAGR, they can pay dividends indefinitely.
2. Why the sell-off? This appears to be a liquidation cascade.
Over the last 6 months, the narrative became that STRC volatility was reducing, and price began to spend all its time in $99-100 range.
This invites leverage. If you expect the price to always be north of $95, you can take on 20x leverage with your portfolio to buy more STRC and dramatically increase the yield on your portfolio.
This works great, until it doesn't.
STRC is designed as a free-market asset. When attention shifted to SATA and STRC price flagged, it may have raised the attention of opportunistic short-selling hedge funds.
By shorting aggressively, they could push the price down and start triggering margin calls and liquidations from folks who aggressively levered up their STRC positions.
The price action today is a clear liquidation cascade, rapidly pushing prices lower, in turn triggering additional liquidations.
3.
What happens now? The market will heal itself.
Opportunistic hedge funds will recognize that this is a firesale and the fundamentals are unchanged for STRC and step in as buyers. Shorts will close, becoming buyers. Individuals are getting a tremendous entry price for long-term holding STRC shares.
Buyers at this level will get ~13.7% effective yield. If STRC trades back to $100 and they sell, they get an easy +18% return.
4.
What will Strategy do?
Strategy will likely increase the dividend rate on June 30 - maybe to 11.75% but possibly to 12%. Buyers at the current price level then would get 14.2% effective yield from that point forward.
Strategy may also step in to buy STRC shares back. They could do this by issuing new shares of MSTR (currently at 1.14 mNAV) or by taking on traditional debt and deploying those funds to buy discounted STRC shares on the market.
If/when STRC trades back to $100, Strategy could then re-issue those STRC shares. The ~$15 delta per share could be used to buy BTC as pure accretion to MSTR holders, with no net change to amplification.
No doubt that Saylor has already at least considered this, and it wouldn't surprise me if they're currently doing this.
5.
In summary...
The market is freaked out that this depeg is like Terra/Luna... but this is not an asset like that. Strategy's balance sheet determines whether STRC continues to receive dividend payments... and Strategy's balance sheet is completely unchanged.
This is a leverage wipeout.
From this, the market will learn that Digital Credit is mostly very low volatility. But because it is a free market asset, the longer that a Digital Credit instrument trades within a tight range to par... the more leverage will inevitably pile up as people get greedy.
And that creates the conditions for a leverage wipeout depeg. Following that, the instrument will make its way back to par value as the market heals itself and recognizes that the dividend payments will continue uninterrupted because the issuer's balance sheet is unaffected.
Elon Musk becomes the first trillionaire in the world after #SpaceX IPOed. #SPCX is already worth over $2 trillion, which could explain why liquidity in #Bitcoin and other stocks have been drying up lately.
Watch the full video on YouTube https://t.co/oegUKe4Vhh
#ElonMusk#BTC
MSTR bears still haven’t figured out the most basic math on earth.
Strategy’s Bitcoin NAV all-time high was Oct. 6, 2025.
They had ~640,031 BTC.
BTC closed at $124,725.
Gross BTC NAV: ~$79.83B.
Since then, while bears were writing fan fiction about “dilution” and “Ponzi collapse,” Strategy stacked another 205,225 BTC.
They now hold 845,256 BTC.
That means Strategy does not need BTC to return to $124k+ for its Bitcoin NAV to hit a new all-time high.
It only needs BTC back to ~$94,442.
Read that again.
Strategy can break its old BTC NAV ATH with Bitcoin still ~24% BELOW the prior BTC price peak.
At $100k BTC, Strategy’s Bitcoin NAV is already ~$84.5B.
At the old $124.7k close, Strategy’s Bitcoin NAV would be ~$105.4B.
The bears spent the entire drawdown screaming about leverage while Saylor increased the stack by 32%.
They analyzed the wrapper and missed the weapon.
They mocked the machine while the machine lowered the hurdle rate for a new NAV ATH by more than $30,000 per BTC.
This is accumulation domination.
The bear case depends on pretending the numerator stopped growing.
It got 205,225 BTC bigger:
Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/1Zf1AVsP1H
Strategy recently sold 32 Bitcoin and critics immediately claimed Michael Saylor was backtracking on his famous "never sell your Bitcoin" stance. This video reveals the benefits for Strategy to sell BTC: https://t.co/pdQEAH29w2
#MSTR#STRC#MichaelSaylor#Bitcoin#BTC
The UK just made saving harder by proposing tax 22% of cash in S&S ISA + lowering Cash ISA allowance to £12K. Here's why STRC is the better alternative many savers have been searching for. https://t.co/st6wTw4YdS
#ISA#CashISA#Trading212#Trading212ISA#STRC
Jeff Walton’s MSTR story is wild.
He rode it down from ~$1,200 to ~$100, watched the market call Strategyᴮ dead, then looked at the debt profile and said: the market is wrong.
When Bitcoin hit $19k again, he took his bonus, portfolio, retirement accounts, brokerage - even the last $7,500 from his HELOC - and bought long-dated MSTR calls.
Absolute conviction.
Absolutely not for normal humans.
h/t @natbrunell
Credit rating for Strategy will increase as their convertible bonds are paid off. With a stronger credit rating, STRC will become more attractive to larger institutions. Which means more Bitcoin purchases and an increase of Bitcoin per share for MSTR investors.