Center of Gravity

Center of Gravity is the primary source of power that gives an actor its strength, cohesion, and ability to act

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

September inflation hit 3.7%, while gasoline rose 9.1% in a month. Washington also urged Kyiv to halt refinery strikes it says are worsening the diesel shortage.

Daily context on these points is in Center of Gravity.
https://t.co/gTgMw5uzEK

#Inflation #OillPrices #USAInflation

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

U.S. diesel is about $6.30 a gallon. Washington has issued a licence allowing Russian-origin diesel imports.
The key question is legal: can an OFAC general licence displace a statutory prohibition on Russian imports?

#DieselPrices #RussiaSanctions

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

The legal issue is real, but unresolved. GL135 waives restrictions under sanctions regulations; the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act prohibits imports of Russian-origin Chapter 27 products and sets out a process for ending that prohibition.

#RussiaSanctions #TradeLaw

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

Lana Nusseibeh enters a deadlocked race to lead the UN with unanimous Gulf backing. Grynspan, Grossi, and Rodrigues Birkett each face two potential vetoes. She could emerge as the compromise choice, but Latin America’s claim to the job complicate her path. #UN #UAE

[Noura Al Kaabi | نورة بنت محمد الكعبي @NouraAlKaabi]

UAE's Lana Nusseibeh enters race for next UN secretary general

https://t.co/JCzlitbqRj

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

IMF sees global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. That outlook assumes three things: AI spending, public debt and Gulf energy flows.
This week:
– U.S. 10-year yield: above 5%
– KOSPI: -7.57% on Oct. 15
– Aramco's Dhahran HQ: hit

Which pillar looks weakest?

#IMF #Energy

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

The revived Trump initiative for Ukraine-Russia is not a bad thing, but don't expect results in the near term. Russia needs territory to salvage a 'win' out of this, Ukraine will not give up territory. In the current situation, it's unlikely either side will compromise.

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

#UAE has suspended all trade and financial transactions with #Iran, potentially severing one of Tehran’s most important commercial lifelines. If enforced across Dubai’s banks, ports & re-export networks, this could hurt Iran more than another round of U.S. sanctions. #IranWar‌

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

Prices, since start of the year.

Rice: +45%
Wheat: +33%
Cotton: +31%
Wool: +21%
Rubber: +20%
Sunflower oil: +17%
Palm oil: +16%
Cheese: +16%
Tea: +15%
Soybeans: +14%

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

Drone incursions into #NATO airspace are becoming routine. Latvia has now recorded NATO’s 3rd drone shootdown since May, while Romania, Bulgaria & Germany have faced fresh incursions or suspicious drone activity. #Ukraine’s drone war is increasingly spilling across NATO’s borders

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

Scientists warn that the invasive, insecticide-resistant malaria mosquito Anopheles stephensi is rapidly expanding its range in African cities, potentially placing more than 100 million people at risk. #Africa #Malaria #Geopolitics

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

Japan’s cheap-money era is cracking. Bond yields are at multi-decade highs, making domestic debt more attractive and threatening the global yen carry trade. A rapid unwind could drain demand for U.S. Treasuries, strengthen the yen and trigger synchronized selling across markets.

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury reached 4.75% on 31 July, highest level since Jan 2025; 30-year yield climbed to about 5.25%, highest since 2007. Yields eased slightly today on lower oil prices but still close to levels that could affect housing, investment & fed borrowing costs

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

Ground truth: Japan likely intervened after USD/JPY neared 164, & the U.S. reportedly joined through the NY Fed. Japan is the largest foreign holder of Treasuries, so bond-market spillovers matter. But claims Washington acted mainly to “save” USTs are assessments, not known fact

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

Rising U.S. #Treasury yields are reviving talk of yield curve control (YCC): the Fed capping borrowing costs by buying bonds. Japan shows the danger. YCC can suppress yields temporarily, but distort markets, weaken the currency and make the eventual exit painful.

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

As we've been advising for 18 months - watch the Japanese bond market. It's the linchpin of the global economy. The canary in the coalmine. And right now it needs help. #Japan #bonds #economy

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

Watch the bond markets

[Lloyd's List @LloydsList]

A draft Oman-backed proposal modelled on the Strait of Malacca has emerged as the leading framework for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
https://t.co/dcnjYP55Rq

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

The #KOSPI fell as much as 12.6% today after losing nearly 11% the previous day, putting it on course for its largest two-day decline. SK Hynix and Samsung, which together account for more than half of the index’s capitalization, were at the centre of the rout. #Korea

[Center of Gravity @CoG_Geopol]

Watch the South Korean stock market meltdown. It *might* have global consequences, but in the near term it's a financial disaster for S Koreans who invested because they were priced out of the housing market. This will likely have serious implications for S Korean society.