Mani Mgodeli @cmgodeli - Twitter Profile

CMgodeli retweeted

25 days ago

Six months into 2026, here is what actually happened in the markets this year so far. On the JSE, the standout has been MTN, up around 34 percent since January and still climbing. Among the banks, Capitec gained about 14 percent and Standard Bank around 11 percent, with a healthy dividend yield on top. In retail, Boxer led the way at roughly 18 percent and Shoprite did well at 9 percent, while Spur added around 13 percent. Driven by the oil situation, Sasol surged strongly, and Netcare grew steadily at around 14 percent. But not everyone shared the party. Pick n Pay lost around 16 percent and Woolworths shed about 10 percent. The real disaster was Spar, down roughly 50 percent, with its half-year earnings collapsing by more than half. That was not just bad luck, it was a botched distribution centre and software rollout, heavy promotional costs, and a CEO resignation all landing at once. Naspers and Prosus also struggled, down around 26 and 31 percent. Here is one that surprises people, the popular Satrix 40, a local index many beginners hold, was actually down about 5 percent for the half year. Index is heavy in mining and resource shares, and those got hammered. Bitcoin fell around 33 percent, gold slipped, and the gold miners followed it down, with names like Sibanye, Implats, Harmony and Gold Fields posting losses of up to 42 percent. Anglo American was the exception, gaining around 18 percent. Globally, the story flipped completely. The AI and technology theme carried everything. Intel had an extraordinary run of over 250 percent on the back of its turnaround and major partnerships, with fellow chipmaker AMD up around 170 percent. AstraZeneca, Coca-Cola, Google and Costco all posted gains. Global ETF funds shone too, the Satrix emerging markets feeder up around 22 percent and the Stanlib tech feeder around 16 percent. But even in tech there were losers, with Microsoft, Netflix, Adobe, Facebook and Xiaomi all in the red. The lessons... First, look at how wildly different the outcomes were. In the same six months, one share rose over 250 percent while another fell 50 percent. This is exactly why pouring all your money into single stocks is so dangerous, and why diversification through ETFs spreads that risk. Second, notice that the local Satrix 40 was down while global feeder funds were up sharply. That is the offshore and currency story playing out in real time. If you were invested through a global ETF this year, it worked for you while the local headlines panicked, and that is precisely why global diversification works for us here in Southern Africa. Third, and most important, six months is nothing. These are point-in-time figures and they will look completely different by December. The investor who panics over a bad half year, or chases the stock that just ran 250 percent, usually loses. The one who stays diversified and consistent through it all is the one who wins over time. This is not financial advice, just something to think about.

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Mani Mgodeli

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