Combat Edge

Get an edge on MMA and combat sports with the best stats, news and gambling advice.

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

The rankings:

https://t.co/eT1ramatOo

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

With his upset win over Topuria for the @UFC LW belt, @Justin_Gaethje jumps to #3 in the world all-division MMA on our CE Elo Rankings.

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

Big moves in the heavyweight @Combat_Edge_com Elo rankings.

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

With a new signature finish, @SugaSeanMMA has jumped into the 1800s elo and jumped to #4 ranked in the world on the @Combat_Edge_com Elo rankings.

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

Bantamweight Interim Title 🏆

Sean O'Malley (19-3) vs Aiemann Zahabi (14-2)

⚡ CE Elo: O'Malley 1799 | Zahabi 1740
📊 CE Prediction: 73% O'Malley

"Suga" is a -400 favorite but Zahabi brings a 7-fight win streak and elite grappling. 59 Elo point gap — O'Malley's range striking vs Zahabi's grind.

Winner likely next for the BW title.

https://t.co/50UfCbOZn7

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

Mauricio Ruffy has jumped to #20 in the world based on the Combat Edge Elo rankings with his impressive win against Chandler tonigth.

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

@NoBickal Check out full rankings here:

https://t.co/1RdtuOc0AX

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

After his first round finish tonight, @NoBickal has jumped 20 points in the @Combat_Edge_com Elo rankings.

He now sits at 17 in the world.

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

MAIN EVENT — Lightweight Title Unification 🏆

Ilia Topuria (17-0) vs Justin Gaethje (27-5)

⚡ CE Elo: Topuria 1849 | Gaethje 1855
📊 CE Prediction: 71% Topuria

Undefeated "El Matador" defends against interim champ "The Highlight." Gaethje has never won the undisputed belt. Topuria promised a R1 KO. Heated rivalry.

https://t.co/EBaiIHcLWD

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

CO-MAIN — Interim Heavyweight Title 🏆

Alex Pereira (13-3) vs Ciryl Gane (13-2)

⚡ CE Elo: Pereira 1806 | Gane 1810
📊 CE Prediction: 50/50

Pereira chasing a historic 3rd UFC belt (MW → LHW → HW). "Bon Gamin" wants HW gold with Aspinall sidelined after eye surgery.

Dead even on Elo and CE prediction model. True coin flip.

https://t.co/Iu3oAN9oAs

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

Bantamweight Interim Title 🏆

Sean O'Malley (19-3) vs Aiemann Zahabi (14-2)

⚡ CE Elo: O'Malley 1799 | Zahabi 1740
📊 CE Prediction: 73% O'Malley

"Suga" is a -400 favorite but Zahabi brings a 7-fight win streak and elite grappling. 59 Elo point gap — O'Malley's range striking vs Zahabi's grind.

Winner likely next for the BW title.

https://t.co/50UfCbOZn7

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

Heavyweight bout at UFC White House

Josh Hokit (9-0) vs Derrick Lewis (29-13)

⚡ CE Elo: Hokit 1724 | Lewis 1760
📊 CE Prediction: 55% Hokit

Undefeated "The Incredible Hok" vs the UFC's all-time HW KO king "The Black Beast." Lewis has 36 Elo points on Hokit, but the model still favors the rising star.

https://t.co/rkwiXSN8c6

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

Lightweight bout at UFC Freedom 250

Mauricio Ruffy (13-2) vs Michael Chandler (23-10)

⚡ CE Elo: Ruffy 1728 | Chandler 1748
📊 CE Prediction: 77% Ruffy

"Iron" Chandler is on a 3-fight skid and a massive +500 underdog. Ruffy is a rising finisher built for spectacular KOs. Could be Chandler's last stand at the White House.

https://t.co/6HKVxU88nG

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

Middleweight bout at the White House Card

Bo Nickal (8-1) vs Kyle Daukaus (17-4)

⚡ CE Elo: Nickal 1724 | Daukaus 1735
📊 CE Prediction: 50/50

3x NCAA wrestling champ Nickal rebounded with a head-kick KO over Vieira. "The D'Arce Knight" Daukaus is a BJJ ace. Grappler vs grappler — dead even on the Elo.

https://t.co/uZffaa0AdB

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

Featherweight — Card Opener

Diego Lopes (27-8) vs Steve Garcia (19-5)

⚡ CE Elo: Lopes 1769 | Garcia 1736
📊 CE Prediction: 67% Lopes

"Mean Machine" Garcia rides a 7-fight win streak into his biggest test. Lopes has the 33-point Elo edge — but Garcia has earned this shot and he's dangerous.

https://t.co/xTVAQkMkU7

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

🏛️ UFC Freedom 250 — TONIGHT from the White House South Lawn

⏰ 8 PM ET | Paramount+
📍 Washington, D.C.
🌡️ 88°F at fight time, heat index mid-90s
⛈️ 30-40% storm chance during the main card

7 fights. 3 title bouts. History (good or bad) on the South Lawn.

Full card, Elo ratings & predictions:
https://t.co/wWV1y3jNpc

[Fred Lambert @FredLambert]

Combat Edge's Elo system has been live for the last 2 weeks in beta testing.

I think this is the best possible way to rank MMA fighters. It's fair, takes opinions out of the equation, and works across promotions - helping with matchmakings at all levels.

There's still work to be done, and we are open to criticism.

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

https://t.co/uiLFF0xJzK

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

MAIN EVENT | Welterweight

@bullyb170 — Decision leads 75% of his wins. 60% TD accuracy, 4.43 sig. strikes/min. The consummate grinder.

@bonfimgabriel — Submission leads 68% of his wins. 1.44 sub attempts per 15 min vs Muhammad's 0.14. And 90% TD defense.

Muhammad needs takedowns. Bonfim stuffs 9 of 10 attempts. If this hits the mat on Bonfim's terms, the submission threat is real.

Muhammad 1818 (#5 WW, 24-5) vs Bonfim 1791 (#11 WW, 19-1).

https://t.co/soor5tdB9g

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

CO-MAIN | Middleweight

81% of @EdmenShahbazyan's wins come by KO/TKO. One of the highest finishing rates on the card. 3 straight wins including a KO of Muniz.

@BrendanAllenMMA wins 54% by submission. 1.14 sub avg per 15 min. 66% TD accuracy vs Shahbazyan's 57% TD defense.

Nearly identical striking output (~3.7 sig. strikes/min each). The difference is how they finish: Allen grapples, Shahbazyan knocks you out.

Allen 1809 (#5 MW, 26-7) vs Shahbazyan 1729 (16-5).

https://t.co/zqI0HqcK3Y

[Combat Edge @Combat_Edge_com]

MAIN CARD | Featherweight

Santiago Luna: 8.20 sig. strikes/min. Featherweight avg: 4.46. Almost double the division's output. 8-0 at 21 years old.

@ThugnastyMMA: 82% TD accuracy. 83% TD defense. Submission leads 50% of his wins. Elite wrestler.

The matchup stat: Luna has just 33% TD defense. Mitchell will get his takedowns. But Luna's volume — 8.20 strikes/min — means Mitchell eats shots on every entry.

Mitchell 1763 (Great) vs Luna 1686 (Good). 77-point gap.

https://t.co/EkzTafAWbk